2023 - tracking the tropics

[WeatherHappens]

  On 9/6/2023 at 7:39 PM, tunafish said:

-Watches clips of a few looting incidents online, none of which are happening within 100 miles.  Extrapolates to "all our neighborhoods".

-Most definitely goes to bed with all exterior lights, and several interior lights, on for "safety"

EDIT:   I see OT posts are being deleted, so I'll save you the trouble and delete this in a minute.

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Someone should start a Banter thread.

[tunafish]

  On 9/6/2023 at 7:44 PM, WeatherHappens said:

Someone should start a Banter thread.

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[bristolri_wx]

  On 9/6/2023 at 7:44 PM, WeatherHappens said:

Someone should start a Banter thread.

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No looting in here so far!

 

[WeatherHappens]

[Damage In Tolland]

Each run farther west . Things you love to see 

[CoastalWx]

  On 9/6/2023 at 8:32 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Each run farther west . Things you love to see 

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00z was better. But means nothing really.

[WinterWolf]

Lots of moving on parts…lots to figure out. Some big players look to be there, but can they come together enough…

[WinterWolf]

  On 9/6/2023 at 5:02 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You could play that game with every system though.

This is no different than why it’s really hard to get a massive winter storm up here generally. A shitstreak appears out of nowhere to screw it up.

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A massive winter storm for SNE…?  C’mon Brett you’re better than this, we see one almost every year in SNE. Sometimes a couple.  And it’s exponentially easier to get a Blizzard to hit us, than a Major Hurricane. Haven’t had a true major H hit SNE in 85 yrs.  We’ve had dozens of big winter storms in that same time period. 

[WeatherHappens]

  On 9/6/2023 at 8:46 PM, WinterWolf said:

A massive winter storm for SNE…?  C’mon Brett you’re better than this, we see one almost every year in SNE. Sometimes a couple.  And it’s exponentially easier to get a Blizzard to hit us, than a Major Hurricane. Haven’t had a true major H hit SNE in 85 yrs.  We’ve had dozens of big winter storms in that same time period. 

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Bob was a pretty big hit for RI.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

  On 9/6/2023 at 8:46 PM, WinterWolf said:

A massive winter storm for SNE…?  C’mon Brett you’re better than this, we see one almost every year in SNE. Sometimes a couple.  And it’s exponentially easier to get a Blizzard to hit us, than a Major Hurricane. Haven’t had a true major H hit SNE in 85 yrs.  We’ve had dozens of big winter storms in that same time period. 

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Carol, 54 was a major. But the point remains the same. I really like an Eduardo 96 type track for this one. Close but no cigar. 

[WeatherHappens]

Officially Hurricane Lee.

[SouthCoastMA]

  On 9/6/2023 at 1:12 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

Most likely path is still between Bermuda and Nantucket. Doesn't mean things couldn't improve. 

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Still a long ways out

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 9/6/2023 at 7:30 PM, CoastalWx said:

Lots of spread on EPS. Still OTS for many it seems. This is the non-SkyNet ensemble.   

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I disagree with the assertion of this being a test of technology for an event still beyond 7 days from now... especially 10.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 9/6/2023 at 8:30 PM, WeatherHappens said:

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51 members and 0 west of Boston. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 9/6/2023 at 9:28 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

51 members and 0 west of Boston. 

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The mean continues shifting west on both EPS and GEFS 

[CoastalWx]

  On 9/6/2023 at 9:26 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I disagree with the assertion of this being a test of technology for an event still beyond 7 days from now... especially 10.

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I agree too.

[kdxken]

Stein with a fish

"Powerful hurricane forecast to be east of the Carolinas next weekend from there it should turn north-northeast not bothering the United States. Could be some good surfing however. Still need to watch how the atmosphere unfolds for any changes. #Lee

 

https://twitter.com/growingwisdom/status/1699543002249564435?s=20

[Damage In Tolland]

We question and call bluff

https://x.com/tollandkev/status/1699548004951236820?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 9/6/2023 at 8:46 PM, WinterWolf said:

A massive winter storm for SNE…?  C’mon Brett you’re better than this, we see one almost every year in SNE. Sometimes a couple.  And it’s exponentially easier to get a Blizzard to hit us, than a Major Hurricane. Haven’t had a true major H hit SNE in 85 yrs.  We’ve had dozens of big winter storms in that same time period. 

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Maybe that was the wrong way to word it. My point mainly was, it’s hard to get a tropical system up here because a lot needs to go right. It just doesn’t line up often. All it takes is one thing and she gone.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 9/6/2023 at 5:11 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m sure this will end up anywhere but here. Probably twisting 1000 miles se of Nantucket.

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  On 9/6/2023 at 8:30 PM, WeatherHappens said:

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  On 9/6/2023 at 9:12 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

Still a long ways out

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[CoastalWx]

Buy whiff and sell hit until further notice.

[brooklynwx99]

  On 9/6/2023 at 10:48 PM, CoastalWx said:

Buy whiff and sell hit until further notice.

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saying there's a chance at a legit landfall at this range is like saying there's a shot at a day 10 KU with a +AO and a SE ridge

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 9/6/2023 at 10:50 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

saying there's a chance at a legit landfall at this range is like saying there's a shot at a day 10 KU with a +AO and a SE ridge

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In the winter you’d have 14 animations showing a hit . And then it would miss . This is fascinating 

[WeatherHappens]

  On 9/6/2023 at 10:57 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

In the winter you’d have 14 animations showing a hit . And then it would miss . This is fascinating 

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Your second Cat4 hurricane breaks down the ridging and allows Lee to exit stage right.

[brooklynwx99]

  On 9/6/2023 at 10:57 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

In the winter you’d have 14 animations showing a hit . And then it would miss . This is fascinating 

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if talking how about a winter pattern evolves and honking about a hurricane that likely misses 200 miles offshore are the same, I do not know what to tell you

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 9/6/2023 at 11:02 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

if talking how about a winter pattern evolves and honking about a hurricane that likely misses 200 miles offshore are the same, I do not know what to tell you

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There’s no way you or anyone else knows how the pattern and storm track are going to evolve 9 days out. Right now anything is equally possible . And that is fact. No option is favored 

[CoastalWx]

  On 9/6/2023 at 11:04 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s no way you or anyone else knows how the pattern and storm track are going to evolve 9 days out. Right now anything is equally possible . And that is fact. No option is favored 

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Don’t do it…….

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 9/6/2023 at 11:06 PM, CoastalWx said:

Don’t do it…….

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I am on team Shabbs. The fact he is invested is VERY telling 

[FXWX]

  On 9/6/2023 at 11:08 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I am on team Shabbs. The fact he is invested is VERY telling 

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Define invested...

[CoastalWx]

  On 9/6/2023 at 11:09 PM, FXWX said:

Define invested...

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Leaning towards a miss. Lol.