Winter 2023-2024

[donsutherland1]

On 8/22/2023 at 4:46 PM, GaWx said:

@donsutherland1 Do you happen to have any feel yet for where you expect the very crucial NAO to be this DJF? I'm asking you because I recently had looked at several 2019-20 winter forecast threads and you were the only one I saw who explicitly called for a +NAO, which we know verified quite well:

 

Strongest +NAO DJF since 1950:

2014-5: +1.66

2011-2: +1.37

1994-5: +1.36

2015-6: +1.31

1999-0: +1.30

2017-18: +1.30

2019-0: +1.27

1988-9: +1.26

1993-4: +1.02

2021-2: +1.02

-all 10 since 1988-9

-6 of the 10 since 2011-2

 

-NAO (sub -0.25) DJF since 1950-1:

- 22 of them (30% of winters since 1950-1)

- 16 of these 22 were between 1954-5 and 1978-9 (~50% of winters during that period)

- Only 4 of the 22 sub -0.25 winters were after 1986-7 (11% of winters since 1987-8): 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-1, and 2020-1

- So, only 1 of the last 12 winters (8%) sub -0.25

- Why has there been such a strong tendency away from -NAO winters since 1987-8? Could it be the +AMO? GW?

- Is anyone yet predicting a sub -0.25 NAO for the upcoming DJF? If so, based on what?

Not yet. It's going to be more complicated this year if the north Atlantic remains as warm as it is. It could distort the pattern evolution. I don't think it will be a general wall-to-wall NAO+/AO+ winter, though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Not yet. It's going to be more complicated this year if the north Atlantic remains as warm as it is. It could distort the pattern evolution. I don't think it will be a general wall-to-wall NAO+/AO+ winter, though.

Agree.

[snowman19]

All he does is post random Twitter threads of nobodies to justify his obvious warm bias. 
It's no different than what JB does

You are the worst, most clueless, worthless, useless member (troll) on this forum. Ignorant as the day is long and not very smart to boot. Nothing but non stop idiocy from you. Go crawl back under your rock

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You are the worst, most clueless, worthless, useless member (troll) on this forum. Ignorant as the day is long and not very smart to boot. Nothing but non stop idiocy from you. Go crawl back under your rock

You forgot "vapid"!!

[George001]

Damn, people get really passionate about enso. I get being excited about the developing El Niño, but there’s no need to be at each others throats over a difference of opinion ya know? Strong and super are both still on the table. Weak is not, and I would take a moderate peak off the table as well now. The nino is already in high end moderate territory but there is still some unknown to how strong it will get at the peak. I would say the range of outcomes is +1.8 at the low end to +2.6 at the high end (I’m leaning towards us meeting in the middle at +2.2, a solid super peak). It is weather after all, and the one thing I learned from my years of tracking is I don’t know shit. That’s part of the fun of tracking, it’s so unpredictable. 

[Eskimo Joe]

On 8/25/2023 at 11:29 AM, George001 said:

Damn, people get really passionate about enso. I get being excited about the developing El Niño, but there’s no need to be at each others throats over a difference of opinion ya know? Strong and super are both still on the table. Weak is not, and I would take a moderate peak off the table as well now. The nino is already in high end moderate territory but there is still some unknown to how strong it will get at the peak. I would say the range of outcomes is +1.8 at the low end to +2.6 at the high end (I’m leaning towards us meeting in the middle at +2.2, a solid super peak). It is weather after all, and the one thing I learned from my years of tracking is I don’t know shit. That’s part of the fun of tracking, it’s so unpredictable. 

Folks south of 40N have had almost wall to wall brown ground since 2016. Seven years of nada will make people go crazy.

[SnoSki14]

On 8/25/2023 at 9:53 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You forgot "vapid"!!

Did I hit a nerve?

[SnoSki14]

On 8/25/2023 at 5:41 AM, snowman19 said:

You are the worst, most clueless, worthless, useless member (troll) on this forum. Ignorant as the day is long and not very smart to boot. Nothing but non stop idiocy from you. Go crawl back under your rock

Lol

I'm sorry you had to use one of your 5 daily posts to respond 

[raindancewx]

Locally, we've never had a July-June with under 4 inches of rain back to 1892. But July-September is our wet season (~4")...and it looks very dry (0.7" now).

So either we're going to snap to at least normal precipitation over the next 8 months (since September looks dry), or we're going break our record for dryness in a year.

My guess is we snap back hard to wetness. To get to actual normal totals for a year - 8.67" for the past 100 years - we'd need basically 2x normal rain/snow for Oct-May when we average ~0.5" liquid equivalent per month.

The mechanics of that snap back are interesting to think about, especially since this El Nino looks like it will be ~ongoing decline until it collapses as early as late Oct-late Dec.

Outside of the SW, I would say the NE US tends to snap back to dryness after very wet Summers.

Look at the wettest Summers in Boston - the El Nino blend is 1976, 1982, 1986, 2006, 2009, 2019.

1	1955	24.89	0
2	2023	20.33	0
3	1959	19.68	0
4	2021	19.64	0
-	1982	19.64	0
6	1938	19.07	0
7	1998	17.42	0
8	2006	16.87	0
9	1931	16.03	0
10	2013	15.95	0
11	1986	15.02	0
12	1946	14.90	0
13	2011	14.54	0
14	2019	14.44	0
15	1985	14.12	0
16	2000	14.03	0
17	2008	13.93	0
18	1989	13.85	0
19	2009	13.36	0
20	1976	12.87	0

[raindancewx]

Here is 1982 warmed up 1F v. 2023 for Summer -

The pattern I've noticed in looking at three month periods is we follow 1982 pretty well for the placement of subtropical highs and heat to the south, but not so much the placement of the cold air. I'm building my analogs around the idea that the stronger El Ninos are probably a better match for TX/MX and the SW US, an OK match for areas just north/east of that zone, and not a good match for most of the Northern US. Actually think Northern Mexico may have a really cold winter, while no one in the US is materially below average. -PDO is a pretty strong late winter warm signal for the East, but a cold signal for the MX/ US West. El Nino is a strong cold signal SW US / MX in December, and January would be a blend.

Last year I liked 2012/1984 as the primary temperature blend idea for winter, with the other years mostly in there for precipitation and timing fixes. This year I like 1951/1982 as a blend, with 1972/2009 likely to show up as the El Nino weakens in late Winter or Spring, and 1997/1991 in there for early winter. I do think 1972, 1982, 1997, 2009 are the better analogs for precipitation. See for yourself -

Feb - Apr 

March-May

[Stormchaserchuck1]

That's a good match, raindancewx. There hasn't been a lot of 500mb flux this summer so local temps and precip hold a little more relative weight. 

[thunderbolt]

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

That looks like a -NAO being predicted by this Euro run for DJF averaged out based on a just over 1 mb AN SLP at Iceland and a just over 1 mb BN SLP in the Azores. Do you or does anyone else have the 2M temp for DJF? Or can someone provide me a link please?

[mitchnick]

QBO for September is -9.88.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

QBO for September is -9.88.

Heading for a deeply negative QBO Winter. 

[mitchnick]

September's updated JMA seasonal forecast, despite a slightly warmer ENSO, has come in cooler in the Southeast & Mid-Atlantic than the August forecast. Also, AN precip has expanded further north up the east coast. August forecast is on top and September's below August's. 

 

[griteater]

^ JMA and JAMSTEC are banging on the precip/uplift being west of the Dateline, a 2014-2015 look, but likely with stronger uplift this go around (stronger Nino)

[GaWx]

9 hours ago, mitchnick said:

September's updated JMA seasonal forecast, despite a slightly warmer ENSO, has come in cooler in the Southeast & Mid-Atlantic than the August forecast. Also, AN precip has expanded further north up the east coast. August forecast is on top and September's below August's. 

 

 As your map shows, the slightly BN SE US DJF is the only BN for any land area in the entire world! That's encouraging but also alarming since it reflects on the warming globe. Do you or does anyone else know what baseline this JMA map uses for normal?

Edit: I found it at the JAMSTEC site: 1991-2020.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/12/2023 at 5:31 AM, mitchnick said:

September's updated JMA seasonal forecast, despite a slightly warmer ENSO, has come in cooler in the Southeast & Mid-Atlantic than the August forecast. Also, AN precip has expanded further north up the east coast. August forecast is on top and September's below August's. 

 

That is a cold look with that monster ridge over AK....I wouldn't be suprised to see it verify colder if that worked out.

[Eskimo Joe]

On 9/12/2023 at 5:31 AM, mitchnick said:

September's updated JMA seasonal forecast, despite a slightly warmer ENSO, has come in cooler in the Southeast & Mid-Atlantic than the August forecast. Also, AN precip has expanded further north up the east coast. August forecast is on top and September's below August's. 

 

None of those images loaded for me.

[Terpeast]

47 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

None of those images loaded for me.

Same

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[mitchnick]

On 9/20/2023 at 8:13 AM, Eskimo Joe said:

None of those images loaded for me.

 

On 9/20/2023 at 9:00 AM, Terpeast said:

Same

Sorry. I  was cleaning out my attachments and deleted a few too many recent ones.

Anyway, here's the link. You can get more info than what I  originally posted.

https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

[MJO812]

9 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

Things are looking promising 

[Eskimo Joe]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Things are looking promising 

If things looks like this come Veterans Day then I'll be more optimistic. We still have about 2 months.

[MJO812]

35 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If things looks like this come Veterans Day then I'll be more optimistic. We still have about 2 months.

Of course

Too far out right now 

[SnoSki14]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Things are looking promising 

We're seeing Nina like conditions to start October...not exactly promising. 

But who knows maybe we'll luck out and get a Nina December followed by a Nino Jan/Feb. 

Many competing factors so an outcome like that wouldn't be surprising. 

[Terpeast]

29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We're seeing Nina like conditions to start October...not exactly promising. 

But who knows maybe we'll luck out and get a Nina December followed by a Nino Jan/Feb. 

Many competing factors so an outcome like that wouldn't be surprising. 

I’m not worried yet. The monthlies were not showing an el nino pattern until dec/jan.

On a weekly basis there will be some switching back and forth now until then. 

If it makes you feel better, gfs and canadian ensembles start showing an aluetian low at the end of their runs (starting around oct 10th)

[Typhoon Tip]

On 9/24/2023 at 2:04 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

Unless there’s an unscheduled reversal … it’s happened twice over the last 10 years ( having never before been observed, fwiw).  I think they both happened proximal to warm ENSOs 

[ldub23]