bristolri_wx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, Childude645 said: https://www.weather.gov/mhx/HurricaneBob1991EventReview . Not really? Bob formed from a wave off the Florida coast. Lee is a long-tracker. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Still amazes me how well Gloria was forecast about 1 week out in ‘85. All forecasts had it hitting somewhere on the E coast 1 week+. And here we are in 2023 with such uncertainty about Lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 25 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Can't get to excited until it gets to 75 West. Almost everything that hits us has to get that far west or it recurves... a lot more variation in latitude than longitude... Excellent post. I have zero interest in this because it looks to run up 70W. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Diggiebot said: What storm in the last 20 years has looked statistically better at hitting NE than this? It’s still relatively low but I’ll take tracking this. The cards are there but we need a turn and a river to seal it. Extremely remote chance, but track away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 33 minutes ago, Childude645 said: Any one seeing similarities to Bob 91 Track? . No. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 If this could some how miss the trough and heads towards FL, then I'd be all in. But unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Extremely remote chance, but track away. Yeah, makes sense to take the models with a grain of salt right now. It’s still 10 days away and climatology says a major hurricane landfalling in New England is unlikely especially during a strong El Niño. If it’s still there by day 5 then I’ll be interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Childude645 said: Any one seeing similarities to Bob 91 Track? . Closer to Edouard in 1996 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 0z locks in a near-miss, Canada in play at least. NEXT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 EPS now with members making LF in MA and Maine. First run to have hits and overnight trends continued west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Some members definitely interesting. Need that to continue though for any interest. Otherwise it’s congrats Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 This will be ticking west. Anyone counting this out now is nuts. I'm seeing stronger SE Canada ridging and a stronger Midwest trough. You only need a couple hundred miles of adjustments which is easily attainable well over a week out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: This will be ticking west. Anyone counting this out now is nuts. I'm seeing stronger SE Canada ridging and a stronger Midwest trough. You only need a couple hundred miles of adjustments which is easily attainable well over a week out. The models are starting to show more separation between Margot and Lee. This would help keep the ridge in the Atlantic intact . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 And it’s still 10 days away…lol. We watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The models are starting to show more separation between Margot and Lee. This would help keep the ridge in the Atlantic intact . Well it’s staying intriguing…all you can ask at this point. There will be other surprises(like Margot, good or not) coming along too that we can’t see just yet, that will be influential as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 20 minutes ago, Hazey said: And it’s still 10 days away…lol. We watch. Definitely a higher likelihood for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely a higher likelihood for you. It is…but at this lead, that can change Alot too. Still way out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: It is…but at this lead, that can change Alot too. Still way out there. I’m still not too excited about it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m still not too excited about it. I know you’re not..but that can change too. I’m not excited per se either, just intrigued currently. There are some ingredients there that can be big players, whether they do is yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I know you’re not..but that can change too. I’m not excited per se either, just intrigued currently. There are some ingredients there that can be big players, whether they do is yet to be determined. He actually is. Trust me 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 I think One thing that Is Likely being over estimated is Lee’s winds when it tracks @ our latitude . It’s going to be a very mature hurricane early next week , and it’s going to go thru multiple ERC’s and expand into quite a large storm by mid next week . It’s pressure can be 960’s to 970’s and be a borderline Cat 1 cane after it travels (not super fast) but at moderate speed just past Bermuda’s latitude The Ocean fuel near Bermuda supportive of a strong cane has been upwelled by Franklin and Idalia. It may begin to revover a bit over the next 3 days but soon it will be upwelled again . One example is tropical storm Earl had 965 pressure as it passed a bit East of our latitude (70mph) winds . Unless of course models can speed up Lee’s forward speed between Bermuda General area And our latitude (also if it goes west of current track ) While it’s North of Puerto Rico this will peak probably Sunday’ish near a cat 5, and by Tuesday while sw of Bermuda NHC has this down to 130 as a slow moving large Cat 3. There are several examples of N Atlantic very large mature tropical systems of lower pressure (965-970 mb) but that are now large storms with max winds 60-70 knots . I think there is a good chance Lee could be one at 41N latitude The Surf is going to be massive , and the only way I see that not occurring to that degree if the future M storm tracks closer on models and opens up an escape by eroding Atlantic ridge faster (this is not currently modeled to do that nearly enough to cause an earlIer recurve (Over or SE of Bermuda ) that would minimize swell for NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Seems like NHC a little too bullish with Lee, yesterday. We’ll see if it takes off later today into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 9 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Made landfall on Long Island and then in CT. Some info I looked up said cat 3 on landfall in LI. Some other info said cat 2 on landfall. NHC said cat 3 on first landfall in LI, but then it made another landfall in Groton, CT. Whether it was a cat 3 at that point I don’t know…? But whatever..it’s close I guess. Eye went right over GON, RI coast in RFQ . BID 125 mph before anemometer snapped. Surge was a 3 wind a 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I think One thing that Is Likely being over estimated is Lees winds when it tracks @ our latitude . It’s going to be a very mature hurricane early next week , and it’s going to go thru multiple ERC’s and expand into quite a large storm by mid next week . It’s pressure can be 960’s to 970’s and be a borderline Cat 1 cane after it travels (not super fast) but at moderate speed just past Bermuda’s latitude The Ocean fuel near Bermuda supportive of a strong cane has been upwelled by Franklin and Idalia. It may begin to revover a bit over the next 3 days but soon it will be upwelled again . One (extreme) example is tropical storm opal had 965 pressure in that area. While it’s North of Puerto Rico this will peak probably Sunday’ish near a cat 5, and by Tuesday while sw of Bermuda NHC has this down to 130 as a slow moving large Cat 3. There are several examples of N Atlantic very large mature tropical systems of lower pressure (965-970 mb) but that are now large storms with max winds 60-70 knots . I think there is a good chance Lee could be one at 41N latitude The Surf is going to be massive , and the only way I see that not occurring to that degree if the future M storm tracks closer on models and opens up an escape by eroding Atlantic ridge faster (this is not currently modeled to do that nearly enough to cause an earlIre recurve (Over or SE of Bermuda ) that would minimize swell for NE Just got wood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seems like NHC a little too bullish with Lee, yesterday. We’ll see if it takes off later today into tomorrow. About to take off now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I’m still not too excited about it. Over a week away. What could go wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I’m still not too excited about it. Not at all....even if it somehow got pulled up here, it wouldn't be too strong. This is mainly a high surf ordeal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: EPS now with members making LF in MA and Maine. First run to have hits and overnight trends continued west Even the couple that hit the cape would not be a big deal for the vast majority of us....a nor 'easter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 I would like to see that one GEFS member that plows it into FL pan out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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