40/70 Benchmark Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: If this keeps up it's going to be a volatile winter without a doubt. I'm not ready to write off winter just because we may be headed towards strong Nino. Sure the odds aren't great when dealing with a stronger event, but there have been strong Ninos to produce and it's important to understand the mechanisms for that. Even the ones that sucked usually produced at least one or two large ones....the only season that didn't was 1972-1973. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Even the ones that sucked usually produced at least one or two large ones....the only season that didn't was 1972-1973. Just pray we can avoid a pattern favoring cutters...if we can avoid that it could be a wild one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Let’s get some favorable conditions for something to grow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 I gotta say .. the Global Forecast System ( and I spell it out because it's not really the GFS operational model I'm mentioning here, per se - ) first picked up on the favorable, albeit anomalously early, MDR activity a month ago ... well over a week in advance. It did so again over the last 10 days to two weeks, and now we have Don - which isn't really MDR, but there's also a Verdi Invest mid way. I just think that's worthy of a shout out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 6z GFS. Takes the leftovers of what's left of whatever forms behind 95 after hitting Florida ... EPS likes it to 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 3 hours ago, ineedsnow said: 6z GFS. Takes the leftovers of what's left of whatever forms behind 95 after hitting Florida ... EPS likes it to I'm tracking it 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 Aside from whatever the operational models show with discrete waves, the environment in the Atlantic will likely become more favorable in the next 7-10 days—that’s why there’s a fairly robust ensemble signal for that period. Also worth watching off the SE coast next week as a boundary could be a focal point for something brief. 95L was a little early, and kind of a sacrificial wave as it has been enveloped by the drier environment and unable to shake itself from the monsoon trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 Warms my weenie to see some red meat thrown out by the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 We take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 It’s fantasy of course, but I think the broader signal for tropical activity is real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 https://events.ecmwf.int/event/353/ https://www.researchgate.net/publication/369438843_Convectively_Coupled_Kelvin_Waves_and_Tropical_Cyclogenesis_Connections_through_Convection_and_Moisture Really should have a CCKW weekly graphic that shows if CCKW position conductive to a favorable (Rising air ) , neutral or restrictive (sinking air) Outlook (over parts of Atlantic ..as these can *often be accurately modeled a couple weeks out * when they are distinct And they offer confirmed statistical analysis that increases the medium term Probability forecasting TC development and activity . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 I won’t be interested in the tropics until Bastardi makes his 5th mention of a “1938 analog” 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: It's coming 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 On 7/24/2023 at 9:35 AM, MJO812 said: It's coming Even if that verified, I would sleep right through it. It would be a ton of hype for what would end up relatively mundane sensible weather appeal. The main impact would be flood watches due to antecedent rainfall, but at the end of the day, it would just be more of what we have already experienced this summer for the vast majority. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Even if that verified, I would sleep right through it. It would be a ton of hype for what would end up relatively mundane sensible weather appeal. The main impact would be flood watches due to antecedent rainfall, but at the end of the day, it would just be more of what we have already experienced this summer for the vast majority. Might be a little more exciting for Nova Scotia but yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 24 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Might be a little more exciting for Nova Scotia but yeah. Whoop-de-doo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 There is both a narrow corridor for it to track and a narrow set of circumstances in general for a major impact from a tropical cyclone in this area....just one of them is missed, and its a forgettable day of breezy showers. In this day of social media, I get so tired of people whacking it to charts that belie what is a pretty high return rate event climatologically speaking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Ray returns with soul crushing realism for tropical weenies Looking forward to hitting the road this season. Still skeptical of the more aggressive seasonal forecasts despite outrageous SST anomalies and depth in the basin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Ray returns with soul crushing realism for tropical weenies Looking forward to hitting the road this season. Still skeptical of the more aggressive seasonal forecasts despite outrageous SST anomalies and depth in the basin. I'm a tropical weenie myself, but why set yourself up for disappointment... When there is a bonafide threat, I'll frequent this thread as much as anyone...save for maybe Scott....who is probably here more often than google. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Gfs closer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 12z and 18Z GFS are similar theres a first 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Ray returns with soul crushing realism for tropical weenies Looking forward to hitting the road this season. Still skeptical of the more aggressive seasonal forecasts despite outrageous SST anomalies and depth in the basin. I heard today that a water temperature of 101* was recorded off the coast of Florida. Is there any validity to this as it seems really high? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 59 minutes ago, Roger said: I heard today that a water temperature of 101* was recorded off the coast of Florida. Is there any validity to this as it seems really high? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 12 hours ago, Roger said: I heard today that a water temperature of 101* was recorded off the coast of Florida. Is there any validity to this as it seems really high? Regarding the validity of Monday's amazing 101.1F on Manatee Bay: "That could be a new world record, besting an unofficial 99.7 degree temperature once reported in Kuwait. But meteorologists say the Florida gauge's location in dark water near land could make that difficult to determine. What to know about that hot sea surface temperature Was Monday’s 101.1 degree temperature in Manatee Bay a valid record measurement? That depends on the surrounding circumstances, said Jeff Masters, a meteorologist for Yale Climate Connections. The reading would need to be verified, and no one keeps official sea surface temperature records, Masters said. The Manatee Bay gauge is very close to land, south of Biscayne Bay, and measures the water temperature at a depth of 5 feet. Since the Manatee Bay buoy is near land, the water temperature could have been heated up by floating plants and other debris, he said. Without photos documenting clear water there Monday, 'it will be difficult to verify the 101.1 degree record as valid.' Given the gauge's location near land and the Kuwait measurement in open water, Masters said the two really shouldn't be compared." https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/07/25/water-temperatures-in-florida/70463489007/ Over the last couple of days, the SST has moved over 3F within just one hour several times, which obviously isn't normal. Between 5 and 6AM yesterday (before sunrise), it rose nearly 3F from 91.6 to 94.5! How can that be and it be a station for valid SSTs? The sun doesn't even rise til 6:45AM! Perhaps this was related to an incoming low tide? Low tide was at ~8:30AM. Also, note the 10+ degree range within the same day on the days surrounding the 101.1 due to very shallow water! There's nothing normal about this station as regards tracking SSTs. And now I just read above that they had 102 in 2017. Note that the highest yesterday was "only" in the middle 90s thanks to increased shower activity. Edit: The rain down there this morning is the most widespread I can recall in weeks. This has helped bring the Manatee Bay SST down to 86.9F at 10AM vs 94.5F at 10AM yesterday: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Any Atlantic activity seems to be vanishing for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Any Atlantic activity seems to be vanishing for next week that's good, no need for a powerful cane to disrupt SST's only to recurve 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 This guy is very active with regard to tropical posts , he believes if models are accurately depicting the El Niño upper level winds becoming established by September ..he thinks an avenge season will be a struggle to attain , as well as the CCKW’s favorable region sort of slowing over the East pacific in August (where action will be focused ) I am feeling that if these pieces stay in place over next couple weeks guidance , it will be a slow year (and ya ya we know it only takes 1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 ill take the 937mb storm coming up the coast on the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 Zzzzzzz. Not sure why people went so active in a nino. There’s more to it than SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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