Winter 2023-2024

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

4 degrees CELSIUS colder than climo over a 3 month average imby?

No way that's gonna happen. (and I'm one of those who is cautiously optimistic about 23-24)

[ldub23]

26 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

4 degrees CELSIUS colder than climo over a 3 month average imby?

No way that's gonna happen. (and I'm one of those who is cautiously optimistic about 23-24)

It was  lower that that  in 76/77 and 77/78

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

It was  lower that that  in 76/77 and 77/78

And typewriters were common place...about as good a chance of seeing those this winter.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

4 degrees CELSIUS colder than climo over a 3 month average imby?

No way that's gonna happen. (and I'm one of those who is cautiously optimistic about 23-24)

He/she knows it won’t happen. Besides, this is just one of the daily runs of the awful CFS that happens to be cold (though I wonder if it really is as cold as this WxBell map shows) and it is looking out 3-6 months. Individual runs as one would expect jump around so much from run to run and have hardly any value. In contrast, here is the much more believable mean of the last 12 CFS runs (from TT), which shows much of the E US 2-4F warmer than the 1984-2009 baseline vs the totally unbelievable 5-9F colder than the 1981-2010 baseline map from today’s 0Z run:

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

He/she knows it won’t happen. Besides, this is just one of the daily runs of the awful CFS that happens to be cold (though I wonder if it really is as cold as this WxBell map shows) and it is looking out 3-6 months. Individual runs as one would expect jump around so much from run to run and have hardly any value. In contrast, here is the much more believable mean of the last 12 CFS runs (from TT), which shows much of the E US 2-4F warmer than the 1984-2008 baseline vs the totally unbelievable 5-9F colder than the 1981-2010 baseline map from today’s 0Z run:

1 degree C above is pretty beliebable around here.

Take.

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1 degree C above is pretty beliebable around here.

Take.

I’d take the 1C AN that it is showing down here, especially with it vs 1984-2009 climo instead of the warmer 1991-2020 climo, though the weenie in me is hoping for NN to 1C BN since El Niño is the best shot at a BN SE.

[Typhoon Tip]

On 9/26/2023 at 11:17 AM, Terpeast said:

4 degrees CELSIUS colder than climo over a 3 month average imby?

No way that's gonna happen. (and I'm one of those who is cautiously optimistic about 23-24)

Placing a dramatic micro node of negative over the southern tier of Lake Michigan might be a nod toward suspicion there

[raindancewx]

I have all the main ideas / justifications for my forecast in my head but I haven't finished writing them out yet. For now, here is Accuweather's outlook. It's pretty similar to what I'm expecting, although I'm a bit more bullish on snow in some areas. I'm also warmer than this in the Southeast/Southwest and a little colder in the Northwest. I don't really expect any part of the US to be more than 1F below average. I'm basically on board with the El Nino turning into a Modoki - but I think its too late for winter. Likely a Feb (earliest) to Apr thing. But since the event should weaken east to west, the early (likely terrible) guess is we get a major east-based La Nina next year, which will be a horrible winter for the West, and probably pretty cold and snowy in the East, following something like 250-350 Atlantic Ace and hurricanes into November. 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/us-winter-forecast-for-the-2023-2024-season/1583853

[raindancewx]

One thing I'm toying with for my outlook is the relative influence of the PDO and ENSO on US temps. I'm going to put these here so we can see which wins out monthly.

The PDO isn't important in Dec/Mar for eastern temps regardless of the phase. But it is fairly important in the other months. For October, the -PDO signature (strong for warmth Plains) is winning out, even as the pattern has flipped. El Nino favors the opposite (cold East of the Continental Divide) but only weakly.

Nino 4 over 29/29.5C is just about as reliable as a warm signal as possible for the East in December.

Here is ENSO -

[raindancewx]

The precipitation pattern on the Canadian for the winter has been bugging me for a while. It does resemble 1951-52, 2004-05, 2006-07 though. 

Greatest concentration of wetness is West of 180W here at the equator, with precip from Australia into the Indian Ocean as the greatest dryness concentration.  That's what the Canadian shows too.

It's a psuedo MJO 6-7 look, mostly 6 (very wet west of 180W, dry by Indonesia into the Indian Ocean, a streak of rainfall into the Pacific at 120W), which matches what you get from 1951-52, 2004-05, 2006-07. I don't think 1951, 2004, 2006 is the right look per-se, but this is kind of how I sanity check stuff.

[stadiumwave]

 UKMET Updated: 

DJF, 500mb

 

JFM, 500mb

 

DJF, ENSO:

[Daniel Boone]

On 10/9/2023 at 12:51 AM, raindancewx said:

The precipitation pattern on the Canadian for the winter has been bugging me for a while. It does resemble 1951-52, 2004-05, 2006-07 though. 

Greatest concentration of wetness is West of 180W here at the equator, with precip from Australia into the Indian Ocean as the greatest dryness concentration.  That's what the Canadian shows too.

It's a psuedo MJO 6-7 look, mostly 6 (very wet west of 180W, dry by Indonesia into the Indian Ocean, a streak of rainfall into the Pacific at 120W), which matches what you get from 1951-52, 2004-05, 2006-07. I don't think 1951, 2004, 2006 is the right look per-se, but this is kind of how I sanity check stuff.

In my reply to your Outlook, I mentioned your Outlook looks similar to 72-73 and 82-83 . The Snowfall outlook looks more like 72-73 in the East. I gave my thoughts there. No need to rehash. UKMET latest outlook looks about what I'm thinking. Normal to above Snowfall should encompass a broader area in the East than your map indicates imo. at least up to the lower MA or MD Line. MJO looks favorable much of the time for theses areas. 

[ldub23]

 

[ldub23]

JB updates

 

https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-seasonal-forecast

[brooklynwx99]

52 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

JB updates

 

https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-seasonal-forecast

i know people will jump on this because it's JB, but this is all pretty reasonable honestly

[ldub23]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

i know people will jump on this because it's JB, but this is all pretty reasonable honestly

Yea, not extreme by any means

[Itryatgolf70]

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i know people will jump on this because it's JB, but this is all pretty reasonable honestly

JB has to hype to get clients and since he has been doing this along time, people will put stock in him, regardless right or wrong. Kinda like brand loyal lol. That's how he makes money. He definitely very smart with weather. He probably has actually gotten fooled with winters with things unexpectedly changed mid-winter, which can happen. 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i know people will jump on this because it's JB, but this is all pretty reasonable honestly

Reasonable, and lines up with my outlook (which has the cold leaning a bit more SW)

My only nitpick is him using the 1991-2020 climo on 1960-1990 winters. I would have used 1951-2010, but that’s just me. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

@Stormchaserchuck1Do you have the SST plot that goes with your forumula?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Stormchaserchuck1Do you have the SST plot that goes with your forumula?

In 2005, I made timeseries of all indexes, and found a strong correlation with N. Atlantic SSTs May-Sept, as a lead predictor to the following Winter's NAO. 

I don't have the custom index anymore, but you can somewhat see it here:

https://ibb.co/M9W0Q63

In the next 17 years, I tested it real time, and found it 13-4 in getting the raw NAO state correct, and in the beginning I estimated a 0.54 SD ("0" is 50% chance of -0.54 to +0.54), and that verifies 9-8, since 2005.  

Here is this the boxes I calculate, although the most accurate way goes from May-Sept (not May-Aug): 

https://ibb.co/Y8bTrWL

This years SST index comes out at -0.05, so a 50% chance of the DJFM NAO being -0.59 to +0.49 [CPC].

So my supposingly successful method is predicting a "Neutral NAO" for Winter 23-24. 

Here is this year's raw map and plot:

https://ibb.co/ZmQyz8k

https://ibb.co/Hx1Mjcs

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 11/10/2023 at 8:34 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In 2005, I made timeseries of all indexes, and found a strong correlation with N. Atlantic SSTs May-Sept, as a lead predictor to the following Winter's NAO. 

I don't have the custom index anymore, but you can somewhat see it here:

https://ibb.co/M9W0Q63

In the next 17 years, I tested it real time, and found it 13-4 in getting the raw NAO state correct, and in the beginning I estimated a 0.54 SD ("0" is 50% chance of -0.54 to +0.54), and that verifies 9-8, since 2005.  

Here is this the boxes I calculate, although the most accurate way goes from May-Sept (not May-Aug): 

https://ibb.co/Y8bTrWL

This years SST index comes out at -0.05, so a 50% chance of the DJFM NAO being -0.59 to +0.49 [CPC].

So my supposingly successful method is predicting a "Neutral NAO" for Winter 23-24. 

Here is this year's raw map and plot:

https://ibb.co/ZmQyz8k

https://ibb.co/Hx1Mjcs

Thanks...going to include it this year, as it is part of a very strong consensus.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Natural Gas dropping from 3.6 to 2.9 lately.. Under 3.0 implies a +NAO Winter. 

[WinterFire]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Natural Gas dropping from 3.6 to 2.9 lately.. Under 3.0 implies a +NAO Winter. 

No, it implies that natural gas day traders think there will be a +NAO this winter. Commodities trading has absolutely no bearing on how our atmosphere works, on a seasonal scale. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Well, yeah.. but it's a variable.  No one realizes how big of a bust last Winter was because it was a La Nina. 

[griteater]

My thoughts on the upcoming weather pattern (Dec15-Jan5) and whether it offers potential for winter weather in the Southeast and Southern Mid-Atlantic

[donsutherland1]

FYI: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/polar-vortex

[griteater]

30 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

FYI: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/polar-vortex

Good to see you in these threads Don.  Yeah, I saw that about the NOAA PV Blog.  I thought Judah Cohen's PV blog was a good one this week (https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/).  He mentioned that Canadian Warmings are often followed by PV stretching and cold outbreaks (even though at the time, the models weren't showing the PV stretching)...but sure enough, the models have come around to that a bit in the strat, just not showing much AK ridging in the trop...but that could change in time (I think it will).

This is an Op run (GFS), but it shows the potential strat progression which could aid a cold outbreak

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, griteater said:

Good to see you in these threads Don.  Yeah, I saw that about the NOAA PV Blog.  I thought Judah Cohen's PV blog was a good one this week (https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/).  He mentioned that Canadian Warmings are often followed by PV stretching and cold outbreaks (even though at the time, the models weren't showing the PV stretching)...but sure enough, the models have come around to that a bit in the strat, just not showing much AK ridging in the trop...but that could change in time (I think it will).

This is an Op run (GFS), but it shows the potential strat progression which could aid a cold outbreak

Thank you, Griteater. It's encouraging to see developments that suggest that this winter will not be anything close to a repeat of the "non-winter" of 2022-23. I look forward to being able to read Cohen's blog and the upcoming NOAA blog.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

December low Natural Gas price for the following February, 20 years data since 1997. 

https://ibb.co/QjxPLwW

2.78, top 10 lowest analogs averaged about 2.5, top 10 highest analogs averaged about 6.0.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/4/2023 at 9:24 PM, raindancewx said:

I have all the main ideas / justifications for my forecast in my head but I haven't finished writing them out yet. For now, here is Accuweather's outlook. It's pretty similar to what I'm expecting, although I'm a bit more bullish on snow in some areas. I'm also warmer than this in the Southeast/Southwest and a little colder in the Northwest. I don't really expect any part of the US to be more than 1F below average. I'm basically on board with the El Nino turning into a Modoki - but I think its too late for winter. Likely a Feb (earliest) to Apr thing. But since the event should weaken east to west, the early (likely terrible) guess is we get a major east-based La Nina next year, which will be a horrible winter for the West, and probably pretty cold and snowy in the East, following something like 250-350 Atlantic Ace and hurricanes into November. 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/us-winter-forecast-for-the-2023-2024-season/1583853

I must have missed this post...interesting take. I have initial reservations about next winter due to the fact that solar should be descending by then, but maybe we stave that off another year. Plenty of time to ponder that.