Roger Smith Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 Same format as previous years, simply predict the number of * named storms * hurricanes * major hurricanes Will close off entries around June 1st depending on how many entries we have and status of outlooks at that time. Please note, contest will include any storms named before June 4th (deadline adjusted to 06z June 5, 2023). Also note, count is 1/0/0 as of now, a system in January has been re-classified as an un-named tropical storm. Your forecast should include that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 Let’s go for… 14/6/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 12/7/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 9/4/2. Betting on a 97 El Nino. 11 years since Sandy, I teach statistics and probability, I know 'due' is not science, but I don't care, NY/New England are due. One of the 4, maybe even the 2, through E Nassau and into Connecticut, and just W of the river into Massachusetts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 We also didn't get a Gulf coast hurricane for 11 years following Katrina. It was a time of above normal Atlantic activity, making it one of the greatest anomalies of our time. I wouldn't bet on a NE hit this year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 11/5/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 16/7/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 14/5/3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnimbus Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 10/7/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cat Lady Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 12/5/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 11/5/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 7/3/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 17/10/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 12/6/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 15 storms 7 hurricanes 3 majors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 14 storms 8 hurricanes 4 major hurricanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 I'm still feeling somewhat below normal, based on what will be a super ENSO event (although there is useful discussion on the ENSO thread that warm anomalies outside the ENSO 3.4 region may change the expected atmospheric response. Below normal, but not super-bearish. Euro forecasts don't show what I'd expect from a 97ish ENSO, but then again, almost all the oceans are shown with decent probability of above normal SSTs. I'm staying 9/4/2 because it looks like many are going normal (~14, 7, 3) so I'm separated from the pack. The above NY/New England comment, I'm aware the chance in any one year is low. Not pictured, 3 month Euro 500 mb heights, the whole world is normal to above normal with a few small areas with some probability of below, which doesn't seem possible. The whole world can't have higher than normal 500 mb heights, can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 Does the storm from January count as a named storm for these forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 17, 2023 Author Share Posted May 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Rhino16 said: Does the storm from January count as a named storm for these forecasts? Apparently its status is un-named subtropical storm. Let's say for clarity we will count it and assume they include it in the count so we will go with a current value of 1/0/0 for your predictions. If there is some clarification of this before contest closes, I will certainly give people the option of adjusting their forecasts by 1. For now, assume the official count will start at 1/0/0 before named storms are added. I will post some "expert" forecast values before the contest closes to entries. So far they look a bit lower than many recent seasons (CSU is 13, 6, 2). TWC is at 15, 7, 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 15/4/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 16/5/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 On 5/12/2023 at 6:53 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 9/4/2. Betting on a 97 El Nino. 11 years since Sandy, I teach statistics and probability, I know 'due' is not science, but I don't care, NY/New England are due. One of the 4, maybe even the 2, through E Nassau and into Connecticut, and just W of the river into Massachusetts. Adjusted to 10.5/ 4.5/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Adjusted to 10.5/ 4.5/ 2 On 5/12/2023 at 7:53 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 9/4/2. Betting on a 97 El Nino. 11 years since Sandy, I teach statistics and probability, I know 'due' is not science, but I don't care, NY/New England are due. One of the 4, maybe even the 2, through E Nassau and into Connecticut, and just W of the river into Massachusetts. Aiui, the most comparable event to Sandy for NYC was the 1821 hurricane, so statistically we're ok this century. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 22, 2023 Share Posted May 22, 2023 12/5/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted May 22, 2023 Share Posted May 22, 2023 16/6/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 24, 2023 Author Share Posted May 24, 2023 Will go with 19/12/4. Lots of entries, thanks for entering. Edit at your pleasure until I post a notice of final call for forecasts around June 1st to 3rd depending on situation. If I have not posted the notice, I have not copied your forecast (have been reading them). So no need to post a notice of edit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 15/6/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 29, 2023 Share Posted May 29, 2023 10/5/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 30, 2023 Author Share Posted May 30, 2023 Contest deadline extended to June 4th end of day (06z June 5, 2023). Contest open to members of UK forum Net-weather and Irish weather forum on boards.ie, on separate entry portals (I will list any forecasts submitted here). Same deadlines. National hurricane center says 12-17, 5-9 and 1-4, or 14.5/7.0/2.5 so that will enter contest as "NOAA median" although UK Met Office says 20/11/5. CSU is predicting 13/6/2 and TWC 15/7/3. I will score all of them but ranks will not affect your contest ranks. Edit any forecast already placed in the thread without notice needed, as I will construct a table of entries from what I see on 5th of June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 13/7/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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