raindancewx Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 I agree that January will be warm. But I think it's best to focus on the years in your list that had a huge disparity in Dec temps for Russia v. Canada as the roll forward criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 Natural Gas rose... now it's fallen back to 2.38. I've found under 2.5 correlates with basically negative 500mb anomaly 60N-90N.. +NAO/+AO/+EPO.. but it's only a -40-50dm signal (+1-2 months from happening) https://ibb.co/JpSn9Mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 March Natural Gas = cheap. https://ibb.co/3Wg2GwQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: March Natural Gas = cheap. https://ibb.co/3Wg2GwQ Yep, just got a hot tip from my broker, Bastardi says BUY BUY BUY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 2 takes. Natural Gas record low: https://ibb.co/2vrfcHK ENSO subsurface changes: https://ibb.co/ZgvkXCY ON NATURAL GAS: Since 1998, top 7 +Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 8.3, bottom 4 Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 2.2. We are at 1.97, the 3rd lowest on record in that time, fitting the extreme situation guideline. Here are the top 11 +analogs for March.. based on Feb's NG price: https://ibb.co/6wKqgDf https://ibb.co/Hp0zZqW ^that's Feb high/low NG price rolled forward into March (so a +1 month lead time). I don't know that March's warmth will be that extreme, because a lot of LR models (GEFS, EPS, Euro) are showing below average temps through the 21st, but we probably will finish the month above normal in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 100dm is an amazing signal for something not even really related! Furthermore, my analog set is 1998-2023. I have 11 analogs out of the dataset.. so 11/25 years.. 41% of the total. To have a +7F average anomaly (+ and - .. more - years, for the global warming skew.. 7/11 are cold analogs) for 40% of a dataset in 25 years is amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 23 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 2 takes. Natural Gas record low: https://ibb.co/2vrfcHK ENSO subsurface changes: https://ibb.co/ZgvkXCY ON NATURAL GAS: Since 1998, top 7 +Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 8.3, bottom 4 Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 2.2. We are at 1.97, the 3rd lowest on record in that time, fitting the extreme situation guideline. Here are the top 11 +analogs for March.. based on Feb's NG price: https://ibb.co/6wKqgDf https://ibb.co/Hp0zZqW ^that's Feb high/low NG price rolled forward into March (so a +1 month lead time). I don't know that March's warmth will be that extreme, because a lot of LR models (GEFS, EPS, Euro) are showing below average temps through the 21st, but we probably will finish the month above normal in the NE. This is what I have for March: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 Looks good.. the Euro weeklies have had a very favorable high latitude pattern for US cold for several runs/a long time now.. Interesting to see things so far apart for March. Late February Stratosphere warming favors some -NAO conditions in March, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 Since it's slow, I'll say again that NG is 1.86, the over/under on March temps in the NE/GL's with this is +5-7F. My guess is because models want to develop a -NAO/AO from the February Stratosphere warming, there may be -PNA/+EPO in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Natural Gas is still just absolutely tanking.. got as low as 1.59 today. Believe it or not, going 1 year ahead (for Winter 2024-25) doesn't have a very high correlation: Long term graph since 1995, https://ibb.co/4td0sCG Lowest years the Winter before (2012, 2016, 2020) for the following winter: https://ibb.co/Kzxhtc8 Minus the highest years (-2008, -2022): https://ibb.co/kGxqBD3 There is even a -AO tendency with 3 cold waves around it, in these 5 analogs, and +pna signal, and that's colder, so not a real strong indicator going 1 year out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 3 Author Share Posted March 3 Here's your -AO look: I thought a Strong El Nino/Strong -QBO combo would do that.. we had a few Stratosphere warmings. The Pacific Ocean pattern kept North America warmer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Here's your -AO look: I thought a Strong El Nino/Strong -QBO combo would do that.. we had a few Stratosphere warmings. The Pacific Ocean pattern kept North America warmer.. near total lack of cold air except siberia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 24 Author Share Posted April 24 @40/70 Benchmark The CPC came with +0.75 NAO for DJFM March, which was outside of my +0.54 SD range for NAO forecast, based on May-September N. Atlantic SSTs. But if you look at the actual maps, the SLP between Iceland and Azores (where the NAO is calculated) is a slightly negative or neutral NAO index reading for the Winter, which fits my forecast, which was near 0.0 in prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 Every month next winter is likelier than not to be above normal across mid latitude N/A - it's a matter of how much or little. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 24 Author Share Posted April 24 Yeah, Natural Gas is really low right now, which means that the average NG trader is going for a warmer Winter at this point for the Great Lakes, NE-US, Europe, and Russia. (Down 10% today!) Especially compared to Oil and Gasoline.. I did find that the correlation isn't very big until you pass the Summer-hot season. Maybe they think it will be a cooler Summer? I doubt it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 On 4/23/2024 at 9:19 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: @40/70 Benchmark The CPC came with +0.75 NAO for DJFM March, which was outside of my +0.54 SD range for NAO forecast, based on May-September N. Atlantic SSTs. But if you look at the actual maps, the SLP between Iceland and Azores (where the NAO is calculated) is a slightly negative or neutral NAO index reading for the Winter, which fits my forecast, which was near 0.0 in prediction. Cool...yea, you do a good job with that. I am going to delve into the post season analysis probably next week...I think my snowfall forecast was decent outside of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/05/winter-2023-2024-outlook-largely-failure.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/05/winter-2023-2024-outlook-largely-failure.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 13 Author Share Posted May 13 Nice job Ray.. I don't agree that the PNA was +0.55 for the Winter.. there was an Aleutian High most of the time, and +EPO/+WPO. I think their measurement runs into the EPO domain, counting Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska.. I see it as a -PNA Winter, especially since the North America part included a SE ridge and NW trough. The one time the EC got cold in January was because of -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 15 Author Share Posted May 15 On 5/12/2024 at 10:48 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: [images] Do you know how much snow Boston has received vs average 2017-18 to 2023-24? If it's less than 50% that's a huge bad omen for areas south on the east coast going forward through the next few years and maybe decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 On 5/13/2024 at 12:15 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Nice job Ray.. I don't agree that the PNA was +0.55 for the Winter.. there was an Aleutian High most of the time, and +EPO/+WPO. I think their measurement runs into the EPO domain, counting Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska.. I see it as a -PNA Winter, especially since the North America part included a SE ridge and NW trough. The one time the EC got cold in January was because of -NAO. Yea, well the calculation is what it is. I did note the westward displacement of the PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Do you know how much snow Boston has received vs average 2017-18 to 2023-24? If it's less than 50% that's a huge bad omen for areas south on the east coast going forward through the next few years and maybe decades. I don't think it's that low....2017-2018 was very good and 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 were okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 15 Author Share Posted May 15 Their measurement does intersect the two (PNA and EPO) Here is PNA H5 https://ibb.co/L1HKSSJ US Air Temps https://ibb.co/KFnBqTh EPO H5 https://ibb.co/q1hjXGx US Air Temps https://ibb.co/FqRBgF5 As you can see, the EPO does have a pretty strong opposite-correlation in the N. Pacific (what I am calling the PNA region). That is why the CPC PNA has only a weak correlation with air temps over the NE, but EPO has a strong correlation. It's not that Alaska is super important (although it is), but the PNA south of where they measure is the sweet spot for correlated temperature impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Their measurement does intersect the two (PNA and EPO) Here is PNA H5 https://ibb.co/L1HKSSJ US Air Temps https://ibb.co/KFnBqTh EPO H5 https://ibb.co/q1hjXGx US Air Temps https://ibb.co/FqRBgF5 As you can see, the EPO does have a pretty strong opposite-correlation in the N. Pacific (what I am calling the PNA region). That is why the CPC PNA has only a weak correlation with air temps over the NE, but EPO has a strong correlation. It's not that Alaska is super important (although it is), but the PNA south of where they measure is the sweet spot for correlated temperature impact. Yea, no argument there. Like I said, the indexes do not necessirly encompass the ideal domain space to maximixe the correlation to our weather, but I just forecast and report the calculated numbers in addition to the actual sensible weather and H5 pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 17 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Do you know how much snow Boston has received vs average 2017-18 to 2023-24? If it's less than 50% that's a huge bad omen for areas south on the east coast going forward through the next few years and maybe decades. I think it may be luck turning around for BOS. This year I did better than them on LI (15.5” here, not saying much), last year I had about the same, 21-22 BOS had more largely because of the late Jan storm that was 24” 20 miles east of me and 14” IMBY, 20-21 I did better because of the early Feb big run we had. 2017-18 through 19-20 BOS probably did better but 17-18 was also good/great here so it might’ve been about even. The Jan storms in 2022 and 2018 slammed as far south as the Delmarva so it’s really about the crap pattern favoring the West/Plains/NNE we’ve all been stuck in. When the boiling W PAC cools down so the rampaging PAC jet can take a break, it should turn back around. After the general 2000-2018 bonanza period we were due for a stretch of garbage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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