Winter 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/9/2023 at 12:09 AM, griteater said:

What have you seen?  What are your thoughts?  I think it is reasonable to have 'concerns' over the volcano having impacts on the behavior of the strat PV given the injection of high water vapor anomalies into the strat.  Increased water vapor would favor a cooler stratosphere (as water vapor in the stratosphere radiates incoming infrared energy)

In the ENSO thread...great articles.

Thanks.

[raindancewx]

I'm starting to work on my winter outlook.

Locally, a lot of the driest Summers come before fluky heavy snow or major cold events in October-November. These are the driest "monsoons" locally (i.e. 6/15-9/30) since 1931 - excluding 2023.

1947, 1953, 1976, 1979, 1983, 2000, 2016, 2019, 2020 all had at least some fall snow. 1947, 1953, 2016, 2019, 2020 all had record snow/rain events, with 1976, 1983, 2000, 2020 all seeing major cold snaps (highs in the 30s Nov 1983, lows in the teens in October 2020 with record snow to Mexico, record cold in September 2020 as well, and then the major cold waves of November 2000 and 1976, including a low of -7F in Nov 1976).

Additionally, 1960, 1989, 2003, 2011 are very wet in October. Pretty decent odds we'll finish in the bottom 20 for the monsoon rain. A lot of these years actually have pretty powerful Blue Norther events as well.

2	2003-09-30	1.46	0
3	1953-09-30	1.53	0
4	2011-09-30	1.72	0
5	1960-09-30	1.81	0
6	1948-09-30	1.88	0
7	1962-09-30	2.14	0
8	1956-09-30	2.28	0
9	1989-09-30	2.30	0
10	2000-09-30	2.31	0
11	2020-09-30	2.62	0
12	1947-09-30	2.73	0
13	1979-09-30	2.77	0
14	2019-09-30	2.87	0
15	1954-09-30	2.88	0
16	1983-09-30	2.94	0
17	2016-09-30	3.09	0
18	1976-09-30	3.10	0
19	1951-09-30	3.12	0
-	1950-09-30	3.12	0

[ldub23]

JB has spoken. This  will be the  upcoming winter.

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

honestly those temp and snowfall maps aren’t that unreasonable for late Jan into March. early season might skew it warmer though

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Natural Gas trading back at 2.5, which implies a warmer Winter. The correlation is pretty strong. It had gone up to 3.0, but then a warmer August dropped it lower I guess. 

I have a +PNA signal for early-mid December, but that is before most of the average snowfall occurs for I-95. 

[jayyy]

JB has spoken. This  will be the  upcoming winter.
 
 

I despise his analysis as much as the next weenie… but if we’re truly headed for a moderate to decently strong El Niño, this may be (generally) accurate. Early season could skew things a bit warmer… but I suspect we’ll have a deep wintry period to offset some of that.

Active southern jet & subdued ridging in the Gulf of Mexico = wetter / cooler than normal for the south & mid Atlantic. Signs are also there that we may finally get some relief from the consistent -PNA pattern that’s made our lives hell for the past several years. Should finally see a +PNA pattern or two pop up this winter. We can and have cashed in without a strong block… but it’s very difficult to cash in if we’re also seeing a persistent -PNA regime. Neutral NAO and +PNA is workable…. -PNA not so much.

[George001]

5 hours ago, jayyy said:

I despise his analysis as much as the next weenie… but if we’re truly headed for a moderate to decently strong El Niño, this may be (generally) accurate. Early season could skew things a bit warmer… but I suspect we’ll have a deep wintry period to offset some of that.

Active southern jet & subdued ridging in the Gulf of Mexico = wetter / cooler than normal for the south & mid Atlantic. Signs are also there that we may finally get some relief from the consistent -PNA pattern that’s made our lives hell for the past several years. Should finally see a +PNA pattern or two pop up this winter. We can and have cashed in without a strong block… but it’s very difficult to cash in if we’re also seeing a persistent -PNA regime. Neutral NAO and +PNA is workable…. -PNA not so much.

If we end up at +1.6 ONI yeah I could see maybe a slightly warmer version of his outlook coming to fruition, but the issue is the nino is already +1.2 and it’s only August. Based on that and the recent guidance, it’s probably going to end up more like +2.2 or something. Thats not moderate or even strong, it is super. Super nino = torch in the east.

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

If we end up at +1.6 ONI yeah I could see maybe a slightly warmer version of his outlook coming to fruition, but the issue is the nino is already +1.2 and it’s only August. Based on that and the recent guidance, it’s probably going to end up more like +2.2 or something. Thats not moderate or even strong, it is super. Super nino = torch in the east.

you’re being a bit reductive 

there’s nuance with all of this stuff

[jayyy]

If we end up at +1.6 ONI yeah I could see maybe a slightly warmer version of his outlook coming to fruition, but the issue is the nino is already +1.2 and it’s only August. Based on that and the recent guidance, it’s probably going to end up more like +2.2 or something. Thats not moderate or even strong, it is super. Super nino = torch in the east.

Very true that we could end up in a super niño regime. Believe there are other factors at play though. Weak niños can still end up being dry / warm for the east and super niños can still end up being snowy and cold.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/18/2023 at 4:26 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

honestly those temp and snowfall maps aren’t that unreasonable for late Jan into March. early season might skew it warmer though

Agree. I think the snowfall looks reasonable.

[George001]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree. I think the snowfall looks reasonable.

Normal snowfall for New England in a super nino pattern? I don’t know about that. One storm won’t take us to or over climo like the mid Atlantic. One big storm in a sea of warmth won’t get it done for us. 

[brooklynwx99]

50 minutes ago, George001 said:

Normal snowfall for New England in a super nino pattern? I don’t know about that. One storm won’t take us to or over climo like the mid Atlantic. One big storm in a sea of warmth won’t get it done for us. 

you’re too hung up on the raw ONI dude

[Terpeast]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you’re too hung up on the raw ONI dude

I like the MEI better. Where can I get the latest values? The time series I have only goes up to April

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you’re too hung up on the raw ONI dude

1982-1983 was average.

He is in this overcompensation pattern for his first couple of years on the forum, when he acted like a manic JB. Once he realized that we don't average 100" of snow in coastal SNE, he has never been the same.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I like the MEI better. Where can I get the latest values? The time series I have only goes up to April

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1982-1983 was average.

He is in this overcompensation pattern for his first couple of years on the forum, when he acted like a manic JB. Once he realized that we don't average 100" of snow in coastal SNE, he has never been the same.

So was 1925-26.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

So was 1925-26.

But it was east-based!!!!!! How could that be? I'll bet @snowman19's great grandfather kicked his horse and buggy and smashed all of the lanterns in the cabin.

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He is in this overcompensation pattern for his first couple of years on the forum, when he acted like a manic JB. Once he realized that we don't average 100" of snow in coastal SNE, he has never been the same.

i’ve heard everyone was like this after 01-02, then we got 02-03 

[Terpeast]

20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

Thanks, I see JJ was 0.3 while ONI was 0.8. If it's tracking 0.5 lower, then it should be ~0.8 now while ONI/3.4 are around 1.3. 

And look how strong the La Nina was last year according to the MEI, it peaked at -2.1. I was amazed at how strong the nina's "grip" on the atmospheric pattern last winter despite the ONI being a pedestrian ~-1.0.

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i’ve heard everyone was like this after 01-02, then we got 02-03 

A bunch of seasonal forecasts went bullish for cold/snow in 2001-02 and of course that caused quite a lot of mea culpas and it likely caused the '02-'03 forecasts the next season to be much more conservative in the aggregate. Back then, the tools weren't nearly as plentiful as now, but ENSO was still a huge consideration in most forecasts.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It would be weird if the LR seasonal models miss it this much.. 

Jan contract of Natural Gas is trading at 3.9, which is closer to average. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Thanks, I see JJ was 0.3 while ONI was 0.8. If it's tracking 0.5 lower, then it should be ~0.8 now while ONI/3.4 are around 1.3. 

And look how strong the La Nina was last year according to the MEI, it peaked at -2.1. I was amazed at how strong the nina's "grip" on the atmospheric pattern last winter despite the ONI being a pedestrian ~-1.0.

yup, last year shows why it’s such a great tool. it’ll play a part this year as well

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I like that the MEI agrees with subsurface about how weak the Nino really is right now. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I like that the MEI agrees with subsurface about how weak the Nino really is right now. 

The RONI, as well..... .33

cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't have any issue with essentially punting the first half of winter.....I am not trying to claim a record winter is en route....but rather I find it hard to believe that we won't have some favorable stretches this season.

[George001]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1982-1983 was average.

He is in this overcompensation pattern for his first couple of years on the forum, when he acted like a manic JB. Once he realized that we don't average 100" of snow in coastal SNE, he has never been the same.

No, im being realistic and stopped wishcasting. My area averages 40-50 inches of snow per year. I expect 20-30 inches this year with well AN temps, which I think is more than reasonable for a super nino with a -PDO (most good nino analogs are +PDO). Will we have big winters in the future? Yes, but I just don’t think this winter is our year. There is nothing wrong with that.

[George001]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't have any issue with essentially punting the first half of winter.....I am not trying to claim a record winter is en route....but rather I find it hard to believe that we won't have some favorable stretches this season.

Im sure we will have a decent stretch in there, but im expecting it to be more 2015-2016, 2018-2019, etc than 2002-2003. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, George001 said:

No, im being realistic and stopped wishcasting. My area averages 40-50 inches of snow per year. I expect 20-30 inches this year with well AN temps, which I think is more than reasonable for a super nino with a -PDO (most good nino analogs are +PDO). Will we have big winters in the future? Yes, but I just don’t think this winter is our year. There is nothing wrong with that.

I didn't imply that this fatailstic thought process was "wrong", but rather dysfunctional. The fact is that healthy el nino events leave us prone to high-magnitude snow events.....if you average 40" per year and you get half of that in one event, then you are several advisory events away from climo-

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I have a strong +PNA signal for early to mid Dec (December 1-18)

Its going to depend on the polar fields.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't imply that this fatailstic thought process was "wrong", but rather dysfunctional. The fact is that healthy el nino events leave us prone to high-magnitude snow events.....if you average 40" per year and you get half of that in one event, then you are several advisory events away from climo-

I would argue that "bad El Nino's" were not actually an El Nino pattern..