Winter 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, George001 said:

Im sure we will have a decent stretch in there, but im expecting it to be more 2015-2016, 2018-2019, etc than 2002-2003. 

Well, 2015-2016 had us merely brushed by one of the largest east coast snow events in history and some SNE areas still finished near normal snowfall.

2018-2019 was a meager el nino that never coupled and left us in residual la nina hang-over. If this el nino is nearly as potent as you believe, then that won't happen.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I would argue that "bad El Nino's" were not actually an El Nino pattern.. 

Some, sure.

[George001]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't imply that this fatailstic thought process was "wrong", but rather dysfunctional. The fact is that healthy el nino events leave us prone to high-magnitude snow events.....if you average 40" per year and you get half of that in one event, then you are several advisory events away from climo-

Easier said than done to get several advisory events on top of your one biggie that comes with many big nino events (not even a given, just a higher probability than normal) if the temp profile for DJF is +4-+5 (which is what I’m expecting). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, George001 said:

Easier said than done to get several advisory events on top of your one biggie that comes with many big nino events (not even a given, just a higher probability than normal) if the temp profile for DJF is +4-+5 (which is what I’m expecting). 

Really? At our latitude? Care to name the el nino seasons with 3 or fewer advisory events at Boston??

And again...keep in mind that the bulk of that +4 to +5, if accurate, will be achieved at night.....the fact that we radiate to 25 instead of 19 will not necessarily inhibit seasonal snowfall.

[GaWx]

@donsutherland1 Do you happen to have any feel yet for where you expect the very crucial NAO to be this DJF? I'm asking you because I recently had looked at several 2019-20 winter forecast threads and you were the only one I saw who explicitly called for a +NAO, which we know verified quite well:

 

Strongest +NAO DJF since 1950:

2014-5: +1.66

2011-2: +1.37

1994-5: +1.36

2015-6: +1.31

1999-0: +1.30

2017-18: +1.30

2019-0: +1.27

1988-9: +1.26

1993-4: +1.02

2021-2: +1.02

-all 10 since 1988-9

-6 of the 10 since 2011-2

 

-NAO (sub -0.25) DJF since 1950-1:

- 22 of them (30% of winters since 1950-1)

- 16 of these 22 were between 1954-5 and 1978-9 (~50% of winters during that period)

- Only 4 of the 22 sub -0.25 winters were after 1986-7 (11% of winters since 1987-8): 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-1, and 2020-1

- So, only 1 of the last 12 winters (8%) sub -0.25

- Why has there been such a strong tendency away from -NAO winters since 1987-8? Could it be the +AMO? GW?

- Is anyone yet predicting a sub -0.25 NAO for the upcoming DJF? If so, based on what?

[George001]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Really? At our latitude? Care to name the el nino seasons with 3 or fewer advisory events at Boston??

And again...keep in mind that the bulk of that +4 to +5, if accurate, will be achieved at night.....the fact that we radiate to 25 instead of 19 will not necessarily inhibit seasonal snowfall.

1997-1998 and 1972-1973 come to mind, both of which are valid analogs for this season. 97-98 might have had 3, but I’m not sure. Besides, one biggie and 3 advisory events would only get us to climo IF said biggie crushes us. It could easily miss to the south like they often do in strong or super ninos. 

[George001]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Really? At our latitude? Care to name the el nino seasons with 3 or fewer advisory events at Boston??

And again...keep in mind that the bulk of that +4 to +5, if accurate, will be achieved at night.....the fact that we radiate to 25 instead of 19 will not necessarily inhibit seasonal snowfall.

Not necessarily true. Some of it is at night yes, but not enough to justify a forecast of even average snowfall for the Boston area with a +4 to +5 temp profile. It’s possible sure, but I would bet on well BN snowfall in the Boston area if we get a +4-5 temp profile in SNE. Now if it’s +2 DJF and the bulk of that is during December, that’s a completely different story. I’m expecting it to be much warmer, but I will acknowledge that is within the realm of possibilities.

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, George001 said:

1997-1998 and 1972-1973 come to mind, both of which are valid analogs for this season. 97-98 might have had 3, but I’m not sure. Besides, one biggie and 3 advisory events would only get us to climo IF said biggie crushes us. It could easily miss to the south like they often do in strong or super ninos. 

I am willing to bet that you can find one or two duds in EVERY ENSO state.

Often? Jan 2016 is the only super el nino HECS I know of that missed south...and it was a brush, not a whiff.

[FPizz]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am willing to bet that you can find one or two duds in EVERY ENSO state.

Often? Jan 2016 is the only super el nino HECS I know of that missed south...and it was a brush, not a whiff.

Yup, 26" where I am in CNJ

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Preliminary Analysis of the Polar Landscape for Boreal Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather

I haven't made any predictions yet, but there is certainly some evidence for at least a modestly disturbed polar domain.

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

@donsutherland1 Do you happen to have any feel yet for where you expect the very crucial NAO to be this DJF? I'm asking you because I recently had looked at several 2019-20 winter forecast threads and you were the only one I saw who explicitly called for a +NAO, which we know verified quite well:

 

Strongest +NAO DJF since 1950:

2014-5: +1.66

2011-2: +1.37

1994-5: +1.36

2015-6: +1.31

1999-0: +1.30

2017-18: +1.30

2019-0: +1.27

1988-9: +1.26

1993-4: +1.02

2021-2: +1.02

-all 10 since 1988-9

-6 of the 10 since 2011-2

 

-NAO (sub -0.25) DJF since 1950-1:

- 22 of them (30% of winters since 1950-1)

- 16 of these 22 were between 1954-5 and 1978-9 (~50% of winters during that period)

- Only 4 of the 22 sub -0.25 winters were after 1986-7 (11% of winters since 1987-8): 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-1, and 2020-1

- So, only 1 of the last 12 winters (8%) sub -0.25

- Why has there been such a strong tendency away from -NAO winters since 1987-8? Could it be the +AMO? GW?

- Is anyone yet predicting a sub -0.25 NAO for the upcoming DJF? If so, based on what?

 

[raindancewx]

I may update this later. But I'm actually most confident in the snow aspect of the coming cold season. The red numbers are % of the 1961-2020  Oct-May snow average for a spot, and below average. If you see a +Blue% that is the % above the 60-year average you should finish (i.e. +15%, if average is 20 inches = 23").

The blue numbers that say 100% (Grand Junction as an example) without  + are forecast to be exactly average. I have the analogs behind this map, but I don't have a weighting I like yet, so not posting them for now.

[etudiant]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

I may update this later. But I'm actually most confident in the snow aspect of the coming cold season. The red numbers are % of the 1961-2020  Oct-May snow average for a spot, and below average. If you see a +Blue% that is the % above the 60-year average you should finish (i.e. +15%, if average is 20 inches = 23").

The blue numbers that say 100% (Grand Junction as an example) without  + are forecast to be exactly average. I have the analogs behind this map, but I don't have a weighting I like yet, so not posting them for now.

Thank you for posting this. It puts down a marker with solid detail in the forecast.

I only wish your example was generally emulated.

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

I may update this later. But I'm actually most confident in the snow aspect of the coming cold season. The red numbers are % of the 1961-2020  Oct-May snow average for a spot, and below average. If you see a +Blue% that is the % above the 60-year average you should finish (i.e. +15%, if average is 20 inches = 23").

The blue numbers that say 100% (Grand Junction as an example) without  + are forecast to be exactly average. I have the analogs behind this map, but I don't have a weighting I like yet, so not posting them for now.

Seems as though you expect a lot of SE/east coast ridging, if we happen to get the hurricane season in full force the next month and half would the percentages swing at all?

[raindancewx]

The composite doesn't have ridging for the east coast. At 500 mb it's a high over 50N / 70W and a low in the Gulf of Alaska at 45N and 140W. But I don't really think the upper level pattern in aggregate is going to matter very much if it is as volatile this winter as I expect week to week or month to month.

The snow follows the pressure tendency almost exactly.

 

 

[qg_omega]

Historic warm winter looks likely for the east, I expect multiple 70 degree days throughout the winter.  Summer like WAR will link up with continued south based blocking for weeks on end.  

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Historic warm winter looks likely for the east, I expect multiple 70 degree days throughout the winter.  Summer like WAR will link up with continued south based blocking for weeks on end.  

I expect the opposite then

[George001]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I expect the opposite then

If the nino was going to be strong maybe, but it’s going to be super. That leads to a warm pattern in the east.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

If the nino was going to be strong maybe, but it’s going to be super. That leads to a warm pattern in the east.

you're being reductive

[George001]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you're being reductive

Name one super nino that had above average snow in SNE, mid Atlantic sure but SNE and New England does poorly in super ninos due to big storms missing south (raging STJ is better for mid Atlantic, northern stream driven Miller Bs are better for SNE). Also, mild pacific air flooding the nation with warmth makes the overall pattern unfavorable for a run of smaller storms and sustained snowpack. 

[brooklynwx99]

20 minutes ago, George001 said:

Name one super nino that had above average snow in SNE, mid Atlantic sure but SNE and New England does poorly in super ninos due to big storms missing south (raging STJ is better for mid Atlantic, northern stream driven Miller Bs are better for SNE). Also, mild pacific air flooding the nation with warmth makes the overall pattern unfavorable for a run of smaller storms and sustained snowpack. 

I don't entirely disagree, but super Nino = warm doesn't seem to be the right way to go based on the factors presented thus far. this isn't behaving like a typical one and I don't expect it to come winter

also, there is a decent shot that we could see the two halves of the winter vary wildly... look at 14-15, for example. I could see a +5 December and -2 February with above average precip. either way, the way your point is being framed is just too reductive. you also said "in the east," just New England

[roardog]

5 hours ago, George001 said:

Name one super nino that had above average snow in SNE, mid Atlantic sure but SNE and New England does poorly in super ninos due to big storms missing south (raging STJ is better for mid Atlantic, northern stream driven Miller Bs are better for SNE). Also, mild pacific air flooding the nation with warmth makes the overall pattern unfavorable for a run of smaller storms and sustained snowpack. 

Look, the only person around here that knows for sure what will happen this winter is snowman19. Just follow his lead and you’re sure to win. It looks like you already are. lol

[George001]

9 minutes ago, roardog said:

Look, the only person around here that knows for sure what will happen this winter is snowman19. Just follow his lead and you’re sure to win. It looks like you already are. lol

He is definitely warm biased (but so is the climate to be fair), but he knows his shit. He just likes warmer weather, there isn’t anything wrong with that. When it comes to seasonal forecasts though, Raindance is the guy to listen to due to his track record. His preliminary forecast has most of New England (especially coastal SNE) with below average snowfall. My area he has at 60% of average. With the super nino -PDO combo in place that makes a lot of sense, historically that is a really unfavorable pattern for us.
 

Super ninos are warm everywhere, but the reason they are so terrible in New England vs the mid Atlantic is with the juiced STJ you get more Miller As rather than Miller Bs. Those can be good up here, but often we are in the screw zone in those storms due to the best dynamics being to the south (load blown southwest), and stronger ones will often hug the coast or even run inland a bit, which is when our eastern longitude screws us. A good example of this Miller A coastal SNE screw job is the 2010 snowicane, big rainstorm in Boston while NYC gets buried with a 2ft blizzard. If you have too much blocking, they bury the mid Atlantic with ridiculous amounts of snow and then go OTS or scrape us.
 

The thing is though, I would not be panicking at all if I lived in the mid Atlantic. Those same Miller As that screw us can and often are really good for the mid Atlantic, and the mid Atlantic only needs one big storm to exceed climo (very common in super ninos). It all depends on where you live. I just happen to live in an area that does poorly in super ninos so I am pessimistic about this winter for my area. 

[Cobalt]

52 minutes ago, roardog said:

Look, the only person around here that knows for sure what will happen this winter is snowman19. Just follow his lead and you’re sure to win. It looks like you already are. lol

he has correctly predicted 38 of the last 20 warm winters after all.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

he has correctly predicted 38 of the last 20 warm winters after all.

All he does is post random Twitter threads of nobodies to justify his obvious warm bias. 

It's no different than what JB does

[raindancewx]

El Nino winters locally are pretty predictable for highs using a regression incorporating:

- Nino 3.4 for winter 

- Nino 3.4 for prior winter

- Solar conditions

 

The ideal case is a strong El Nino following a strong La Nina with low solar. Generally speaking the scale is this:

Weak El Nino            ------------> Super Warm El Nino  (current winter)

Super Warm El Nino ------------> Super Cold La Nina  (prior winter)

Solar Maximum        -------------> Solar Minimum (July-June annualized) 

The top scale I think of as 26.5C to 28.5C, where 28.5C = 10, and 26.5C = 0.  (1 point = 0.2C)

Middle scale is 24.5C - 28.5C where 24.5C = 10, and 28.5C = 0                        (1 point = 0.4C)

Solar is essentially 0-300 sunspots, where 0 = 10, and 300 = 0                         (1 point = 30 sunspots)

 

A year like 2018-19 was strongly supported to be somewhat cold: Nino 3.4 (4), Nino 3.4 prior (7), Solar (10) - a 7/10.

This year, I get something like this: Nino 3.4 (~7.5), Nino 4 prior (6.5), Solar (4) -  a 6/10, maybe 7 if Nino 3.4 goes up.

A particularly severe winter would be 2009-10 locally:  Nino 3.4 (8), Nino 3.4 prior (7), Solar (10) - 8/10

Very roughly, each average score above/below 5 corresponds to -1 / +1 against long-term averages.

So I expect a -1F type winter here, while 2018-19 was more of a -2F winter against 1991-2020, while 2009-10 was a -3F winter.

[raindancewx]

This is the real regression I use for anyone who cares - rather than the dumbed down version.

B4 is ONI in DJF, B5 is annualized sunspots in July-June, and B6 is ONI in DJF in the prior year. For the past 29 El Ninos, that formula is accurate +/-1.7F in 26 of 29 El Ninos.

ABQ El Nino DJF High = (2.899*B4^2)-(0.0161*B4*B5)+(1.566*B4*B6)+(0.0001046175*B5^2)-(0.017933*B5*B6)-(0.30338*B6^2)-(8.5467*B4)+(0.006026*B5)+(0.9541*B6)+(54.495)

 

El Nino	ONI DJF	Sun Jul-J	ONIp DJF	Tmax Obs	Tmax Proj	Error	Error 48.9
1939	1.0	125.9	-1.0	49.8	48.7	1.10	0.90
1940	1.9	94.4	1.0	49.8	49.3	0.50	0.90
1941	1.1	76.5	1.9	48.9	49.7	0.83	0.03
1945	0.8	95.8	-0.5	47.8	49.5	1.67	1.07
1951	0.5	62.8	-0.8	50.0	50.6	0.58	1.07
1953	0.8	9.5	0.4	50.7	50.2	0.53	1.83
1957	1.8	281.6	-0.2	50.5	50.6	0.13	1.57
1958	0.6	255.4	1.8	50.4	50.5	0.10	1.50
1963	1.1	29.1	-0.4	43.6	47.4	3.83	5.33
1965	1.4	37.1	-0.6	44.4	46.1	1.70	4.50
1968	1.1	155.7	-0.6	48.4	49.3	0.87	0.47
1969	0.5	148.6	1.1	52.0	51.6	0.43	3.13
1972	1.8	75.4	-0.7	45.2	45.5	0.27	3.67
1976	0.7	23.2	-1.6	48.1	46.5	1.60	0.80
1977	0.7	84.1	0.7	50.5	50.5	0.00	1.60
1982	2.2	129.2	-0.1	47.9	47.5	0.43	0.97
1986	1.2	19.1	-0.5	46.7	46.9	0.15	2.20
1987	0.8	65.3	1.2	50.0	50.3	0.33	1.07
1991	1.7	177.8	0.4	48.0	48.0	0.02	0.90
1994	1.0	36.9	0.1	54.4	48.8	5.57	5.47
1997	2.2	54.9	-0.5	47.1	46.6	0.50	1.80
2002	0.9	131.0	-0.1	50.7	49.8	0.90	1.80
2004	0.6	55.3	0.4	50.2	50.8	0.63	1.27
2006	0.7	20.1	-0.8	46.6	48.3	1.67	2.27
2009	1.5	13.2	-0.8	46.6	45.3	1.27	2.33
2014	0.6	90.7	-0.4	51.4	50.8	0.63	2.53
2015	2.5	55.8	0.6	51.4	51.9	0.50	2.50
2018	0.8	5.5	-0.9	48.2	47.3	0.90	0.70
2019	0.5	2.1	0.8	49.8	52.1	2.30	0.90

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

This is the real regression I use for anyone who cares - rather than the dumbed down version.

B4 is ONI in DJF, B5 is annualized sunspots in July-June, and B6 is ONI in DJF in the prior year. For the past 29 El Ninos, that formula is accurate +/-1.7F in 26 of 29 El Ninos.

ABQ El Nino DJF High = (2.899*B4^2)-(0.0161*B4*B5)+(1.566*B4*B6)+(0.0001046175*B5^2)-(0.017933*B5*B6)-(0.30338*B6^2)-(8.5467*B4)+(0.006026*B5)+(0.9541*B6)+(54.495)

 

El Nino	ONI DJF	Sun Jul-J	ONIp DJF	Tmax Obs	Tmax Proj	Error	Error 48.9
1939	1.0	125.9	-1.0	49.8	48.7	1.10	0.90
1940	1.9	94.4	1.0	49.8	49.3	0.50	0.90
1941	1.1	76.5	1.9	48.9	49.7	0.83	0.03
1945	0.8	95.8	-0.5	47.8	49.5	1.67	1.07
1951	0.5	62.8	-0.8	50.0	50.6	0.58	1.07
1953	0.8	9.5	0.4	50.7	50.2	0.53	1.83
1957	1.8	281.6	-0.2	50.5	50.6	0.13	1.57
1958	0.6	255.4	1.8	50.4	50.5	0.10	1.50
1963	1.1	29.1	-0.4	43.6	47.4	3.83	5.33
1965	1.4	37.1	-0.6	44.4	46.1	1.70	4.50
1968	1.1	155.7	-0.6	48.4	49.3	0.87	0.47
1969	0.5	148.6	1.1	52.0	51.6	0.43	3.13
1972	1.8	75.4	-0.7	45.2	45.5	0.27	3.67
1976	0.7	23.2	-1.6	48.1	46.5	1.60	0.80
1977	0.7	84.1	0.7	50.5	50.5	0.00	1.60
1982	2.2	129.2	-0.1	47.9	47.5	0.43	0.97
1986	1.2	19.1	-0.5	46.7	46.9	0.15	2.20
1987	0.8	65.3	1.2	50.0	50.3	0.33	1.07
1991	1.7	177.8	0.4	48.0	48.0	0.02	0.90
1994	1.0	36.9	0.1	54.4	48.8	5.57	5.47
1997	2.2	54.9	-0.5	47.1	46.6	0.50	1.80
2002	0.9	131.0	-0.1	50.7	49.8	0.90	1.80
2004	0.6	55.3	0.4	50.2	50.8	0.63	1.27
2006	0.7	20.1	-0.8	46.6	48.3	1.67	2.27
2009	1.5	13.2	-0.8	46.6	45.3	1.27	2.33
2014	0.6	90.7	-0.4	51.4	50.8	0.63	2.53
2015	2.5	55.8	0.6	51.4	51.9	0.50	2.50
2018	0.8	5.5	-0.9	48.2	47.3	0.90	0.70
2019	0.5	2.1	0.8	49.8	52.1	2.30	0.90

Great work. I wish I had your math skills....really allows you create some wonderful tools.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, George001 said:

He is definitely warm biased (but so is the climate to be fair), but he knows his shit. He just likes warmer weather, there isn’t anything wrong with that. When it comes to seasonal forecasts though, Raindance is the guy to listen to due to his track record. His preliminary forecast has most of New England (especially coastal SNE) with below average snowfall. My area he has at 60% of average. With the super nino -PDO combo in place that makes a lot of sense, historically that is a really unfavorable pattern for us.
 

Super ninos are warm everywhere, but the reason they are so terrible in New England vs the mid Atlantic is with the juiced STJ you get more Miller As rather than Miller Bs. Those can be good up here, but often we are in the screw zone in those storms due to the best dynamics being to the south (load blown southwest), and stronger ones will often hug the coast or even run inland a bit, which is when our eastern longitude screws us. A good example of this Miller A coastal SNE screw job is the 2010 snowicane, big rainstorm in Boston while NYC gets buried with a 2ft blizzard. If you have too much blocking, they bury the mid Atlantic with ridiculous amounts of snow and then go OTS or scrape us.
 

The thing is though, I would not be panicking at all if I lived in the mid Atlantic. Those same Miller As that screw us can and often are really good for the mid Atlantic, and the mid Atlantic only needs one big storm to exceed climo (very common in super ninos). It all depends on where you live. I just happen to live in an area that does poorly in super ninos so I am pessimistic about this winter for my area. 

Raindance is the best, agreed...but nobody is perfect. He did miss the NAO last season, but no one noticed because the record -PDO was so overwhelming that the blocking was negated and had little sensible impact. A similar miss this season with respect to the polar domain will likely have much larger ramifications than it did last year.

[George001]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Raindance is the best, agreed...but nobody is perfect. He did miss the NAO last season, but no one noticed because the record -PDO was so overwhelming that the blocking was negated and had little sensible impact. A similar miss this season with respect to the polar domain will likely have much larger ramifications than it did last year.

That is true, even the best get things wrong sometimes. That said, I still give Raindance full credit for last winter because he went really aggressive and forecasted near record warmth for my area with below normal snow, and that is what happened. Im not saying the NAO doesn’t matter, but the past few years taught me that the pacific is more important for my area than the Atlantic. I’d weight it something like 80% pacific 20% Atlantic. North Atlantic blocking “ups the ante” and leads to strong slow moving storms with loads of precip, but if the pacific doesn’t cooperate it’s just going to be a lot of rain. The pacific pattern is what determines our temp profiles. I’ll take a quick mover with arctic air in place over a slow moving marginal bomb reliant on “creating its own cold air” any day! I’ve been burned by taking the cheese on the whole “it will create its own cold” thing a million times over the past few years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, George001 said:

That is true, even the best get things wrong sometimes. That said, I still give Raindance full credit for last winter because he went really aggressive and forecasted near record warmth for my area with below normal snow, and that is what happened. Im not saying the NAO doesn’t matter, but the past few years taught me that the pacific is more important for my area than the Atlantic. I’d weight it something like 80% pacific 20% Atlantic. North Atlantic blocking “ups the ante” and leads to strong slow moving storms with loads of precip, but if the pacific doesn’t cooperate it’s just going to be a lot of rain. The pacific pattern is what determines our temp profiles. I’ll take a quick mover with arctic air in place over a slow moving marginal bomb reliant on “creating its own cold air” any day! I’ve been burned by taking the cheese on the whole “it will create its own cold” thing a million times over the past few years.

Absolutely.