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2023 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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  On 9/5/2023 at 4:40 PM, CoastalWx said:

Too bad the trough we hoped and wanted lifts out on the GFS op. 

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every run has different ideas on the spacing and temporal-spacing.

...not sold on any one of them -

I'm also suspicious that the GFS may be responsive to too much application of beta mechanics causing the track to curve too soon along that model's cinema.  

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  On 9/5/2023 at 4:54 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

every run has different ideas on the spacing and temporal-spacing.

...not sold on any one of them -

I'm also suspicious that the GFS may be responsive to too much application of beta mechanics causing the track to curve too soon along that model's cinema.  

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You could see two notable things. One was the ridging a little stronger to the north and the first initial trough weaker and lifting out. That allowed for a more srn track.

But, the trough that was the feature to help "suck" this up also lifted out. So the only way this got close, was that the ridge to its east actually was dam strong. Otherwise it would have curved NE much more abruptly.

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  On 9/5/2023 at 5:03 PM, CoastalWx said:

You could see two notable things. One was the ridging a little stronger to the north and the first initial trough weaker and lifting out. That allowed for a more srn track.

But, the trough that was the feature to help "suck" this up also lifted out. So the only way this got close, was that the ridge to its east actually was dam strong. Otherwise it would have curved NE much more abruptly.

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Yeah... per this run, it was precariously missing just enough to max out the heart ache and hand wringing  hahaha. 

I've maintained from the get go that beyond ~ D6 ... that is entering a "predictive event horizon" - based in no small part on continuity issues with guidance between ORD-D.C. and NF triangulum; that is creating a virtual boundary in time and space beyond which there is zero knowing. 

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  On 9/5/2023 at 5:03 PM, CoastalWx said:

You could see two notable things. One was the ridging a little stronger to the north and the first initial trough weaker and lifting out. That allowed for a more srn track.

But, the trough that was the feature to help "suck" this up also lifted out. So the only way this got close, was that the ridge to its east actually was dam strong. Otherwise it would have curved NE much more abruptly.

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Yeah that's how we do it. Forget about a negative tilt OV/TN valley trough absorbing/capturing it, that's a pipe dream. I'd rather a big blocking high to the northeast run a squeeze play situation. As we mentioned Sunday

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  On 9/5/2023 at 5:30 PM, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah that's how we do it. Forget about a negative tilt OV/TN valley trough absorbing/capturing it, that's a pipe dream. I'd rather a big blocking high to the northeast run a squeeze play situation. As we mentioned Sunday

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Pipe dream it might be but the number of hits when you are relying only on a high is even tougher.  That almost always has westward model bias that almost never works...  not arguing it can allow a close call or a Cape sideswipe, but the history of a big hit without the trough interaction are even rarer...  at least something to keep watching; especially for Cape to NS...

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  On 9/5/2023 at 5:51 PM, FXWX said:

Pipe dream it might be but the number of hits when you are relying only on a high is even tougher.  That almost always has westward model bias that almost never works...  not arguing it can allow a close call or a Cape sideswipe, but the history of a big hit without the trough interaction are even rarer...  at least something to keep watching; especially for Cape to NS...

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May be more difficult or rare, but both Carol and Edna occurred in this type of regime. 

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  On 9/5/2023 at 5:51 PM, FXWX said:

Pipe dream it might be but the number of hits when you are relying only on a high is even tougher.  That almost always has westward model bias that almost never works...  not arguing it can allow a close call or a Cape sideswipe, but the history of a big hit without the trough interaction are even rarer...  at least something to keep watching; especially for Cape to NS...

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  On 9/5/2023 at 5:55 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Shabbs likes it and thinks it’s got a shot 

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  On 9/5/2023 at 5:59 PM, Torch Tiger said:

May be more difficult or rare, but both Carol and Edna occurred in this type of regime. 

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Hmmm... a hint of similarity, but with some significant differences... both had a more of an approaching trough with some capture / tug impacts...   Again, not saying it wouldn't be close or interesting, but need to see some trough support...

Here are the 500 mb maps for Edna followed by Carol at approach to Carolina coast....

image.png.5341ec3be47658d59006f22c461fdd1b.png

 

image.png.0e9e8e1741ddbe4a965a1b1b018d9e4d.png

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