40/70 Benchmark Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 On 8/25/2023 at 7:32 AM, WxWatcher007 said: All the Cat 5’s to hit the US were TS three days before landfall. That’s incredible to me. It makes sense to me because they don't have time for ERCs and other fluctuations. Most storms don't sustain that intensity for long, so you want rapid spin ups. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 @STILL N OF PIKE It’s lurking for sure, and you can kind of see how that may keep the system sputtering a bit in the Gulf tomorrow, but then the signal for intensification through landfall Tuesday/Wednesday remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: @STILL N OF PIKE It’s lurking for sure, and you can kind of see how that may keep the system sputtering a bit in the Gulf tomorrow, but then the signal for intensification through landfall Tuesday/Wednesday remains. Just named , it’s in a juicy area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 I have a cavalier attitude toward this system, even CAT5 IAN for which I prepared for. My area: Power was out 6days, highest wind speed ~60-70mph. a fringe job and more an inconvenient nuisance. Everything returned to "normal" in day or two. Still time to stock-up if the track moves E and intensity ramps-up. Most of the hurricane models do just that (950-970MB). I've been in and out of the cone of uncertainty. The last few SAT images are beginning to show good outflow in the RFQ. Appears Idalia will look better than Franklin (larger) might even take on an annular appearance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 2 hours ago, ROOSTA said: I have a cavalier attitude toward this system, even CAT5 IAN for which I prepared for. My area: Power was out 6days, highest wind speed ~60-70mph. a fringe job and more an inconvenient nuisance. Everything returned to "normal" in day or two. Still time to stock-up if the track moves E and intensity ramps-up. Most of the hurricane models do just that (950-970MB). I've been in and out of the cone of uncertainty. The last few SAT images are beginning to show good outflow in the RFQ. Appears Idalia will look better than Franklin (larger) might even take on an annular appearance. Yeah Franklin is a small storm. That will limit swell production despite a great track for NE waves. It will still be a solid swell but peaking in the 8-10’ range rather then 12-18 in the greats like Bill august 08. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 NHC 11pm update “Strengthening Quickly” SSW of Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: NHC 11pm update “Strengthening Quickly” SSW of Cuba Outperforming already high expectations.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Outperforming already high expectations.. Well it’s either all systems go or the deep convection lets up Soon prior to being able to sustain a inner core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Well it’s either all systems go or the deep convection lets up Soon prior to being able to sustain a inner core I think the dice have been cast at this point, and it’s not looking good for Florida. It’s very possible that this latest attempt at an inner core falls short, but even if it does the system is undoubtedly more organized. That will make it more resilient to any shear/dry air until upper level diffluence gets involved…which should get it to a new level. This is a short range forecast at this point. Probably inside 60 hours to landfall. If I had to guess right now, we end up somewhere between 105-115kts, but this is a volatile one. I’d also watch for a system with lower central pressure but broader wind field. That’d actually be the worst case for FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I think the dice have been cast at this point, and it’s not looking good for Florida. It’s very possible that this latest attempt at an inner core falls short, but even if it does the system is undoubtedly more organized. That will make it more resilient to any shear/dry air until upper level diffluence gets involved…which should get it to a new level. This is a short range forecast at this point. Probably inside 60 hours to landfall. If I had to guess right now, we end up somewhere between 105-115kts, but this is a volatile one. I’d also watch for a system with lower central pressure but broader wind field. That’d actually be the worst case for FL. Looks like a lot of action going on the next week or so with these tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Every now and then one gets a feeling, a pit in the stomach, an adrenaline rush. That gut feeling especially watching the threat become more foreboding. Trend is not your friend; I've said this before. These events you don't want to experience for obvious reasons. I'm not liking the upward trend in strength, as in probably a Major Hurricane at LF. Track has been steady to a wobble or two. Huge implications re: TB (lower chance) up to Cedar Key (higher chance) Ensembles confirm with nearly 1/2 W with the other 1/2 to the E in the spread. 11pm. update- oh look I'm back in the "cone" Very healthy, stronger, located further S and E than any of the prior advisories. (Estimated) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Here is my first stab at it. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/newly-formed-idalia-likely-to-strike.html?m=1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Cat 4 is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Franklin looking good this morning. I wonder if Idalia will look like this near/at landfall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Congrats Cedar Key. They’re due for a biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 52 minutes ago, metagraphica said: Franklin looking good this morning. I wonder if Idalia will look like this near/at landfall. Fantastic wave generating storm. The amazing thing is, just as the Franklin swell fades away we are going to get another burst of swell from Idalia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Pre chances with the front coming through 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Franklin going sick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Frankie looking solid this morning. High end cat 4 attainable? Still think this may take a swipe at St. John's and possibly at good intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Idalia is still tilted, *never seen RI *until that gets fixed . Usually takes some time as well . I think that will be the saving grace for Florida if I could count on my hand every time someone underestimated how much a tilted center Inhibits RI I would need 10 hands. If this gets aligned I’ll be ready for potential RI , till then nope 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 I would be willing to bet that Tampa bay does not see much resembling hurricane conditions Despite a hurricane warning being issued for the Tampa coast . I think this is more forecasting for worst case scenario or just so that preparations are In place In case this shifts East , esp given last year in fort Myers area . The area is just very prone to surge and I think they want people taking it seriously . The steering currents on this one is so much more straight forward then the headache of trying to forecast the “turn” with Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I would be willing to bet that Tampa bay does not see much resembling hurricane conditions Despite a hurricane warning being issued for the Tampa coast . I think this is more forecasting for worst case scenario or just so that preparations are In place In case this shifts East , esp given last year in fort Myers area . The area is just very prone to surge and I think they want people taking it seriously . The steering currents on this one is so much more straight forward then the headache of trying to forecast the “turn” with Ian. The lessons of Charlie not forgotten... That storm showed what even a modest shift in the discrete track can do to civility that musta felt rather secure in the 6-12 hourly position offered up by the 2004 state of the art ... Granted, normally above the 95 percentile confidence - a 15 mile "tick" or wobble. It shifted like 15 miles S as it was nearing the coast. I recall patrons of a diner that clearly had it's roof peeled off in the background, being interviewed... They were coming off as though it were somehow the prediction fault they were "caught off guard". There's no accounting for the profound stupidity found in the general population. Just slack-jawed wrong for more reasons to begin with here. So hands being cuffed by lack of another method ...they have to over guess the impact region. This thing has east bump nearing the coast written all over it, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 This should be a cat 4 at LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This should be a cat 4 at LF Negative lets pretend and wager thou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The lessons of Charlie not forgotten... That storm showed what even a modest shift in the discrete track can do to civility that musta felt rather secure in the 6-12 hourly position offered up by the 2004 state of the art ... Granted, normally above the 95 percentile confidence - a 15 mile "tick" or wobble. It shifted like 15 miles S as it was nearing the coast. I recall patrons of a diner that clearly had it's roof peeled off in the background, being interviewed... They were coming off as though it were somehow the prediction fault they were "caught off guard". There's no accounting for the profound stupidity found in the general population. Striking wrong for more reasons to begin with here. So hands being cuffed by lack of another method ...they have to over guess the impact region. This thing has east bump nearing the coast written all over it, too. This has zero relevance to Charlie or Ian regarding steering . Those both had deep gulf trough dropping in and very difficult track forecasts to pinpoint . Sure it can nudge 15 miles East on a NNE/Ne heading but it’s not turning ENE off of Tampa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Negative lets pretend and wager thou It’s got nothing but positives ahead. Nothing holding it back from rapid intensification starting tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: This has zero relevance to Charlie or Ian regarding steering . Those both had deep gulf trough dropping in and very difficult track forecasts to pinpoint . Sure it can nudge 15 miles East on a NNE/Ne heading but it’s not turning ENE off of Tampa The point is the 'lesson' no comparison was being suggested - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s got nothing but positives ahead. Nothing holding it back from rapid intensification starting tonight So wager or just KGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 What about our PRE? No one seems to be talking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 52 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: So wager or just KGW One thing Pic right now that high pressure near TX LA is feeding dry NE winds into the west side, however since UT is just slowly moving this will allow time for tropical al air to surround the system.As this happens it is also crossing bomb water so yea I could see a 3 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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