2023 North Atlantic hurricane forecast contest -- enter by June 4th

[Roger Smith]

(edit for Don reaching hurricane status ...)

For the contest, the count is now 5/1/0 ... here's an overview of storm names

un-named Jan storm, Arlene, Bret, Cindy _ done (4/0/0) Don __ now present, becoming a hurricane on July 22nd. (5/1/0) possible storm names to come:  Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harold, Idalia, Jose, Katia, Lee, Margot Nigel, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, Whitney

[Roger Smith]

Collect the entire set ... four weak to moderate tropical storms in the past few days have swollen the count to 9/1/0. Some chance of Franklin becoming a hurricane next week, would then go to 9/2/0 or even (gasp) 9/2/1. 

Good luck to all of us getting to our numbers from 9/1/0. 

[Roger Smith]

With the arrival of Idalia, and Franklin at hurricane status, the current count is 10/2/0. If forecasts verify the count could soon be 10/3/1. If so, this is what the contest field will need to happen after Idalia: (in brackets, what is needed if Idalia achieves major status... a few forecasts cannot verify and best possible counts are shown, along with highest score possible now ... all other forecasts could verify as shown and their highest possible scores remain 100). Forecast outcomes in brackets are best scoring outcome situations and do not create the original forecast totals. Because number of storms is scored at 1/2 deductions of canes and majors, most of bracketed outcomes are for storms and not canes. Some redistribute errors 3:1 or more to get maximum possible score from any outcome.

(edit _ Wed 30th 06z _ Count now 10/3/2 as Idalia reached major status _ table below edited to show only the values previously in brackets) 

(edit _ Sunday Sept 3rd 06z _ Count now 12/3/2 as Jose and Katia appeared, Jose already absorbed by Franklin). Also Gert has redeveloped after a few days of dormant near-extinction. 

I have removed the table of storms required to reach seasonal totals as it is becoming too complicated by most now having an imbalance of storms and hurricanes, so we'll just go with the simpler "your score as of now" table that will continue to be updated as required. )

(edit _ Sept 7 _ 02z ... table edited for Lee, and  Lee became a major hurricane, count 13/4/3)

(edit _ Sept 7 _ 23z ... table again edited for Margot, assuming eventual non-major hurricane, count 14/5/3).

(edit _ Sept 17 _ 06z _ table again edited for Nigel, assuming eventual non-major hurricane, count 15/6/3).

(edit _ Sept 18 _ 17z _ table now contains alternate scoring to apply to possibility of Nigel becoming major (15/6/4). edit again, withdrawn below ...

(edit _ Sept 22 _ 00z _ table now contains potential scoring for a 16th tropical storm, replacing Nigel as major whIch did not happen. (potential count 16/6/3)

(edit _ Sept 23 _ 06z _ table now edited for Ophelia, count 16/6/3. and potential 17th storm (Philippe) reaching hurricane intensity (17 7 3). Still some chance for Ophelia to reach hurricane intensity before landfall around 12z. If so, will adjust current scores and potential scores. 

(edit _ Sept 24 _ 00z _ table now edited for Philippe, count 17/6/3. alternate scoring still for 17/7/3.)

(edit _ Sept 26 _ 21z _ table again edited for possible Rina as storm and later hurricane, and taking away eventual hurricane status for Philippe _ net addition of one storm to reach 18/7/3 from current 17/6/3.

(edit _ Sept 29 _ 15z _ table edited for current score with Rina now a tropical storm. Leaving potential scoring option same for now, will require one of two active TS to become a 'cane, but at present some chance neither become a cane (less so, two 'canes also possible).

(edit _ Oct 7 _ 06z _ table edited for actual results of P, R ... no 'cane ... and speculation about 19th named storm.

these forecasts and potential max scores will be updated as required.

(19 8 4 speculation ended due to weak outcomes, new post further into thread now speculates about final count and scoring) ... 

_______________________________________
 

(original forecasts) (count now 18 6 3) ... total in brackets would replace score shown for 19 6 3.

 

NOTE: Post is no longer being updated. See replacement post dated Oct 11, 2023. 

 

forum _FORECASTER __________ storms _hurr _major __ (your current score) (will be adjusted as needed)

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ err s _ h _ m _ score (100-sum err)

 

IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ______________21 ____11 ____ 8 ____ -3 -15 -15 ___ 67.0 (68.5)

AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) ___21 ____11 ____ 5 ____ -3 -15 -3 ____ 79.0 (80.5)

--- ___ UK Met Office ____________ 20 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____-1.5 -15 -3 __ 80.5 (81.5)

AM _ Roger Smith (19) ___________ 19 ___ 12 ____ 4 _____-0.5 -21 -1 __ 77.5 (78.0)

AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) ____ 19 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____-0.5 -15 -3 __ 81.5 (82.0)

IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) _______________18 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____ _0 -6 -1 ____ 93.0 (92.5)

AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _________17 ____10 ____ 4 _____ -0.5 -10 -1 __88.5 (87.5)

NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) ____ 17 ____10 ____ 3 _____ -0.5 -10 _0 __89.5 (88.5)

NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4)__ 16 ____11 ____ 5 _____ -1.5 -15 -3 __80.5 (79.0)

NW _ Emmett Garland (NW-1) ____ 16 ____10 ____ 3 _____ -1.5 -10 _0 __88.5 (87.0)

IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) ____________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 5 _____ -1.5 -6 -3 ___89.5 (88.0)

AM _ Ineedsnow (44) _____________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____ -1.5 -6 -1 ___91.5 (90.0)

AM _ wkd (4) ______________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -1.5 -1 -1 ___96.5 (95.0)

AM _ solidicewx (28) ______________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -1.5 -1 -1 ___96.5 (95.0)

AM _ yotaman (31) ________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -1.5  -1 _0 ___97.5 (96.0)

AM _ hotair (18) ___________________ 16 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -1.5 _0 _0 ___98.5 (97.0)

AM _ wxdude64 (15) ______________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -1.5 -1 -1 ____96.5 (95.0)

AM _ GramaxRefugee (33) ________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -1.5 -1 -1 ____96.5 (95.0)

AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) ___________ 15 ____ 8 ____ 4 _____ -3 -3 -1 ____ 93.0 (91.0)

AM _ diggiebot (12) ________________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -3 -1 _0 ____ 96.0 (94.0)

AM _ Torch Tiger (23) ______________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -3 -1 _0 ____ 96.0 (94.0)

--- ___ CSU ________________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 3 ______ -3 -1 _0 ___ 96.0 (94.0)

--- ___ TWC ________________________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 ______ -3 -1 _0 ___ 96.0 (94.0)

AM _ Stebo (26) ___________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 2 ______ -3 -1 -1 ___ 95.0 (93.0)

AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) __________15 ____ 6 ____ 2 ______ -3 _0 -1 ___ 96.0 (94.0)

AM _ Marsman (14) ________________ 15 ____ 4 ____ 2 ______ -3 -3 -1 ___ 93.0 (91.0)

--- ___ NOAA median _______________14.5___7.0 ___2.5 ___-3.8 -1 -0.4 __ 94.8 (92.6)

AM _ JConsor (13) __________________14 ____ 8 ____ 4 _____ -5 -3 -1 ____ 91.0 (88.5)

AM _ nvck (45) _____________________ 14 ____ 8 ____ 3 _____ -5 -3 _0 ____ 92.0 (89.5)

IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) _________________ 14 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -5 -1 _0 ____ 94.0 (91.5)

AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) _________ 14 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -5 _0 _0 ____ 95.0 (92.5)

AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) ___________14 ____ 5 ____ 3 _____ -5 -1 _0 ____ 94.0 (91.5)

 

_______ Consensus _________________ 13.8 __ 6.8 __ 2.8 ___-5.3 -0.7 -0.2__93.8 (91.2)

 

AM _ Yoda (40) _____________________ 13 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 ___ 90.5 (87.5)

AM _ Superstorm93 (22) ___________ 13 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 ___ 90.5 (87.5)

AM _ George BM (41) _______________ 13 ____ 6 ____ 3 ____ -7.5 _0 _0 ___ 92.5 (89.5)

AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) _________ 13 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____ -7.5 _0 -1 ____ 91.5 (88.5)

AM _ North hills wx (24) _____________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -7.5 -1 -1 ____ 90.5 (87.5)

AM _ Newman (30) _________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -7.5 -1 -1 ____ 90.5 (87.5)

AM _ Alfoman (25) __________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -7.5 -1 -3 ____ 88.5 (85.5)

AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) _____________13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -7.5 -1 -3 ____ 88.5 (85.5)

NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _________________12 ____ 11 ____ 1 ____-10.5 -15 -3 __ 71.5 (68.0)

AM _ rclab (43) ______________________12 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -3 _0 ___ 86.5 (83.0)

AM  _ Rhino 16 (2) ___________________ 12 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 (85.0)

AM _ crownweather (11) ____________ 12 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____-10.5 _0 -1 ____ 88.5 (85.0)

AM _ Cat Lady (7) ___________________12 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 90.5 (87.0)

AM _ RJay (17) ______________________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-10.5 -1 -1 ____ 87.5 (84.0)

AM _ cheese007 (35) _______________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-10.5 -1 -1 ____ 87.5 (84.0)

AM _ Eyewall (27) __________________ 12 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____-10.5 -3 -1 ____ 85.5 (82.0)

AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) ______ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -1 -1 _____ 84.0 (80.0)

AM _ mob1 (8) ______________________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -1 -1 _____ 84.0 (80.0)

AM _ Malacka 11 (29) _______________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -1 -1 _____ 84.0 (80.0)

AM _ Matthew70 (32) ______________ 11 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 _____ 82.0 (78.0)

AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan(16)_10.5 __4.5___2 ____-16 -1.9 -1 ____ 81.1 (76.9)

AM _ cnimbus (6) ___________________ 10 ____ 7 ____ 2 ___ -18 -1 -1 ______ 80.0 (75.5)

AM _ GaWx (21) _____________________ 10 ____ 5 ____ 2 ___-18 -1 -1 ______ 80.0 (75.5)

NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) ______10 ____ 4 ____ 2 ___-18 -3 -1 ______ 78.0 (73.5)

AM _ The Iceman (39) _______________10 ____ 4 ____ 1 ___-18 -3 -3 ______ 76.0 (71.5)

AM _ Olafminesaw (9) ________________7 ____ 3 ____ 2 ___-33 -6 -1 _____ 60.0 (54.0)

____________________________________

54 entries (45 AM, 5 NW, 4 IE) and four expert forecasts added

Consensus is derived from contest means (excluding expert forecasts)

<<< SCORES ABOVE WILL BE ADJUSTED EVERY TIME COUNT INCREASES >>>

NOTE: Post is no longer being updated. See replacement post dated Oct 11, 2023. 

 

[Roger Smith]

Jose came and went over the last two days and now Katia is moving north in the central Atlantic. This brings the count to 12/3/2. Edit of previous post underway. 

[Roger Smith]

Lee brings the count to 13/4/2 and quite likely 13/4/3 within a few days. Scoring table updates to follow. (previous post will be edited)

[Roger Smith]

Lee has already become a major, now Margot at TS status is likely to be a (non-major) cane also, table edited again for predicted count of 14/5/3 (currently 14/4/3). 

 

[Roger Smith]

Nigel brings count to 15/5/3 and it sees quite likely to reach 15/6/3 and perhaps 15/6/4. Potential scoring table in a previous post is updated for the more certain 15/6/3 count, will be easy enough to update again to 15/6/4 if necessary.

 

[Roger Smith]

Not convinced Nigel will be a major but I added (in brackets) an alternate total score if it does. Not yet in table would be adjustment to error deduction from alternate 15/6/4 count. 

If Nigel reaches major status, top scores would be 98.5 (wkd, solidicewx, hotair, NorthArlington101).  Later edit, Nigel did not reach major status, count remains 15/6/3. Could soon increase to 16/6/3, giving hotair 100.0 as a score for the present.

I continue to think that 19/8/4 could be the end result and in that case, tae laidir from boards.ie would win contest. 

Almost all of entries below 15/6/3 are now mathematically eliminated. Scoring table will be re-organized in October to show scoring ranks, for now it continues to be ordered by forecast counts. 

[Roger Smith]

Scoring table updated to 16 6 3 count, Ophelia approaches coast as borderline TS or hurricane given that hurricane warnings are in place. So count could be 16 7 3 at any point. Then also, potential TD17 and Philippe could develop next week and run the count to 17 7 3 (or 17 8 3 if Ophelia also briefly a hurricane. Score for hotair now at 100.0 but future activity could reduce that and provide a new leader by next week. 

[Hotair]

7 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Scoring table updated to 16 6 3 count, Ophelia approaches coast as borderline TS or hurricane given that hurricane warnings are in place. So count could be 16 7 3 at any point. Then also, potential TD17 and Philippe could develop next week and run the count to 17 7 3 (or 17 8 3 if Ophelia also briefly a hurricane. Score for hotair now at 100.0 but future activity could reduce that and provide a new leader by next week. 

Let’s call it a season here. 

[Roger Smith]

For many Philippe was not needed, but he is here and the count is now 17/6/3. Scoring table adjusted, leader still hotair, down to 99.5 now. Leader will be yotaman at 99.5 if Philippe becomes a 'cane and no new storms form by then. Still also some chance of a re-think on Ophelia not reaching 'cane status (contest rules in past have stated that count is whatever nhc says by end of year). 

[Roger Smith]

Just changed the scoring table to show potential for another storm after Philippe, and taking away the potential for Philippe to become a hurricane at all. So in net terms it adds one more storm, since the additional hurricane shifts from Philippe to the next one (Rina).

(edit 29th) _ Rina now active as TS, edited scoring to show your current totals, as well as what those would become, if either Philippe or Rina become a hurricane. Different solutions show either one getting that strong next week, but not both. 

Leader continues to be hotair but one more storm or a conversion of present storm to 'cane will shift the lead. 

As season is nowhere near over yet, provisional 19 6 3 option for scoring is not a likely end point, and possibly 20 7 3 is most likely total. A total of 20 7 3 would give us final scores as follows: 

<<< SCORING for 20 7 3 >>>

_ ranks for forecasters only, ranks for organizations and consensus do not alter forecaster ranks _

 

NOTE: As of Oct 11, this continues to be the postulated outcome, but post will not be updated, a new scoring summary replaces Aug 27 post, and this post will be replaced by future speculations in the scoring summary (posted today Oct 11 2023).

 

IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ______________21 ____11 ____ 8 ____ -0.5 -10 -15 __74.5 (43) 

AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) ___21 ____11 ____ 5 ____ -0.5 -10 -3 ___86.5 (t22) 

--- ___ UK Met Office ____________ 20 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____ _0 -10 -3 ___ 87.0 (22) 

AM _ Roger Smith (19) ___________ 19 ___ 12 ____ 4 ____ -0.5 -15 -1 __ 83.5 (30) 

AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) ____ 19 ___ 11 ____ 5 ____ -0.5 -10 -3 __ 86.5 (t22) 

IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) _______________18 ____ 9 ____ 4 ____ -1.5 -3 -1 ___ 94.5 (2) 

AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _________17 ____10 ____ 4 ____ -3 -6 -1 _____ 90.0 (15) 

NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) ____ 17 ____10 ____ 3 ____ -3 -6 _0 ____ 91.0 (t9) 

NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4)__ 16 ____11 ____ 5 ____ -5 -10 -3 ___ 82.0 (t31) 

NW _ Emmett Garland (NW-1) ____ 16 ____10 ____ 3 ____ -5 -6 _0 ____ 89.0 (t17) 

IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) ____________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 5 ____ -5 -3 -3 ____ 89.0 (t17) 

AM _ Ineedsnow (44) _____________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 4 ____ -5 -3 -1 ____ 91.0 (t9) 

AM _ wkd (4) ______________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 ____ -5 _0 -1 ____ 94.0 (t3) 

AM _ solidicewx (28) ______________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____-5 _0 -1 ____ 94.0 (t3) 

AM _ yotaman (31) ________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -5 _0 _0 ____ 95.0 (1) 

AM _ hotair (18) ___________________ 16 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -5 -1 _0 ____ 94.0 (t3)  

AM _ wxdude64 (15) ______________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 ____ 91.0 (t9) 

AM _ GramaxRefugee (33) ________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -6 -1 ____ 91.0 (t9) 

AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) ___________ 15 ____ 8 ____ 4 _____-7.5 -1 -1 ___ 90.5 (t13) 

AM _ diggiebot (12) ________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____-7.5 _0 _0 ___92.5 (t6) 

AM _ Torch Tiger (23) ______________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 ___92.5 (t6) 

--- ___ CSU ________________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 ___92.5 (t6) 

--- ___ TWC ________________________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 ______ -7.5 _0 _0 ___92.5 (t6) 

AM _ Stebo (26) ___________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 2 ______ -7.5 _0 -1 ___91.5 (8) 

AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) __________15 ____ 6 ____ 2 ______ -7.5 -1 -1 ___90.5 (t13) 

AM _ Marsman (14) ________________ 15 ____ 4 ____ 2 ______ -7.5 -6 -1 __ 85.5 (25) 

--- ___ NOAA median _______________14.5___7.0 ___2.5 ____ -9.1 _0 -0.4 __90.5 (t13) 

AM _ JConsor (13) __________________14 ____ 8 ____ 4 _____ -10.5 -1 -1 __ 87.5 (21) 

AM _ nvck (45) _____________________ 14 ____ 8 ____ 3 _____ -10.5 -1 _0 __88.5 (t19) 

IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) _________________ 14 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -10.5 _0 _0 __89.5 (16) 

AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) _________ 14 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -10.5 -1 _0 __88.5 (t19) 

AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) ___________14 ____ 5 ____ 3 _____ -10.5 -3 _0 __86.5 (t22) 

 

_______ Consensus _________________ 13.8 __ 6.8 __ 2.8 ___-11 -0.2 -0.2__ 88.6 (17) 

 

AM _ Yoda (40) _____________________ 13 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -14 _0 -1 ___ 85.0 (t26)

AM _ Superstorm93 (22) ___________ 13 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -14 _0 -1 ___ 85.0 (t26)

AM _ George BM (41) _______________ 13 ____ 6 ____ 3 ____ -14 -1 _0 ___ 85.0 (t26)

AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) _________ 13 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____ -14 -1 -1 ____ 84.0 (29)

AM _ North hills wx (24) _____________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 ____ 82.0 (t31)

AM _ Newman (30) _________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 ____ 82.0 (t31)

AM _ Alfoman (25) __________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 (t36)

AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) _____________13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 (t36)

NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _________________12 ____ 11 ____ 1 ____-18 -10 -3 ___ 69.0 (50)

AM _ rclab (43) ______________________12 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-18 -1 _0 ____ 81.0 (35)

AM  _ Rhino 16 (2) ___________________ 12 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-18 _0 _0 ____ 82.0 (t31)

AM _ crownweather (11) ____________ 12 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____-18 -1 -1 ____ 80.0 (t36)

AM _ Cat Lady (7) ___________________12 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-18 -3 _0 ____ 79.0 (39)

AM _ RJay (17) ______________________12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-18 -3 -1 ____ 78.0 (t40)

AM _ cheese007 (35) _______________12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-18 -3 -1 ____ 78.0 (t40)

AM _ Eyewall (27) ___________________12 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____-18 -6 -1 ____ 75.0 (42)

AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) _______11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ___73.5 (t44)

AM _ mob1 (8) ______________________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ___73.5 (t44)

AM _ Malacka 11 (29) _______________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ___ 73.5 (t44)

AM _ Matthew70 (32) ______________ 11 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -6 -1 ___ 70.5 (48)

AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan(16)_10.5 __4.5___2 ____ -25 -4.4 -1 ___ 69.6 (49)

AM _ cnimbus (6) ___________________ 10 ____ 7 ____ 2 ___ -27.5 _0 -1 ____ 71.5 (47)

AM _ GaWx (21) _____________________ 10 ____ 5 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -3 -1 ____ 68.5 (51)

NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) ______10 ____ 4 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -6 -1 ____ 65.5 (52)

AM _ The Iceman (39) _______________10 ____ 4 ____ 1 ___-27.5 -6 -3 ____ 63.5 (53)

AM _ Olafminesaw (9) ________________7 ____ 3 ____ 2 ___-45.5 -10 -1 ___ 43.5 (54)

 

[Roger Smith]

New today, a scoring update for possible end of season 20/8/3 which is a plausible end of season result ... if that changes I will adjust the table. Then in November-December look for updates as we close in on the actual total. 

Current scoring also updated a few posts back. Count is 18/6/3 until possibly one of two active storms makes it to 'cane status. Option for 18/7/3 is also scored in brackets. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

September 12th is middle of the season. It's hard to imagine we only get 2 more storms from here, unless we go in a below average pattern. 

[Roger Smith]

 

I would agree except we just saw P and R named, and not a lot indicated on model runs in addition to them, so playing it fairly cautious, would not be too surprised to see a count into low 20s, key to scoring changes will be how many are 'canes as few forecasts are now too high for named storms but those tend to require a few more 'canes and one or two more majors to overcome scoring deficit as shown for the 20 8 3 option above. 

20 8 3 will win for tae laidir (of boards.ie) and so would 20 8 4, if we got to 21 9 4 the winner would still be tae laidir with you (SC1) around 2nd, and 22 10 4 is good for you to win. Others near the lead now will drop back as the N error begins to bite. Let's see what season values we are scoring in late October, could be a different story then. I also have a slight chance, I would need every new storm to be a 'cane and certainly one if not two majors. But loving (etc) stuff may have better chances. Winner is almost certain to be somebody in the top portion of the forecast table from Ineedsnow to Stormchaser, I think Pauldry at top of forecasts has too many majors and would only move ahead if four more 'canes produce four more majors. That seems unlikely but not ruled out entirely.

Fairly certain 22, 10 or higher canes, and x majors will win for Stormchaser (x = 5) or Pauldry (x = 8), so any count you want to speculate that is 22 to ??, 10 to ?? depends on number of majors, Stormchaser wins for 4, 5, 6 and Pauldry wins for 7 or more. I may have only one outcome for a win, need to get to 18 8 3 somehow and then go to 22 12 4 or 23 12 4, various other forecasts have my numbers "stymied" but I can hold off higher storm forecasts as my errors there will stay lower for 22 and 23, after that they escalate too far and the lead goes back to the better of the two 21 forecasts. The other 19 forecast -- same logic but needs two majors to score better than me. 

Slowly but surely forecasts lower than 17 total storms are being eliminated mathematically. 

Will post a table of what all plausible counts produce as top scores in a few days. If we get past 23, I think only the 21s have any chance. 

[Roger Smith]

Scoring tables for current count (18 6 3) are found back in Aug 27 post.

Postulated end of season best estimated count is now 20 7 3, scoring is found a few posts back ... yotaman would win if count verified. 

[Roger Smith]

 

Post dated Aug 27 is no longer being updated. This post replaces it with up to date scoring for current count, and future potential scores for next expected developments. 21 7 3 is now estimated to be the most plausible end of season count. 

(edit Oct 19 _ Tammy is now a tropical storm, count 20 6 3).

(edit Oct 21 _ Tammy is now a hurricane and count 20 7 3).

 

Scoring for current count (20 7 3) and postulated 21 7 3, 21 8 3 counts

 

forum _FORECASTER ______ storms _hurr _major __ (your current score) (possible future score)

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ err s _ h _ m _ score (100-sum err)

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 20 7 3 _ _ 21 7 3 _ _ 21 8 3

 

IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ______________21 ____11 ____ 8 ____ -0.5 -10 -15 ___ 74.5 ___ 75.0 ___ 79.0

AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) ___21 ____11 ____ 5 ____ -0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___ 87.0 ___ 91.0

--- ___ UK Met Office ____________ 20 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____ _0 -10 -3 _____ 87.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 90.5

AM _ Roger Smith (19) ___________ 19 ___ 12 ____ 4 _____-0.5 -15 -1 ____ 83.5 ___ 82.5 ___ 87.5

AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) ____ 19 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____-0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___ 85.5 ___ 89.5

IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) _______________18 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____-1.5 -3 -1 _____ 94.5 ___ 93.0 ___ 95.0

AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _________17 ____10 ____ 4 _____ -3 -6 -1 ______ 90.0 ___ 88.0 ___ 91.0

NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) ____ 17 ____10 ____ 3 _____-3 -6 _0 ______ 91.0 ___ 89.0 ___ 92.0

NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4)__ 16 ____11 ____ 5 _____ -5 -10 -3 _____ 82.0 ___ 79.5 ___ 83.5

NW _ Emmett Garland (NW-1) ____ 16 ____10 ____ 3 _____ -5 -6 _0 ______ 89.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 89.5

IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) ____________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 5 _____ -5 -3 -3 ______ 89.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 88.5

AM _ Ineedsnow (44) _____________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 90.5

AM _ wkd (4) ______________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 90.5

AM _ solidicewx (28) ______________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 90.5

AM _ yotaman (31) ________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -5 _0 _0 ______ 95.0 ___ 92.5 ___ 91.5

AM _ hotair (18) ___________________ 16 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -5 -1 _0 ______ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 89.5

AM _ wxdude64 (15) ______________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 85.5

AM _ GramaxRefugee (33) ________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 85.5

AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) ___________ 15 ____ 8 ____ 4 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___ 87.5 ___ 88.5

AM _ diggiebot (12) ________________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 _____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5

AM _ Torch Tiger (23) ______________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 _____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5

--- ___ CSU ________________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 _____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5

--- ___ TWC ________________________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 _____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5

AM _ Stebo (26) ___________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 _0 -1 _____ 91.5 ___ 88.5 ___ 87.5

AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) __________15 ____ 6 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___ 87.5 ___ 85.5

AM _ Marsman (14) ________________ 15 ____ 4 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -6 -1 _____85.5 ___ 82.5 ___ 78.5

--- ___ NOAA median _______________14.5___7.0 ___2.5 ____-9.1 _0 -0.4 ___90.5 ___ 86.7 ___ 85.7

AM _ JConsor (13) __________________14 ____ 8 ____ 4 ____-10.5 -1 -1 _____ 87.5 ___ 84.0 ___ 85.0

AM _ nvck (45) _____________________ 14 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___ 85.0 ___ 86.0

IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) _________________ 14 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-10.5 _0 _0 ____ 89.5 ___ 86.0 ___ 85.0

AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) _________ 14 ____ 6 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___ 85.0 ___ 83.0

AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) ___________14 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -3 _0 ____ 86.5 ___ 83.0 ___ 80.0

 

_______ Consensus ________________ 13.8 __ 6.8 __ 2.8 ___-11.2 -0.2 -0.2__ 88.4 ___ 85.0 ___ 83.8

 

AM _ Yoda (40) _____________________ 13 ____ 7 ____ 4 ____ -14 _0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 80.0

AM _ Superstorm93 (22) ___________ 13 ____ 7 ____ 2 ____ -14 _0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 80.0

AM _ George BM (41) _______________ 13 ____ 6 ____ 3 ____ -14 -1 _0 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 79.0

AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) _________ 13 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____ -14 -1 -1 ____ 84.0 ___ 80.0 ___ 78.0

AM _ North hills wx (24) ____________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 ____ 82.0 ___ 78.0 ___ 75.0

AM _ Newman (30) _________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 ____ 82.0 ___ 78.0 ___ 75.0

AM _ Alfoman (25) __________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___ 76.0 ___ 73.0

AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) _____________13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___ 76.0 ___ 73.0

NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _________________12 ____ 11 ____ 1 ____-18 -10 -3 ___ 69.0 ___ 64.5 ___ 68.5

AM _ rclab (43) ______________________12 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-18 -1 _0 _____ 81.0 ___ 76.5 ___ 77.5

AM  _ Rhino 16 (2) ___________________12 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-18 _0 _0 _____ 82.0 ___ 77.5 ___ 76.5

AM _ crownweather (11) ____________ 12 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____-18 -1 -1 _____ 80.0 ___ 75.5 ___ 73.5

AM _ Cat Lady (7) ___________________12 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-18 -3 _0 _____ 79.0 ___ 74.5 ___ 71.5

AM _ RJay (17) ______________________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___ 73.5 ___ 70.5

AM _ cheese007 (35) _______________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___ 73.5 ___ 70.5

AM _ Eyewall (27) ___________________ 12 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____ -18 -6 -1 _____ 75.0 ___ 70.5 ___ 66.5

AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) _______11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 68.5 ___ 65.5

AM _ mob1 (8) ______________________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 68.5 ___ 65.5

AM _ Malacka 11 (29) _______________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 68.5 ___ 65.5

AM _ Matthew70 (32) ______________ 11 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -6 -1 ____ 70.5 ___ 65.5 ___ 61.5

AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan(16)_10.5 __4.5___2 ____-25 -4.4 -1 ____ 69.6 ___ 64.4___ 62.0

AM _ cnimbus (6) ___________________ 10 ____ 7 ____ 2 ___ -27.5 _0 -1 ____ 71.5 ___ 66.0 ___ 65.0

AM _ GaWx (21) _____________________ 10 ____ 5 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -3 -1 ____ 68.5 ___ 63.0 ___ 60.0

NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) ______10 ____ 4 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -6 -1 ____ 65.5 ___ 60.0 ___ 56.0

AM _ The Iceman (39) _______________10 ____ 4 ____ 1 ___-27.5 -6 -3 ____ 63.5 ___ 58.0 ___ 54.0

AM _ Olafminesaw (9) _______________ 7 ____ 3 ____ 2 ___-45.5 -10 -1 ___ 43.5 ___ 36.5 ___ 31.5

____________________________________

54 entries (45 AM, 5 NW, 4 IE) and four expert forecasts added

Consensus is derived from contest means (excluding expert forecasts)

<<< SCORES ABOVE WILL BE ADJUSTED EVERY TIME COUNT INCREASES >>>

 

[Roger Smith]

Scores for all potential outcomes to 21 storm season

As actual events unfold, some of these outcomes will become invalid and will be removed. from the table. Just for your information. Table assumes Sean will never gain intensity and will die out with count 19 6 3 to start final countdown. Table also assumes maximum of one major out of storms 20 and 21 as well as options for no further hurricanes. 19 6 3 outcome removed with Tammy the 20th storm and 20 6 3 also removed now Tammy is a hurricane. This also removes 21 6 3 from table. 22 7 3 is now added to table.

As Tammy did not become a major, 20 7 4 and 21 7 4 are no longer possible outcomes. 22 8 3 and 22 8 4 replace them. 

Forum _ Forecaster ______________ s ___ h ___ m ___ 2073 __ 2173 __ 2183 __ 2184 __ 2273 __ 2283 __ 2284

 

IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ______________21 __ 11 __ 8 ____ 74.5 ___  75.0 ___ 79.0 __ 84.0 __ 74.5 __ 78.5 __ 83.5

AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) ___21 __ 11 __ 5 ____ 86.5 ___ 87.0 ___ 91.0 __ 93.0 __ 86.5 __ 90.5 __ 92.5

--- ___ UK Met Office ____________ 20 __ 11 __ 5 ____ 87.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 90.5 __ 92.5 __ 85.5 __ 89.5 __ 91.5

AM _ Roger Smith (19) ___________ 19 __ 12 __ 4 ____ 83.5 ___ 82.5 ___ 87.5 __ 88.5 __ 81.0 __ 86.0 __ 87.0

AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) ____ 19 __ 11 __ 5 ____ 86.5 ___ 85.5 ___ 89.5 __ 91.5 __ 84.0 __ 88.0 __ 90.0

IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) _______________18 ___9 __ 4 ____ 94.5 ___ 93.0 ___ 95.0 __96.0 __ 91.0 __ 93.0 __ 94.0

AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _________17 __ 10 __ 4 ____ 90.0 ___ 88.0 ___ 91.0 __ 92.0 __ 85.5 __ 88.5 __ 89.5

NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) ____ 17 __ 10 __ 3 ____ 91.0 ___ 89.0 ___ 92.0 __ 91.0 __ 86.5 __ 89.5 __ 88.5

NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4)__ 16 __ 11 __ 5 ____ 82.0 ___ 79.5 ___ 83.5 __ 85.5 __ 76.5 __ 80.5 __ 82.5

NW _ Emmett Garland (NW-1) ____ 16 __ 10 __ 3 ____ 89.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 89.5 __ 88.5 __ 83.5 __ 86.5 __ 85.5

IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) ____________ 16 ___ 9 __ 5 ____ 89.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 88.5 __ 90.5 __ 83.5 __ 85.5 __ 87.5

AM _ Ineedsnow (44) _____________ 16 ___ 9 __ 4 ____ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 90.5 __ 91.5 __ 85.5 __ 87.5 __ 88.5

AM _ wkd (4) ______________________16 ___ 7 __ 4 ____ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 90.5 __ 91.5 __ 88.5 __ 87.5 __ 88.5

AM _ solidicewx (28) ______________16 ___ 7 __ 4 ____ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 90.5 __ 91.5 __ 88.5 __ 87.5 __ 88.5

AM _ yotaman (31) ________________16 ___ 7 __ 3 ____  95.0 ___ 92.5 ___91.5 __ 90.5 __ 89.5 __ 88.5 __ 87.5

AM _ hotair (18) ___________________16 ___ 6 __ 3 ____ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 89.5 __ 88.5 __ 88.5 __ 86.5 __ 85.5

AM _ wxdude64 (15) ______________16 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 85.5 __ 83.5 __ 85.5 __ 82.5 __ 80.5

AM _ GramaxRefugee (33) ________16 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 85.5 __ 83.5 __ 85.5 __ 82.5 __ 80.5

AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) __________ 15 ___ 8 __ 4 ____ 90.5 ___ 87.5 ___ 88.5 __ 89.5 __ 84.0 __ 85.0 __ 86.0

AM _ diggiebot (12) _______________ 15 ___ 7 __ 3 ____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 __ 87.5 __ 86.0 __ 85.0 __ 84.0

AM _ Torch Tiger (23) _____________ 15 ___ 7 __ 3 ____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 __ 87.5 __ 86.0 __ 85.0 __ 84.0 

--- ___ CSU ________________________15 ___ 7 __ 3 ____ 92.5 ___  89.5 ___ 88.5 __ 87.5 __ 86.0 __ 85.0 __ 84.0

--- ___ TWC _______________________ 15 ___ 7 __ 3 ____ 92.5 ___  89.5 ___ 88.5 __ 87.5 __ 86.0 __ 85.0 __ 84.0

AM _ Stebo (26) ___________________15 ___ 7 __ 2 ____ 91.5 ___ 88.5 ___ 87.5 __ 85.5 __ 85.0 __ 84.0 __ 82.0

AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) _________15 ___ 6 __ 2 ____ 90.5 ___ 87.5 ___ 85.5 __ 83.5 __ 84.0 __ 82.0 __ 80.0

AM _ Marsman (14) ________________15 ___ 4 __ 2 ____ 85.5 ___ 82.5 ___ 78.5 __ 76.5 __ 79.0 __ 75.0 __ 73.0

--- ___ NOAA median _____________14.5___7.0 _2.5 ___ 90.5 ___ 86.7 ___ 85.7 __ 84.4 __ 83.0 __ 82.0 __ 80.7

AM _ JConsor (13) _________________14 ___ 8 __ 4 ____ 87.5 ___ 84.0 ___ 85.0 __ 86.0 __ 80.0 __ 81.0 __ 82.0

AM _ nvck (45) ____________________ 14 ___ 8 __ 3 ____ 88.5 ___ 85.0 ___ 86.0 __ 85.0 __ 81.0 __ 82.0 __ 81.0

IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) ________________ 14 ___ 7 __ 3 ____ 89.5 ___ 86.0 ___ 85.0 __ 84.0 __ 82.0 __ 81.0 __ 80.0

AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) ________ 14 ___ 6 __ 3 ____ 88.5 ___ 85.0 ___ 83.0 __ 82.0 __ 81.0 __ 79.0 __ 78.0

AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) __________14 ___ 5 __ 3 ____ 86.5 ___ 83.0 ___ 80.0 __ 79.0 __ 79.0 __ 76.0 __ 75.0

 

_______ Consensus ________________13.8 __6.8 _ 2.8 ___ 88.6 ___ 85.0 ___ 84.0 __ 82.8 __ 80.9 __ 79.9 __ 78.7

 

AM _ Yoda (40) ___________________ 13 ___ 7 __ 4 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 80.0 __ 81.0 __ 76.5 __ 75.5 __ 76.5

AM _ Superstorm93 (22) __________13 ___ 7 __ 2 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 80.0 __ 78.0 __ 76.5 __ 75.5 __ 73.5

AM _ George BM (41) _____________ 13 ___ 6 __ 3 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 79.0 __ 78.0 __ 76.5 __ 74.5 __ 73.5

AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) _______ 13 ___ 6 __ 2 ____ 84.0 ___ 80.0 ___ 78.0 __ 76.0 __ 75.5 __ 73.5 __ 71.5

AM _ North hills wx (24) ___________13 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 82.0 ___ 78.0 ___ 75.0 __ 73.0 __ 73.5 __ 70.5 __ 68.5

AM _ Newman (30) _______________ 13 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 82.0 ___ 78.0 ___ 75.0 __ 73.0 __ 73.5 __ 70.5 __ 68.5

AM _ Alfoman (25) ________________ 13 ___ 5 __ 1 ____ 80.0 ___ 76.0 ___ 73.0 __ 70.0 __ 71.5 __ 68.5 __ 65.5

AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) ___________13 ___ 5 __ 1 ____ 80.0 ___ 76.0 ___ 73.0 __ 70.0 __ 71.5 __ 68.5 __ 65.5

NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _______________12 ___ 11 __ 1 ____ 69.0 ___ 64.5 ___68.5 __ 65.5 __ 59.5 __ 63.5 __ 60.5

AM _ rclab (43) ____________________12 ___ 8 __ 3 ____ 81.0 ___ 76.5 ___ 77.5 __ 76.5 __ 71.5 __ 72.5 __ 71.5

AM  _ Rhino 16 (2) _________________12 ___ 7 __ 3 ____ 82.0 ___ 77.5 ___ 76.5 __ 75.5 __ 72.5 __ 71.5 __ 70.5

AM _ crownweather (11) __________ 12 ___ 6 __ 2 ____ 80.0 ___ 75.5 __ 73.5 __ 71.5 __ 70.5 __ 68.5 __ 66.5

AM _ Cat Lady (7) _________________12 ___ 5 __ 3 ____ 79.0 ___ 74.5 __ 71.5 __ 70.5 __ 69.5 __ 66.5 __ 65.5

AM _ RJay (17) ____________________ 12 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 78.0 ___ 73.5 __ 70.5 __ 68.5 __ 68.5 __ 65.5 __ 63.5

AM _ cheese007 (35) _____________ 12 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 78.0 ___ 73.5 __ 70.5 __ 68.5 __ 68.5 __ 65.5 __ 63.5

AM _ Eyewall (27) _________________ 12 ___ 4 __ 2 ____ 75.0 ___ 70.5 __ 66.5 __ 64.5 __ 65.5 __ 61.5 __ 59.5

AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) _____ 11 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 73.5 ___ 68.5 __ 65.5 __ 63.5 __63.0 __ 60.0 __ 58.0

AM _ mob1 (8) _____________________ 11 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 73.5 ___ 68.5 __ 65.5 __ 63.5 __63.0 __ 60.0 __ 58.0

AM _ Malacka 11 (29) _____________  11 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 73.5 ___ 68.5 __ 65.5 __ 63.5 __63.0 __ 60.0 __ 58.0

AM _ Matthew70 (32) _____________ 11 ___ 4 __ 2 ____ 70.5 ___ 65.5 __ 61.5 __ 59.5 __60.0 __ 56.0 __ 54.0

AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan(16)_10.5 __4.5__2 __ 69.6 __ 64.4 __ 61.4 __ 58.0 __58.7 __ 55.7 __52.3

AM _ cnimbus (6) __________________ 10 ___ 7 __ 2 ___  71.5 ___ 66.0 __ 65.0 __ 63.0 __60.0 __ 59.0 __ 57.0

AM _ GaWx (21) ____________________ 10 ___ 5 __ 2 ___ 68.5 ___ 63.0 __ 60.0 __ 58.0 __57.0 __ 54.0 __ 52.0

NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) _____ 10 ___ 4 __ 2 ___ 65.5 ___ 60.0 __ 56.0 __ 54.0__ 54.0 __ 50.0 __ 48.0

AM _ The Iceman (39) ______________ 10 ___ 4 __ 1 ___ 63.5 ___ 58.0 __ 54.0 __ 51.0__ 52.0 __ 48.0 __ 45.0

AM _ Olafminesaw (9) _______________ 7 ___ 3 __ 2 ___ 43.5 ___ 36.5 __ 34.5 ___ 29.5__ 29.0 __ 27.0 __ 22.0

Forum _ Forecaster ______________ s ___ h ___ m ___ 2073 __ 2173 __ 2183 __ 2184 __ 2273 __ 2283 __ 2284

____________________________________

54 entries (45 AM, 5 NW, 4 IE) and four expert forecasts added

Consensus is derived from contest means (excluding expert forecasts)

[Roger Smith]

Scoring tables current and postulated future versions, updated for Tammy (count now 20 6 3) and as it seems likely to become a 'cane, 20 7 3 scores in tables are likely to become current scores soon. 

(edit 20 7 3 is in fact now current count as of 21st 06z)

[Roger Smith]

Current scoring in order

(with alternate scoring for one additional storm)

(scroll down for final scoring table)

 

forum _FORECASTER ______ storms _hurr _major __ (your current score) (possible future score)

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ err s _ h _ m _ score (100-sum err)

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _S _ _ _H _ _ _ M _ _(deductions) _ 20 7 3 _ _ 21 7 3 _ _ 21 8 3

 

AM _ yotaman (31) _______________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -5 _0 _0 ______ 95.0 ___ 92.5 ___ 91.5

IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) ______________ 18 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____-1.5 -3 -1 _____ 94.5 ___ 93.0 ___ 95.0

 

AM _ wkd (4) _____________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 90.5

AM _ hotair (18) __________________ 16 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -5 -1 _0 ______ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 89.5

AM _ solidicewx (28) _____________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 90.5

AM _ diggiebot (12) _______________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 _____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5

AM _ Torch Tiger (23) _____________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5

--- ___ CSU _______________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5

--- ___ TWC _______________________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5

AM _ Stebo (26) __________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 _0 -1 _____ 91.5 ___ 88.5 ___ 87.5

NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) ____ 17 ____10 ____ 3 _____-3 -6 _0 ______ 91.0 ___ 89.0 ___ 92.0

AM _ wxdude64 (15) _____________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 85.5

AM _ GramaxRefugee (33)_______ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 _______ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 85.5

AM _ Ineedsnow (44) _____________16 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 90.5

AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) _________15 ____ 6 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___ 87.5 ___ 85.5

--- ___ NOAA median ______________14.5___7.0 ___2.5 ____-9.1 _0 -0.4 ___90.5 ___ 86.7 ___ 85.7

AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) __________15 ____ 8 ____ 4 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___ 87.5 ___ 88.5

AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _________17 ____10 ____ 4 _____ -3 -6 -1 ______ 90.0 ___ 88.0 ___ 91.0

IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) _______________ 14 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-10.5 _0 _0 ____ 89.5 ___ 86.0 ___ 85.0

NW _ Emmett Garland (NW-1) ___ 16 ____10 ____ 3 _____ -5 -6 _0 ______ 89.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 89.5

IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) ___________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 5 _____ -5 -3 -3 ______ 89.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 88.5

AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) _______ 14 ____ 6 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___ 85.0 ___ 83.0

AM _ nvck (45) ___________________ 14 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___ 85.0 ___ 86.0

 

_______ Consensus _______________ 13.8 __ 6.8 __ 2.8 ___-11.2 -0.2 -0.2__ 88.4 ___ 85.0 ___ 83.8

 

AM _ JConsor (13) _________________14 ____ 8 ____ 4 ____-10.5 -1 -1 _____ 87.5 ___ 84.0 ___ 85.0

--- ___ UK Met Office _____________ 20 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____ _0 -10 -3 _____ 87.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 90.5

AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) _________ 14 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -3 _0 ____ 86.5 ___ 83.0 ___ 80.0

AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) _____19 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____-0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___ 85.5 ___ 89.5

AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) ___ 21 ____11 ____ 5 ____ -0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___ 87.0 ___ 91.0

AM _ Marsman (14) _______________ 15 ____ 4 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -6 -1 _____85.5 ___ 82.5 ___ 78.5

AM _ Superstorm93 (22) __________13 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -14 _ 0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 80.0

AM _ Yoda (40) ____________________13 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -14 _0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 80.0

AM _ George BM (41) ______________13 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -14 -1 _0 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 79.0

AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) ________13 ____ 6 ____ 2 _____ -14 -1 -1 _____ 84.0 ___ 80.0 ___ 78.0

AM _ Roger Smith (19) ____________ 19 ___ 12 ____ 4 _____-0.5 -15 -1 ___ 83.5 ___ 82.5 ___ 87.5

NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) __ 16 ____11 ____ 5 _____ -5 -10 -3 ____ 82.0 ___ 79.5 ___ 83.5

AM  _ Rhino 16 (2) _________________ 12 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-18 _0 _0 _____ 82.0 ___ 77.5 ___ 76.5

AM _ North hills wx (24) ___________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 ____ 82.0 ___ 78.0 ___ 75.0

AM _ Newman (30) ________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 ____ 82.0 ___ 78.0 ___ 75.0

AM _ rclab (43) ____________________ 12 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-18 -1 _0 _____ 81.0 ___ 76.5 ___ 77.5

AM _ crownweather (11) ___________ 12 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____-18 -1 -1 _____ 80.0 ___ 75.5 ___ 73.5

AM _ Alfoman (25) _________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___ 76.0 ___ 73.0

AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) ____________13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___ 76.0 ___ 73.0

AM _ Cat Lady (7) _________________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-18 -3 _0 _____ 79.0 ___ 74.5 ___ 71.5

AM _ RJay (17) ____________________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___ 73.5 ___ 70.5

AM _ cheese007 (35) _____________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___ 73.5 ___ 70.5

AM _ Eyewall (27) _________________ 12 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____-18 -6 -1 _____ 75.0 ___ 70.5 ___ 66.5

IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ______________ 21 ____11 ____ 8 ____ -0.5 -10 -15 ___74.5 ___ 75.0 ___ 79.0

AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) _____11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 68.5 ___ 65.5

AM _ mob1 (8) ____________________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 68.5 ___ 65.5

AM _ Malacka 11 (29) _____________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 68.5 ___ 65.5

AM _ cnimbus (6) _________________ 10 ____ 7 ____ 2 ___ -27.5 _0 -1 ____ 71.5 ___ 66.0 ___ 65.0

AM _ Matthew70 (32) ____________ 11 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -6 -1 ____70.5 ___ 65.5 ___ 61.5

AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan(16)_10.5__4.5__2 ___-25 -4.4 -1 ____ 69.6 ___ 64.4___ 62.0

NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _______________ 12 ____ 11 ____ 1 ___-18 -10 -3 ____ 69.0 ___ 64.5 ___ 68.5

AM _ GaWx (21) ___________________ 10 ____ 5 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -3 -1 ____ 68.5 ___ 63.0 ___ 60.0

NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) ____10 ____ 4 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -6 -1 ____ 65.5 ___ 60.0 ___ 56.0

AM _ The Iceman (39) _____________10 ____ 4 ____ 1 ___-27.5 -6 -3 ____ 63.5 ___ 58.0 ___ 54.0

AM _ Olafminesaw (9) _____________ 7 ____ 3 ____ 2 ___-45.5 -10 -1 ___ 43.5 ___ 36.5 ___ 31.5

____________________________________

54 entries (45 AM, 5 NW, 4 IE) and four expert forecasts added

NW = Net-weather (UK forum) and IE = boards.ie weather forum

Consensus is derived from contest means (excluding expert forecasts)

========================================

 

Final results 2023 Tropical Contest

 

** note:  ranks are shown (a) all entrants and (b) within your home forum, as three forums were participating (American Weather had the majority of entries, Boards.ie and Net-weather also had a few entries). As an example of how to read your contest ranks, taking 19th place North Arlington 101, that entry was 19th overall and 14th among American Weather Forum entrants. (19 14AM).

Ranks are given for non-contest entrants but those do not affect later ranks of actual contest entrants. 

 

 

forum _FORECASTER ______ storms _hurr _major __ (your final score) 

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ err s _ h _ m _ score (100-sum err)

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _S _ _ _H _ _ _ M _ _(deductions) _ 20 7 3 

 

Ranks**

01 01AM _ yotaman (31) _______________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -5 _0 _0 ______ 95.0 ___ 

02 01IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) ______________ 18 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____-1.5 -3 -1 _____ 94.5 ___

03 02AM _wkd (4) _____________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___ 

04 03AM _hotair (18) __________________ 16 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -5 -1 _0 ______ 94.0 ___ 

05 04AM _solidicewx (28) _____________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___ 

06 05AM _diggiebot (12) _______________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 ____ 92.5 ___ 

07 06AM _Torch Tiger (23) _____________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___ 

(08) --- ___ CSU _______________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___ 

(08) --- ___ TWC _______________________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___ 

08 07AM _ Stebo (26) __________________15 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 _0 -1 _____ 91.5 ___ 

09 01NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) ____17 ____10 ____ 3 _____-3 -6 _0 ______ 91.0 ___ 

10 08AM _ wxdude64 (15) _____________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 

11 09AM _ GramaxRefugee (33) _______ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 

12 10AM _ Ineedsnow (44) _____________16 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 

13 11AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) _________15 ____ 6 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___

(13) --- __ NOAA median ______________14.5___7.0 ___2.5 ____-9.1 _0 -0.4 ____ 90.5 ___ 

14 12AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) __________15 ____ 8 ____ 4 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___ 

15 13AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _________17 ____10 ____ 4 _____ -3 -6 -1 ______ 90.0 ___ 

16 02IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) _______________ 14 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-10.5 _0 _0 ____ 89.5 ___ 

17 02NW _Emmett Garland (NW-1) ____ 16 ____10 ____ 3 _____ -5 -6 _0 ______89.0 ___ 

18 03IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) ___________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 5 _____ -5 -3 -3 ______ 89.0 ___ 

19 14AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) _______14 ____ 6 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___ 

20 15AM _ nvck (45) ___________________ 14 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___

 

21 ---- _______ Consensus ___________ 13.8 __ 6.8 __ 2.8 ___-11.2 -0.2 -0.2__ 88.4 ___ 

 

21 16AM _ JConsor (13) ________________14 ____ 8 ____ 4 ____-10.5 -1 -1 _____ 87.5 ___ 

22 ---- ___ UK Met Office _____________ 20 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____ _0 -10 -3 _____ 87.0 ___ 

22 17AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) ________ 14 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -3 _0 ____ 86.5 ___ 

23 18AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) _____19 ___ 11 ____ 5 ____ -0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___

24 19AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) ___21 ____11 ____ 5 ____ -0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___

25 20AM _ Marsman (14) ______________ 15 ____ 4 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -6 -1 _____85.5 ___ 

26 21AM _ Superstorm93 (22) __________13 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -14 _ 0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___ 

27 22AM _ Yoda (40) ___________________13 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -14 _ 0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___

28 23AM _ George BM (41) _____________13 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -14 -1 _0 ____ 85.0 ___ 

29 24AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) _______ 13 ____ 6 ____ 2 _____ -14 -1 -1 ____ 84.0 ___ 

30 25AM _ Roger Smith (19) ____________19 ___ 12 ____ 4 _____-0.5 -15 -1 ___ 83.5 ___

31 03NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) __ 16 ____11 ____ 5 _____ -5 -10 -3 ____82.0 ___ 

32 26AM  _ Rhino 16 (2) _________________12 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-18 _0 _0 _____ 82.0 ___ 

33 27AM _ North hills wx (24) __________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 _____ 82.0 ___ 

34 28AM _ Newman (30) _______________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 _____ 82.0 ___ 

35 29AM _ rclab (43) ___________________ 12 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____ -18 -1 _0 _____ 81.0 ___ 

36 30AM _ crownweather (11) __________ 12 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____ -18 -1 -1 _____ 80.0 ___ 

37 31AM _ Alfoman (25) _________________13 ____ 5 ____ 1 _____-14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___ 

38 32AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) ___________13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___ 

39 33AM _ Cat Lady (7) ________________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____ -18 -3 _0 ____ 79.0 ___ 

40 34AM _ RJay (17) ____________________12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___ 

41 35AM _ cheese007 (35) _____________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___ 

42 36AM _ Eyewall (27) _________________12 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____ -18 -6 -1 _____ 75.0 ___ 

43 04IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ______________ 21 ____11 ____ 8 ____ -0.5 -10 -15 ___74.5 ___ 

44 37AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) _____ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 

45 38AM _ mob1 (8) ____________________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 

46 39AM _ Malacka 11 (29) _____________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 

47 40AM _ cnimbus (6) _________________ 10 ____ 7 ____ 2 ___ -27.5 _0 -1 ____ 71.5 ___

48 41AM _ Matthew70 (32) _____________ 11 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____-22.5 -6 -1 ____70.5 ___ 

49 42AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan(16)_10.5__4.5__2 ___-25 -4.4 -1 ____ 69.6 ___ 

50 04NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _______________ 12 ____ 11 ___ 1 ___-18 -10 -3 _____ 69.0 ___ 

51 43AM _ GaWx (21) ____________________10 ____ 5 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -3 -1 ____ 68.5 ___ 

52 05NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) ____ 10 ____ 4 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -6 -1 ____ 65.5 ___ 

53 44AM _ The Iceman (39) _____________ 10 ____ 4 ____ 1 ___ -27.5 -6 -3 ____ 63.5 ___ 

54 45AM _ Olafminesaw (9) ______________ 7 ____ 3 ____ 2 ___ -45.5 -10 -1 ___ 43.5 ___ 

____________________________________

54 entries (45 AM, 5 NW, 4 IE) and four expert forecasts added

NW = Net-weather (UK forum) and IE = boards.ie weather forum

Consensus is derived from contest means (excluding expert forecasts)

[Roger Smith]

Results are now final as no further activity since last table posted. 

Congrats to yotaman, contest winner, and tae laidir from boards.ie, a very close second place. 

Ties in scoring are broken by order of entry as shown in table above. 

I have added ranks to table. There is an overall ranking (excluding non-entrants such as "expert forecasts" and contest consensus values) and a ranking within your own forum since three participated. 

(all info in previous post)