2023 - tracking the tropics

[WxWatcher007]

  On 9/4/2023 at 2:38 AM, Torch Tiger said:

perfect really.  Just don't want to see a broad trough/westerlies way south into the GL/NE beyond D9-10, much rather take chances with high heights and a squeeze play between highs, ala 54 Carol.

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Absolutely. I’ll roll the dice on a pig ridge. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 9/4/2023 at 4:40 AM, MJO812 said:

Weenie run

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Recurve AWT

[ineedsnow]

[ineedsnow]

6z crushes

[ineedsnow]

We pray!!

[ineedsnow]

[Ginx snewx]

  On 9/4/2023 at 10:50 AM, ineedsnow said:

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Totally an outlier. Recurve early on all ENS and ops

[CoastalWx]

  On 9/4/2023 at 11:07 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Totally an outlier. Recurve early on all ENS and ops

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We recurve 

[Ginx snewx]

GFS rapidly decaying system. Probably a TS at LF

[Ginx snewx]

  On 9/4/2023 at 11:10 AM, CoastalWx said:

We recurve 

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We love curves.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 9/4/2023 at 11:10 AM, CoastalWx said:

We recurve 

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For this one run . This is the one 

[SnoSki14]

  On 9/4/2023 at 11:10 AM, CoastalWx said:

We recurve 

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I mean 95% of the time that's the right answer but once in a while it doesn't.

Too far out to know for sure right now. 

Looks like a blocking high builds in as the storm is SW of Bermuda that could send it NW near the east coast. Isabel like track perhaps?

Probably the only way this gets to the US as there's no big negative tilt Midwest/Ohio Valley trough that'll tug it west. 

[MJO812]

  On 9/4/2023 at 11:10 AM, CoastalWx said:

We recurve 

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Too early to say

[WxWatcher007]

OTS still favored given the ensembles, perhaps even heavily, but it’s still too early to lock in any one solution—especially since we don’t have a well defined center yet. The op runs don’t mean anything right now, and color me skeptical on the ensembles being right in picking out the exact orientation, strength, and timing of troughing 7-10 days out. 

It’s really ok to be patient and watch things play out. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 9/4/2023 at 11:40 AM, MJO812 said:

Too early to say

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Adios Mother humper

[Torch Tiger]

  On 9/4/2023 at 12:13 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Adios Mother humper

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that really doesn't show anything.

[WinterWolf]

Lmao….the Ginxys and scooters just playing the overwhelming odds of a recurve, and crushing the hopes and dreams of folks.  
 

99% of the time it’s gonna be a recurve. Go with that every time, and you’ll be right every time(except within the last  100 yrs when it wasn’t like in ‘38 and in the 50’s with Carol and Diane and in ‘85 with Gloria, and with Bob in ‘91, and in 2011 with Irene, and 2012 with Sandy, and in 2020 with Isaias)….And yes, most times it’s a decaying dying mess if and when it does get up here, so it’s just really not much of a big deal even when it does hit. 
 

“BUT”, it’s is much too early to know this 100% goes OTS, at this early stage.  So Play the odds and you’ll most likely look smart 99% of the time(although persistence forecasting will eventually bite), as that’s always the obvious and most likely answer.  I agree, this is a recurve and a miss, only because it almost always is. But there are some interesting players looking to come on the field as 95L starts to approach, that could entice him for a visit.  But it’s To early to say definitively if he actually gets a true invitation.  

But at the very least, we now have something to watch over the next week, which breaks the boring monotony of the late summer doldrums. 
 

 

[Sn0waddict]

Probably not a good sign for a hit if it’s showing said hit 250+ hours out lol  

[WinterWolf]

  On 9/4/2023 at 12:51 PM, Sn0waddict said:

Probably not a good sign for a hit if it’s showing said hit 250+ hours out lol  

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And then there’s that too lol.
 

My only take away from these runs that show it approaching, is that there are now some players appearing that “could” make things at least somewhat interesting. 

[Torch Tiger]

  On 9/4/2023 at 11:10 AM, Ginx snewx said:

GFS rapidly decaying system. Probably a TS at LF

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that's still a decent hit for eastern areas/Cape

[Torch Tiger]

6z shows how it would need to be done, if it's to approach up here.  250mb jet placement and shape is really good, too bad it's so far out

[MJO812]

I'm praying

We need interesting weather 

[kdxken]

  On 9/4/2023 at 12:10 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

OTS still favored given the ensembles, perhaps even heavily, but it’s still too early to lock in any one solution—especially since we don’t have a well defined center yet. The op runs don’t mean anything right now, and color me skeptical on the ensembles being right in picking out the exact orientation, strength, and timing of troughing 7-10 days out. 

It’s really ok to be patient and watch things play out. 

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"It’s really ok to be patient and watch things play out"

You must be new here.

[WxWatcher007]

  On 9/4/2023 at 1:53 PM, kdxken said:

"It’s really ok to be patient and watch things play out"

You must be new here.

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I laughed when I typed that. That's not how we do business around here. 

[Hoth]

In the vein of "it's never aliens until it's aliens", it's never a NE landfall until it's an NE landfall. In the meantime, this is far more entertaining than

[WxWatcher007]

Intensity guidance has this thing really taking off in just a couple days. Like I said in the tropical subforum OP, this is as good a signal for a long track major hurricane I've seen in a while.  

[WinterWolf]

  On 9/4/2023 at 1:57 PM, Hoth said:

In the vein of "it's never aliens until it's aliens", it's never a NE landfall until it's an NE landfall. In the meantime, this is far more entertaining than

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Yes, 100% agree.  And like you said, it’s something to look at instead of the nothing that has been our weather of late..,I mean even San Diego got a hurricane lmao, talk about low probability there, now maybe this is the year we get our turn too? 

[WinterWolf]

Off topic some, but Was just thinking how the “I” named Tropical cyclones have been so notorious….Ione, Inez, Isabel, Irene, Ian, Isaias, Isidore, Igor, Ike, Ida, Irma, Ivan, Idalia.  I mean that I storm has been a bitch and infamous for many. That’s amazing when you think about it.  “I” has the most retired names of any letter in the Atlantic. 
 

Ok, back to our originally scheduled programming. 

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1698703255428067726?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Hoth]

  On 9/4/2023 at 3:30 PM, WinterWolf said:

Off topic some, but Was just thinking how the “I” named Tropical cyclones have been so notorious….Ione, Inez, Isabel, Irene, Ian, Isaias, Isidore, Igor, Ike, Ida, Irma, Ivan, Idalia.  I mean that I storm has been a bitch and infamous for many. That’s amazing when you think about it.  “I” has the most retired names of any letter in the Atlantic. 
 

Ok, back to our originally scheduled programming. 

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Kinda makes sense?  Deep enough in the alphabet that it tends to show up near the peak of the season when climo is most favorable for powerful storms.