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2023 North Atlantic hurricane forecast contest -- enter by June 4th


Roger Smith
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Wow, this contest may require an assistant director at this rate. There will also be about a dozen along from two other forums in UK and Ireland. I will rank them in but issue two ranking lists at end of play so you can see how you did against American Weather folk and the somewhat larger global field. Expert forecasts will be scored but ranked outside your ranks. 

As I've been saying, you can edit away to end of Sunday June 4 without posting about it, as I have not collected the forecasts yet. 

FAQ

1. January storm ... does it count? Yes, the contest asks you to predict the count at end of year.

2. December storms ... do they count? Yes, same as above. 

3. Tropical depressions not reaching TS status, not named, not in the count -- these do not count unless re-analyzed before Dec 31st. 

4. Storms that have two active life cycles. They count as one as per NOAA protocols. 

5. Prizes? Yes, promotion to PGA tour. You must also excel at golf and qualify some other way. So it's not a real prize. 

6. Prestige? I think so, if you can beat 50 people and the recognized experts, that says something. 

7. Same forecast as somebody else ... up to you to check for this, earliest post ranks higher.

8. Medicanes, South Atlantic canes ... no, and no. 

SCORING SYSTEM

will be same as past two years, explained with table of forecasts in a few days. Basically, you lose fewer points for errors in storm count than in hurricane and major counts (this after that season with the 30 count that gave almost everyone a negative score). 

Decimal forecasts are allowed and are scored from their precise values. 

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Posting a bit early to allow entrants to review duplicate forecasts and see the full range of forecasts from other locations.

 

 

Table of entries for 2023 Seasonal Tropical Contest

 

_ number in brackets after forecaster name is the order of entry, applies to last revision or edit only _ 

Note: Entries are being received from American Weather Forum (AM), Net-weather (NW) and Boards.ie weather (IE). Contest will be ranked at end of season in two sets, one for American Weather Forum entrants only, and one for all entrants. Three additional entries are shown for NOAA, UKMO, and CSU. These will be scored and ranked but those ranks will not bump any forecasters down in the contest ranks.

Scoring system: Start from 100 points. Deduct average of error and error squared for hurricanes and majors. Deduct 50% of same for storms. Example. For outcome 13/7/4. forecast of 15/8/1 loses (a) 50% of (2+4)/2 for storm error, 1.5 deduction; (b) (1+1)/2 for hurricane count error, 1.0 deduction; (c) (3+9)/2 for major hurricane count error, 6.0 deduction. Total deductions 8.5, score 100-8.5 = 91.5. This system gives more weight to accuracy of the prediction of stronger storms and reduces the chance of a contest-wide score degradation if there is an unusual number of named storms. Any total score calculation below 0 is scored at zero points. In past contest years, scores of 98 to 100 have often won the contest. 

The table of entries is ordered by count of storms, then hurricanes, and majors. 

 

forum _FORECASTER _________________ storms _ hurr _ major

IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ____________________21 _____11 _____ 8

AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) _________21 _____11 _____ 5

--- ___ UK Met Office __________________ 20 ____ 11 _____ 5

AM _ Roger Smith (19) _________________ 19 ____ 12 _____ 4

AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) __________ 19 ____ 11 _____ 5

IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) _____________________18 _____ 9 _____ 4

AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _______________17 _____10 _____ 4

NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) __________17 _____10 _____ 3

NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) _______ 16 _____11 _____ 5

NW _ Emmett Garland (NW-1) __________16 _____10 _____ 3

IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) __________________16 _____ 9 _____ 5

AM _ Ineedsnow (44) __________________ 16 _____ 9 _____ 4

AM _ wkd (4) ___________________________ 16 _____ 7 _____ 4

AM _ solidicewx (28) ___________________ 16 _____ 7 _____ 4

AM _ yotaman (31) ______________________16 _____ 7 _____ 3

AM _ hotair (18) _________________________16 _____ 6 _____ 3

AM _ wxdude64 (15) ___________________ 16 _____ 5 _____ 2

AM _ GramaxRefugee (33) _____________ 16 _____ 5 _____ 2

AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) ________________ 15 _____ 8 _____ 4

AM _ diggiebot (12) _____________________15 _____ 7 _____ 3

AM _ Torch Tiger (23) __________________ 15 _____ 7 _____ 3

--- ___ CSU _____________________________ 15 _____ 7 _____ 3 (updated June 1st) 

--- ___ TWC _____________________________15 _____ 7 _____ 3

AM _ Stebo (26) ________________________ 15 _____ 7 _____ 2

AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) ______________ 15 _____ 6 _____ 2

AM _ Marsman (14) ____________________ 15 _____ 4 _____ 2

--- ___ NOAA median ___________________14.5 ____7.0 ____2.5

AM _ JConsor (13) ______________________14 _____ 8 _____ 4

AM _ nvck (45) _________________________ 14 _____ 8 _____ 3

IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) _____________________ 14 _____ 7 _____ 3

AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) _____________ 14 _____ 6 _____ 3

AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) _______________ 14 _____ 5 _____ 3

AM _ Yoda (40) _________________________ 13 _____ 7 _____ 4

AM _ Superstorm93 (22) _______________ 13 _____ 7 _____ 2

_______ Consensus _____________________ 13.8 ___ 6.8 ___ 2.8

AM _ George BM (41) ___________________ 13 _____ 6 _____ 3

AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) _____________ 13 _____ 6 _____ 2

AM _ North hills wx (24) _________________ 13 _____ 5 _____ 2

AM _ Newman (30) _____________________ 13 _____ 5 _____ 2

AM _ Alfoman (25) ______________________ 13 _____ 5 _____ 1

AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) ________________ 13 _____ 5 _____ 1

NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _____________________12 _____11 _____ 1

AM _ rclab (43) _________________________ 12 _____ 8 _____ 3

AM  _ Rhino 16 (2) _______________________ 12 _____ 7 _____ 3

AM _ crownweather (11) ________________ 12 _____ 6 _____ 2

AM _ Cat Lady (7) ______________________ 12 _____ 5 _____ 3

AM _ RJay (17) __________________________12 _____ 5 _____ 2

AM _ cheese007 (35) ___________________12 _____ 5 _____ 2

AM _ Eyewall (27) ______________________ 12 _____ 4 _____ 2

AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) __________ 11 _____ 5 _____ 2

AM _ mob1 (8) __________________________ 11 _____ 5 _____ 2

AM _ Malacka 11 (29) ___________________ 11 _____ 5 _____ 2

AM _ Matthew70 (32) __________________ 11 _____ 4 _____ 2

AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan (16) ___10.5 ___4.5 ____ 2

NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) __________10 _____ 4 _____ 2

AM _ cnimbus (6) _______________________ 10 _____ 7 _____ 2

AM _ GaWx (21) _________________________ 10 _____ 5 _____ 2

AM _ The Iceman (39) __________________ 10 _____ 4 _____ 1

AM _ Olafminesaw (9) ___________________ 7 _____ 3 _____ 2

____________________________________

54 entries (45 AM, 5 NW, 4 IE) and four expert forecasts added

Consensus is derived from contest means (excluding expert forecasts)

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14 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

If you guessed the following, your entry has a duplicate value with another entry(at least as far as I managed to not fat finger in excel):

11/5/2 (3x), 12/5/2, 13/5/1, 13/5/2, 15/7/3, 16/5/2, 16/7/4

I reviewed the info you provided and all details are correct, so I have posted the entries as they appear now, to give entrants an easier path to making adjustments if they wish. So far, none of the "other" forecasts from off-site happen to overlap. 

Will review the situation again late Sunday near deadline and perhaps contact anyone who still has a "later duplicate" entry. Earlier duplicates do not need to take any action. (nor do later duplicates if you don't mind the restriction on eventual ranking)

Another point not made earlier, identical scores from different forecasts will be ranked by order of entry. 

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LAST DAY FOR ENTRIES or EDITS (deadline 06z) _ UPDATE _ DEADLINE EXTENSION FOR EDITS BUT NO NEW ENTRIES

 

Please check my recent post about duplicate entries (thanks to Olafminesaw for spotting them) ... I will extend the deadline by 48h to 06z June 7 for one category of edit, namely, to change any duplicate entry. New entries not allowed in that extension period. To be fair, anyone else can edit any submitted forecast. You would lose your original order of entry except if you change a duplicate forecast by one element and one number. 

Late edits of duplicates cannot  become duplicates of any entries already made unless you specify a willingness to take an order of entry at your new forecast position.

Note my comment yesterday that order of entry also determines rank of similar scores from different count forecasts. (e.g., 16/8/3 will score the same for 16/7/3 and 16/8/2, etc).

Example, you change 14 7 4 to 14 7 5, no order of entry adjustment.

You change 14 7 4 to 16 10 5, order of entry adjustment applies. 

New entries above note, I will add you to the table of entries in a later edit and move the table of forecasts to a June 7 posting after all forecast activity has ended. 

The count is already 2/0/0 (on its way to 19/12/4) :)

__________________

If your entry duplicates only an "expert" forecast (e.g. CSU) that does not require any action, your rank will not be affected. 

 

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