cheese007 Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 Looks like another late week hail risk for TX and OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 3, 2023 Share Posted May 3, 2023 Hatched hail for the Hill Country down to the Mexican border. Waiting for the 12Z CAMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 Mixed signals on today… On one hand, early day convection has chewed away at much of the thermodynamic environment across Oklahoma and effectively, points north. Relatively weak lapse rates, modest boundary layer moisture and limited air mass recovery is expected. With that said, an effective warm front is draped near or just south of the Red River. Lapse rates are steeper out in West Texas and trends suggest there will be moderate destabilization taking place in the Northwest Texas vicinity through the day. This combined with enhancement of upper level flow and backing of low level winds suggest there could be some supercell potential, possibly tornadic, this afternoon. I’d guess somewhere near the Red River. Central to South Texas looks like a more obviously favored area for severe and locally significant severe (very large hail). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 Can't help but chuckle at the SPC They've been bouncing Dallas in and out of the Slight Risk area with every new outlook. Can't make up their minds, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 There are some days where it pays to hold fast to your preconceived target area (like 3/31 for me, was planning to go to SE IA after getting off work at noon but overnight/morning of IL started to look much better according to CAMS which was tempting due to depicted later initation/slower upscale growth, would have cost me Keota that is in my avatar had I bit, as those simulated sups east of the MS formed but by and large did not produce photogenic ). Today is not one of those days. So much for OK/KS border. OK/TX border it is, for those chasing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 Mesoscale Discussion 0673 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu May 04 2023 Areas affected...northwest TX...far southwest OK Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 041843Z - 042045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Convective initiation will probably occur near the dryline/outflow intersection prior to 3pm. A tornado watch is being considered for portions of northwest TX and immediately adjacent parts of southwest OK. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a towering cumulus field centered on Garza County, TX near a dryline bulge. Surface analysis indicates a messy placement of boundaries across northwest TX and southwest OK. The aforementioned dryline extends southwest from near the Caprock into the Pecos Valley. An outflow boundary extends from the southeast TX Panhandle arching southeast into northwest TX to the south of the Red River, while a synoptic warm front/composite boundary extends eastward near the Red River. Surface temperatures north of the outflow/warm front are in the 60s with 70s nestled in between the warm front and outflow boundary. To the south of the outflow boundary, temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s in locations void of denser mid to high-level cloud cover. Surface dewpoints are in the lower 60s east of the dryline from near San Angelo to north of Abilene. Additional heating will occur as the cirrus shield over western north TX shifts east and upwards of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by mid afternoon. Effective shear will support a supercellular mode. Large to very large hail (diameters 1 to 2.5 inches) and a tornado are possible with storms that manage to mature and optimally interact in the vicinity of the west-east oriented low-level boundaries. ..Smith/Thompson.. 05/04/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 A little surprised how narrow (N-S) the Tornado Watch is, but lines up with the latest HRRR helicity track map. 18z 3km NAM shows more development south, near and SE of a dryline bulge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 Confirmed TOG in Brown County, TX Tornado Warning National Weather Service San Angelo TX 652 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023 The National Weather Service in San Angelo has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Brown County in west central Texas... * Until 715 PM CDT. * At 652 PM CDT, a tornado producing storm was located near May, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Brown County, including the following locations... Owens. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3181 9898 3199 9903 3202 9889 3186 9877 3184 9877 TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 258DEG 32KT 3192 9892 TORNADO...OBSERVED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 NWS Fort Worth @NWSFortWorth For the weather enthusiasts. Evening balloon shows a strong cap over Ft. Worth. This will weaken some but storms will struggle a bit between the two ongoing clusters. Still favorable for large hail but coverage will be scattered. #txwx #dfwwx #ctxwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 Tornado Warned storm is heading towards Thackerville where Winstar casino is located Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 Concerning...Tornado Watch 185... Valid 050013Z - 050145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 185 continues. SUMMARY...A cluster of supercells should continue eastward for a few more hours with a risk for hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes towards the eastern edge of WW185. DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, a cluster of supercells in North TX has shown signs of intensification with higher reflectively and deeper MESH cores noted from regional radar analysis. Additional storm development/clustering has also been observed, suggesting low-level jet intensification is ongoing. 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should continue to support robust updrafts toward sunset as storms move eastward at around 25 kt. Current HRRR forecasts and observational trends suggest some upscale growth is possible but the storm mode is expected to remain primarily supercellular given 40-45 kt of effective shear. Large hail will remain possible with these storms given the supercell mode and steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km. Some increase in low-level shear may also support a couple of tornadoes across portions of North TX as backed low-level flow increases and the low-level jet intensifies. Given that storms are approaching the eastern edge of WW185, a new watch or a local extension may be needed across portions of north TX and far southern OK in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 Godzilla about to gobble up DFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 3 km NAM, DFW Metroplex, 6 pm as intense cells form in the area. Shear is meh, but look at how fat the CAPE is. I wonder if DFW gets into the 10% hatched hail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 27 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 3 km NAM, DFW Metroplex, 6 pm as intense cells form in the area. Shear is meh, but look at how fat the CAPE is. I wonder if DFW gets into the 10% hatched hail. I haven't really invested much time/energy into this marginal setup, but seeing that sounding and what you say about the 3km NAM's depiction... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 Also, IMO, the date on this thread should be extended through 5/8 (at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 Word on the street is the HRRR doesn't look too shabby either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 10pm. It includes all of DFW and the I-35 corridor from the OK border to Austin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 5, 2023 Author Share Posted May 5, 2023 Looks like Waco area is getting hit hard with hail again with little of note in DFW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 6, 2023 Author Share Posted May 6, 2023 Updated to include the slight and higher risks through the 8th. Got a wind and hail driven ENH including DFW for today (sig hatched as well) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Updated to include the slight and higher risks through the 8th. Got a wind and hail driven ENH including DFW for today (sig hatched as well) 3rd time's the charm, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 Heavy rain, looking at 12Z and 15Z HRRR, may be a threat DFW area, although WPC Day 1 is Marginal. Even as a blob with little shear, dry adiabatic (9.1C/Kg) lapse rates 850-500mb per 3 km NAM, big hail has to be a possibility. Near 1500 J/Kg downcape. HRRR lapse rates not quite as impressive, but shear is higher. Ferris, TX, just ahead of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 After full morning sunshine, what's left of the low cloud field from the Hill Country has moved into DFW and slowed down the rise in temps. We'll see how quickly it mixes out entirely and what impacts that has on destabilization, unlike yesterday where there was virtually no cloud obstruction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 Some day 2 changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 53 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Heavy rain, looking at 12Z and 15Z HRRR, may be a threat DFW area, although WPC Day 1 is Marginal. Even as a blob with little shear, dry adiabatic (9.1C/Kg) lapse rates 850-500mb per 3 km NAM, big hail has to be a possibility. Near 1500 J/Kg downcape. HRRR lapse rates not quite as impressive, but shear is higher. Ferris, TX, just ahead of the storms. FWD did add heavy rain wording to the grids. Damaging straight lines winds could be a greater threat today versus the past 2 days with much more precip loading and what looks to be a weak shortwave moving through (cold pool potential). Hi-Res models do look more bullish for the Metroplex than they did Thursday and Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 Here is a cluster of storms developing now in the enhanced risk section in Texas (30% hail and wind). They look like they are all developing into supercells. The 0-6km shear of 30 kt means the really should be struggling to develop into supercells, but the 300mb wind is a pretty reasonable 50 kt. It already looks like we could be seeing dozens of hail reports in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 637 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTY... At 637 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Byrds, moving northeast at 10 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Byrds around 640 PM CDT. May around 715 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 Derek Smith is close to the Tor warn storm https://livestormchasing.com/map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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