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Summer-Fall 2023 Observations


John1122
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The fire In Anderson Co near the Campbell Co line… 500 acres and growing

acd45fb50e3d7c187a1bd37f4aa45090.jpg


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They only about 48 hours to get ahold of these fires. Wednesday into Thursday, wind gusts up to 25 mph start in the valley. I’m assuming it would be at least that in the fire areas. Even 10-15mph would keep the fires moving than the forestry service can handle.


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2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:


They only about 48 hours to get ahold of these fires. Wednesday into Thursday, wind gusts up to 25 mph start in the valley. I’m assuming it would be at least that in the fire areas. Even 10-15mph would keep the fires moving than the forestry service can handle.


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It's burning towards Cross Mountain. Hopefully it doesn't get there. This is a small foothill/ridge that sits in front of it. Cross Mountain has a 2700 foot elevation gain back behind that area and it does it quickly. It's almost completely vertical. Every 600 feet in elevation there's old strip pit roads cut around the mountain that are usually the only breaks.  I'd guess the winds above 3000 feet will be 10+mph higher and the fire makes wind too. 

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Yeah @fountainguy97 that's pillars from auroa. Twitter was lit up with debate. Does that count? I say anything cool counts at being cool!

Canada has true aurora with the green curtains dancing etc. I inferred from Twitter and a Discord server nothing naked eye vis in the South. Probably true but your wx cam didn't have to dig hard. That's not a real long exposure?

If it was naked eye visible, I'm going to.. Book reservations to Alaska!

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...ELEVATED FIRE RISK WEDNESDAY DUE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

Ongoing drought conditions, combined with breezy southerly winds
and low relative humidity values will lead to an elevated fire
risk on Wednesday, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.
Relative humidity values will drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s,
but the bigger concern will be with respect to winds. By the
afternoon, winds will be sustained at 10 to 20 mph at a minimum
with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. Winds will be strongest in
the higher elevations.

A bit nervous about tomorrow in my area. Hopefully won't have a fire pop up, but tomorrow is probably the most favorable fire day since the Wears Valley fires.

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It's burning towards Cross Mountain. Hopefully it doesn't get there. This is a small foothill/ridge that sits in front of it. Cross Mountain has a 2700 foot elevation gain back behind that area and it does it quickly. It's almost completely vertical. Every 600 feet in elevation there's old strip pit roads cut around the mountain that are usually the only breaks.  I'd guess the winds above 3000 feet will be 10+mph higher and the fire makes wind too. 

Any updates?


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Unfortunately, it’s not looking good for us to receive much rainfall today. Just looking at radar, it seems what moisture there was has moved out of the area and the other appears like it will miss us to the south. For my area, the road is not even wet. Just had a few sprinkles here. I was hopeful when I read MRX forecast discussion this morning of up to 1/3-1/2in for the northern half of the area, but that doesn’t appear to be the outcome. It appears like it will take a major system (just like it always does) to move in from the gulf to get us a “normal” rainfall. Until we can get that, these fronts just don’t have what it takes to produce rainfall in our increasingly dessert like area.

Ended up with only a trace of rain. 0.00in in the gauge.

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The Tweed fire near the Cocke County/Greene County line is showing up pretty good on satellite this evening.  Hopefully they can make some progress with that fire in the short term. Wind might become more of an issue for that area by midweek as a southeasterly flow gets established over the mountains. It shouldn't be a significant wind event (the 850mb flow is pretty weak) but it could create some breezy/windy conditions. That area isn't as bad as Camp Creek, but it still gets some significant downslope enhancement with southeasterly flow. You can see signs of the potential enhancement over that specific area on model output.  Screenshot_20231112_180758_Chrome.thumb.jpg.7309fb146bac4c79c5b1ffc41ac2a352.jpg

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Actually had some sprinkles and a patch or two or light rain pass through here a little bit ago. I ran into what would almost be called a shower when I took my son to basketball practice (6 AM-7:30 practice everyday ughh) this morning. MRX mentioned they thought it was Virga but apparently not it some places. Maybe moisture return is a little better than expected? Maybe it could help out for tomorrow?

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