STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 2:00 AM, Torch Tiger said: it's possible that 92% of us will never see that happen again. Expand I think many of us will 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 12:45 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Except that 92% of us on this board want a direct hit with damage Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 So close but yet so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/21/2023 at 8:31 PM, WinterWolf said: Goes in spurts…sometimes it gets busy…Irene and then Sandy back to back yrs. Gloria and Bob 6 yrs apart. It’ll Happen again. Expand I think Tip made this point previously... but we have been busy. We just haven't had a landfalling hurricane. Henri, Elsa, Isaias, Fay, Irene and to a lesser extent Sandy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 12:14 PM, Chrisrotary12 said: I think Tip made this point previously... but we have been busy. We just haven't had a landfalling hurricane. Henri, Elsa, Isaias, Fay, Irene and to a lesser extent Sandy. Expand those were weak sauce tropical systems , The 1 cane was a clown named Irene With generously valued winds at 75. So I guess busy with small weak systems but not like we’ve been dodging formidable canes with very close calls 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 12:19 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Half those were weak sauce barely canes Expand Right but that’s just how it goes. The steering pattern has been generally conducive the last decade or so for tropical. Turning to the basin now, still think Atlantic Canada needs to watch Franklin. Euro goes back to the CAG leading to something in the Caribbean/Gulf homebrew region in just a few days. Models have flirted with that idea but nothing has been really solid. I started talking about that CAG potential last Wednesday lol. I may love wx, but I’m obsessed with tropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 12:19 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: those were weak sauce tropical systems , The 1 cane was a clown named Irene With generously valued winds at 75. So I guess busy with small weak systems but not like we’ve been dodging formidable canes with very close calls Expand This is true. These recent misses have hardly been a match to anything from ‘54 or ‘38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 12:28 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Right but that’s just how it goes. The steering pattern has been generally conducive the last decade or so for tropical. Turning to the basin now, still think Atlantic Canada needs to watch Franklin. Euro goes back to the CAG leading to something in the Caribbean/Gulf homebrew region in just a few days. Models have flirted with that idea but nothing has been really solid. I started talking about that CAG potential last Wednesday lol. I may love wx, but I’m obsessed with tropical Expand I can’t remember tracking a solid cane with the potential to be in tact going over SNE since Bob 30 years ago . Eduard in late 2000’s might have been Closest thing I’m looking at changing my flight back from Colorado to early in day Tuesday so I can see the big swell if it materializes , that’s how much or a wave weenie I am or somehow it stalls in SW Atlantic longer . Monday /Tuesday look like big swell days for RI and parts of outer cape and islands SE /S facing Beaches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 12:44 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: I can’t remember tracking a solid cane with the potential to be in tact going over SNE since Bob 30 years ago . Eduard in late 2000’s might have been Closest thing I’m looking at changing my flight back from Colorado to early in day Tuesday so I can see the big swell if it materializes , that’s how much or a wave weenie I am Expand Was that early 2000's? I thought that was earlier...like in the late 90's. I remember though TWC and I think even local news being extremely concerned up this way. I remember TWC having the bulletins that went from top of screen down as opposed to the scroll at the bottom. That's how you knew it was some serious **** 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Raise your hand if you thought Bob would be the last legitimate threat up here and that’s now over thirty years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 12:48 PM, weatherwiz said: Was that early 2000's? I thought that was earlier...like in the late 90's. I remember though TWC and I think even local news being extremely concerned up this way. I remember TWC having the bulletins that went from top of screen down as opposed to the scroll at the bottom. That's how you knew it was some serious **** Expand You are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 We basically had a cat 1 last year south of BOS. And arguably a strong TS with Cat 1 gusts in Oct 2019 in PYM county. Not technically a tropical system, but a hybrid. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 1:03 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: You are right Expand I think there were one or two nights I stayed up the whole night (or at least woke up every few hours) just to see the bulletin across the screen with an update. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 1:04 PM, CoastalWx said: We basically had a cat 1 last year south of BOS. And arguably a strong TS with Cat 1 gusts in Oct 2019 in PYM county. Not technically a tropical system, but a hybrid. Expand October has produced recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 12:48 PM, weatherwiz said: Was that early 2000's? I thought that was earlier...like in the late 90's. I remember though TWC and I think even local news being extremely concerned up this way. I remember TWC having the bulletins that went from top of screen down as opposed to the scroll at the bottom. That's how you knew it was some serious **** Expand Edouard was at the very beginning of September, 1996. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 1:15 PM, WxWatcher007 said: October has produced recently Expand It really has. Don't forget 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 1:17 PM, crownweather said: Edouard was at the very beginning of September, 1996. Expand I was even going to think mid 90's. I remember being super young. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 If you are focused on the results... then yes.... since Bob we've had nothing (except the un-named Cat 1 Scott mentions). But if you focus on the opportunities, as WxWatcher points out... we've had a fairly conducive pattern for a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 1:17 PM, crownweather said: Edouard was at the very beginning of September, 1996. Expand We thought it would invade our church's Labor Day picnic as it moved almost due north for 2-3 days and was aimed right at us in southern Maine. At nearly the last moment it made the sharp right turn and was gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Yeah... farmer John's recollection here ... We've observed a lot in the way of decaying TCs that have lifted along the EC - in fact, that sub-classed traffic seems to have increased? "Gloria" in 1986 was the last MDR long track text book express, but it left something on the table actually because between passing the latitude of Cape May NJ and landfall along L.I. it dropped all the way to Cat 1. Kind of a rapid weakener. "Bob" in '91 was a home grown ... but with it 'hooking' right so much it wasn't a higher population impactor. What I think is interesting is that while it is likely more true than not, we've had more favorable set ups in recent decade(s), we have also seen an increased number/frequency of those sub- Cat 1 type cyclones. It's interesting what/why for this latter increase - as its own story. But otherwise ..we should consider Hugo ... Irene ... Sandy, which 'sort of' did but did not happen to key hole the right parabolic track. I don't even know if Sandy was an MDR ...but for brevity's sake. Hugo missed entirely, but hit the EC nonetheless. Irene was mangled by land too much; got too far west. It was also moving rather slow compared to 'express climo'. If that had been more east of its verification, I'm not sure that slow rate of ascension would have survived the colder shelf waters S of L.i., anyway. At the end of the day, it seems we've seen increased frequency of favorable synoptics, without a big pig. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 2:18 PM, Chrisrotary12 said: If you are focused on the results... then yes.... since Bob we've had nothing (except the un-named Cat 1 Scott mentions). But if you focus on the opportunities, as WxWatcher points out... we've had a fairly conducive pattern for a decade. Expand The rebuild at H5 continues. If you care to donate to the fictional Red Cross, send your account and routing number to raymondspinazola@yahoo.com. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Hugo was actually a heart breaker for cane enthusiasts ( of the 'totally responsible mentality' ilk lol ..). I mean, it was a long ... looooong ass tracker that made the entire distance along a clad climo trajectory for ECer's of lore. Even passing within 60 naut miles N of PR... You know? there's this ISE, which is both cumulative for seasons, and for individual TC life. Integrated Storm Energy. They should one like ISD, integrate storm dildo. ... it's basically proportional to "the length" of time and space the given system justly spends within the realm of reach and hope without reach-around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Spot on. We’ve had our windows and have produced, but the impact has been marginal relative to what we could do. We had a lot of those systems weaken substantially on approach, and even though some have been high impact, we haven’t really seen a big widespread deal. It’ll happen eventually, but a lot has to go right (or wrong) for the perfect storm. Turning to the basin, Harold has ramped up quickly but ran out of runway. Get a real Gulf system this year and it’ll be trouble, again… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 2:49 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Spot on. We’ve had our windows and have produced, but the impact has been marginal relative to what we could do. We had a lot of those systems weaken substantially on approach, and even though some have been high impact, we haven’t really seen a big widespread deal. It’ll happen eventually, but a lot has to go right (or wrong) for the perfect storm. Turning to the basin, Harold has ramped up quickly but ran out of runway. Get a real Gulf system this year and it’ll be trouble, again… Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 LF in the most inhabitable place possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Basically a much needed soaking for them and not too much rain to yield significant flooding concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 3:30 PM, Ginx snewx said: LF in the most inhabitable place possible Expand Same place Brett came in back in 1999....another one in 2017, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 3:39 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Same place Brett came in back in 1999....another one in 2017, too. Expand Should just rename Padre Island Tropical Landfalling Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Edouard was the biggest C-tease ever. Dear God....ugh I have nightmares of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 4:03 PM, CoastalWx said: Edouard was the biggest C-tease ever. Dear God....ugh I have nightmares of that. Expand Belle 1976 was my all time CT. Was expected to LF at 100 plus knots. This is me heading in to surf as Belle was off NJ. Very old Kodak shot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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