Cold +PNA, could be the start of more +PNA's.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Medium range models show a +PNA of some significance occurring around May 12. 

https://ibb.co/CssytcK

I had noticed constant cold in Russia 12 months ago, and this has continued more often than not for the last 12-months. Roll forward research shows that cold, or colder than normal, Russia evens out to more +PNA conditions in the following months(9-12 months).

 

We also continue to run this ridiculous NAO-PNA correlation (+NAO, happens or trends with more +PNA's, -NAO happens or trends with more trending -PNA's.) 

https://ibb.co/YZ0sccj 

That will hold until further notice. (I say that because in my observation it has a EC, and imo population- could be wrong, correlation). Let the clouds grow high up in the atmosphere

[CAPE]

There are degrees of -PNA. Slightly negative to neutral PNA with a -NAO, esp in a Nino with a STJ present, should still be a good pattern. It better be if we still want snow here.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There are degrees of -PNA. Slightly negative to neutral PNA with a -NAO, esp in a Nino with a STJ present, should still be a good pattern. It better be if we still want snow here.

I feel like we had that a lot in Feb-March. In some months of the Winter NAO correlations with drier conditions 0.5/1, so we actually had a rare conditions of much wetter than normal conditions during -NAO last winter. 

[CAPE]

36 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I feel like we had that a lot in Feb-March. In some months of the Winter NAO correlations with drier conditions 0.5/1, so we actually had a rare conditions of much wetter than normal conditions during -NAO last winter. 

Overwhelmingly -PNA overall though, in a Nina. We had very transient periods of "favorable" Pac with the -NAO, but it didn't work out.

-NAO during a Nino (with an actual STJ) gives different outcomes than in a Nina when the PNA is negative.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Overwhelmingly -PNA overall though, in a Nina. We had very transient periods of "favorable" Pac with the -NAO, but it didn't work out.

-NAO during a Nino (with an actual STJ) gives different outcomes than in a Nina when the PNA is negative.

Right. I think we will see more +PNA, but it gives question as to chicken and eggs, if the cold anomalies started happening in Russia April 2022, through May 2023. About 13 months of some anomalous cold there, correlates to +PNA down the line, but now El Nino appears... chicken or egg. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Now on MR models it's short lived, and looking to give way to -PNA by D15... The Russia correlation is about 0.20 to +PNA +time. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Looks kind of pathetic now. 

https://ibb.co/WtRDxQx

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Another nice +PNA hitting here shortly. If we continue this through July (which it might because ENSO subsurface is warming in the west), it will be the 2nd year in a row the warm season has gone +PNA, and that is something to consider going into a Winter that has had 7 straight -PNA's.