Quincy Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 It looks like a robust severe threat may evolve Wednesday and Thursday, focused on the Central Plains, as a trough ejects from the Four Corners region toward the central states. Given the forecast surface evolution, the favored region for severe activity focuses on northeastern Colorado and vicinity on Wednesday. Lee cyclogenesis, mesoscale forcing, upslope flow, sufficient destabilization and favorable wind fields suggest there may be a threat of large to very large hail and isolated tornadoes. As the surface low pivots toward South Dakota, additional severe storms are possible on Thursday around the north-central Plains. Isolated activity farther south along the dryline could also develop. It’s a few days out, so details are still TBD, but at this point it looks like a noteworthy setup. Considering the pattern turns ugly this weekend into next week, this may be one of the last bigger events until we get into late May. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Looks like Minnesota and Iowa are in play for Friday. Gotta wait another couple of runs to see. Wouldn't be surprise to see a Day4 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 9, 2023 Author Share Posted May 9, 2023 Quick update: Added Friday to this thread, as parts of the region may be impacted by additional severe thunderstorms. Thursday has also trended a bit farther south, much of the severe threat may remain over Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 10, 2023 Author Share Posted May 10, 2023 Day 1 Enhanced Risk from northeastern Colorado toward the CO/KS/NE border area. Driven by significant hail potential and 10% tornado risk via SPC. I tend to think the tornado risk may not be as apparent, at least not with westward extent across Colorado, but we’ll see. CAMs have not showed much of a consistent signal out that way and right now there’s high pressure and cloudiness lingering. My gut says northwestern Kansas has a somewhat better shot at tornadoes, given higher quality moisture, proximity to a frontal boundary (likely nudging north as a warm front later today). The caveat is that storm modes may be quite messy. Will follow up in a bit for tomorrow with the upcoming Day 2 Outlook from SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 That escalated quickly for tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 10, 2023 Author Share Posted May 10, 2023 SPC has upgraded parts of Kansas and Oklahoma to an Enhanced Risk tomorrow. This includes a significant tornado delineation from south-central Kansas into central Oklahoma. The greatest risk for scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms appears to be across the western half of Kansas. A more isolated risk is anticipated farther south, but any storms that can initiate could be quite intense. Particularly across the western half of Oklahoma. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 36 minutes ago, Quincy said: SPC has upgraded parts of Kansas and Oklahoma to an Enhanced Risk tomorrow. This includes a significant tornado delineation from south-central Kansas into central Oklahoma. The greatest risk for scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms appears to be across the western half of Kansas. A more isolated risk is anticipated farther south, but any storms that can initiate could be quite intense. Particularly across the western half of Oklahoma. Seems to be plenty of these this season that escalate pretty quickly over a 1-2 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 10, 2023 Author Share Posted May 10, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 11, 2023 Author Share Posted May 11, 2023 A complex setup today across Oklahoma. Arcs/bands of severe storms seem most probable across western to central Kansas today. Threat becomes more conditional to the south. Some additional thoughts in this thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 Will be interesting to watch convective trends for DFW the next few hours. The cap has completely eroded and pretty aggressive moisture advection is underway, but the better forcing is well to the NW. That said, some fairly modest convergence exists along the dry line and it's beginning to trigger some convection right now around Stephenville (not projected by the CAMS). Will also have to see what happens with the outflow boundaries from convection upstram across Southern OK, which could also act as triggers. I did notice the marginal risk area was expanded pretty far SE in the last update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 initiation N and E of Wichita Falls. Looking at spotter net and there's a TON of chasers out there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 32 minutes ago, ICEHOCEY77 said: initiation N and E of Wichita Falls. Looking at spotter net and there's a TON of chasers out there right now. Reed Timmer in the Dominator is on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 Nice looking supercell NE of Wichita Falls. Starting to form a hook. Probably be tornado warned in the next 5-10 minutes I would bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cincy.wx Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 1 hour ago, ICEHOCEY77 said: Nice looking supercell NE of Wichita Falls. Starting to form a hook. Probably be tornado warned in the next 5-10 minutes I would bet. It produces wall clouds, but refuses to produce for Timmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 Newcastle, Bridge Creek and... Moore looking to possibly get hit yet again. Brief tornado already reported. Typical May in Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 I believe this was a confirmed brief tornado in the rain at Tuttle/Bridge Creek. It did not necessarily look like it was at a hook echo/RFD at all. Maybe you could use your imagination to see a hook echo in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 Tornado briefly on the ground SW of Newcastle via Ch. 6 live stream https://www.facebook.com/watch/live?ref=watch_permalink&v=1140074244053960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 Looks like its a TOG per the met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 news9 chaser just got hit by it, weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 If at least one of these storms can manage to turn supercellular, I wonder if it could become a concern for the DFW metro? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 this was the Newcastle area tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 Confirmed TOG near Cole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 Tornado confirmed in Noble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 Cole-Goldsby Oklahoma tornado debris signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 Never seen a 3 county Tornado Watch before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 Today will be more of a wet microburst setup. Shear and forcing both look pretty mediocre, but the atmosphere seems primed for precip loading with the temperature spread expected at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 Reed with a large tornado on the ground in NE. Edit: I didn’t know they were in the dominator, they just took a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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