Cfa Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 78/44 split here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 64degs.(55/73) or Normal. Month to date is 62.1[+1.0]. Should be 62.8[+0.6] by the 24th. Reached 76 here yesterday. Today: 75-80, wind w. to s., variable clouds, 57 tomorrow AM. 58*(68%RH) at 7am. 60* at 8am. 62* at 9am. 65* at 11am. 68* at Noon. 70* at 1pm. 72* at 1:30pm. Reached 79* at 5:30pm. 74* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Overall tremendous stretch of weather the next 9 days (outside Sat/ pat of Sun). Today the warmest of the bunch with low to perhaps a mid 80s readings. Cooler Wed and Thu (5/18) with most places below 70 and 40s overnight perhaps some 30s inland. Fri (5/19) back to the 70s, ahead of the next system over the weekend. Next shot of meaningful rain comes during the weekend, still some details on heaviest rains, which could stay east. Beyond there drier next week and warming towards md week Wed (5/24). Ridging to build in by Memorial day, but some hints of cutoff under the ridge per the gfs. Will need to see but looking a bit more humid southerly / pnshore-ish later next week into Memorial day weekend.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Records: Highs: EWR: 92 (1951) NYC: 90 (1951) LGA: 90 (1951) Lows: EWR: 40 (2016) NYC: 42 (1878) LGA: 41 (1983) Historical: 1874 - The Mill Creek disaster occurred west of Northhampton MA. Dam slippage resulted in a flash flood which claimed 143 lives, and caused a million dollars property damage. (David Ludlum) 1924 - The temperature at Blitzen OR soared to 108 degrees to set a state record for the month of May. The record was later tied at Pelton Dam on the 31st of May in 1986. (The Weather Channel) 1952 - High winds in the Wasatch Canyon of Utah struck Ogden and Brigham City. Winds at Hill Air Force Base gusted to 92 mph. (The Weather Channel) 1983: An unyielding spring storm dumped heavy snow across the Front Range in Colorado. High winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 55 mph produced blizzard conditions at times. The Foothills received 1 to 2 feet of snow with 4 to 12 inches along the Foothills. Blowing snow whipped the snow into drifts several feet deep closing schools and highways. Power outages occurred; with 20 square miles of Denver blacked out. Hundreds of passengers were stranded as only half of the runways were open at Stapleton International Airport. The high temperature at Denver the next day of just 40° set a record low maximum. Much of the snow melted on the 18th as temperatures rebounded into the middle and upper 50s causing widespread street flooding. 1987 - It was a summer-like day as thunderstorms abounded across the nation. Thunderstorms in Texas drenched Guadelupe County with more than three inches of rain resulting in flash flooding. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from Florida to New York State. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the north central U.S. Havre, MT, reported a record high of 95 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in the south central U.S. Thunderstorms spawned twenty tornadoes, and there were 180 reports of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado at Cleburne, TX, caused 30 million dollars damage. A violent (F-4) tornado touched down near Brackettville, TX, and a strong (F-3) tornado killed one person and injured 28 others at Jarrell, TX. Thunderstorms also produced softball size hail at Shamrock, TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas to the Upper Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms spawned seventeen tornadoes, including a twister which killed one person and injured another north of Corning, AR. There were 128 reports of large hail or damaging winds. Strong thunderstorm winds killed one person and injured six others at Folsomville, IN, and injured another five persons in southeastern Hardin County KY. In Arkansas, baseball size hail was reported near Fouke and near El Dorado. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Canadian forest fires still raging. Smoke plume still widespread. North of our area today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Just a namazing day 75/ 39 bright sunshine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Cmc pretty wet Saturday esp city east. Gfs much further east and keeps much of the area dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 16, 2023 Author Share Posted May 16, 2023 49 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Cmc pretty wet Saturday esp city east. Gfs much further east and keeps much of the area dry Models flopping all over the place with this one-CMC went from driest to wettest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 A "HW Ending" for all---during last week of the month??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 As I said yesterday (and latest guidance has done little to change my mind) my expectations are low for beneficial rains this weekend. Especially from the city westward. The weekend threat is the only game in town. If we miss meaningful rain this weekend looks as though we have to wait until around or after the Memorial Day weekend. Have not looked at ensemble data last day or so but there was some decent support a few days back for a wetter end to the month. Hope so. Top soils are very dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 16, 2023 Author Share Posted May 16, 2023 52 minutes ago, MANDA said: As I said yesterday (and latest guidance has done little to change my mind) my expectations are low for beneficial rains this weekend. Especially from the city westward. The weekend threat is the only game in town. If we miss meaningful rain this weekend looks as though we have to wait until around or after the Memorial Day weekend. Have not looked at ensemble data last day or so but there was some decent support a few days back for a wetter end to the month. Hope so. Top soils are very dry. Yep...it's really dried out fast here-low humidity and high sun angle doing the dirty work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 lovely breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 A cooler air mass is now moving into the region. Fair but unseasonably cool conditions will prevail through the remainder of the week. Readings will warm during the weekend, but some rain is possible. Some of the guidance suggests that temperatures could return to the 80s to close the month. Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Nevertheless, the guidance has persistently suggested that the month will end with a somewhat warmer than normal average. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was -20.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.646 today. On May 14 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.188 (RMM). The May 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.206 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.4° (0.2° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 5/16 EWR: 83 BLM: 82 LGA: 81 New Brnswck: 80 PHL: 80 NYC: 79 TEB: 79 ACY: 79 TTN: 78 JFK: 78 ISP: 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 To rain or not to rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 If GFS is correct we'd have record low rainfall this month heading into summer Thats not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 Nice and chilly this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 58 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice and chilly this morning Hoodie time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 64degs.(54/73) or -1. Month to date is 62.5[+1.3]. Should be 63.0[+0.6] by the 25th. Reached 79 here yesterday. Today: 62-66, wind nw.-breezy, p. sunny, 47 tomorrow AM. 59*(48%RH) here at 7am. 57* at 7:30am. 55* at 8:30am. 59* at Noon. 61* at 2pm. 64*(26%RH) at 4pm. 66*(25%RH) at 5pm. No Rain and First HW: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 32 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 64degs.(54/73) or -1. Month to date is 62.5[+1.3]. Should be 63.0[+0.6] by the 25th. Reached 79 here yesterday. Today: 62-66, wind nw.-breezy, p. sunny, 47 tomorrow AM. 59*(48%RH) here at 7am. 57* at 7:30am. No Rain and First HW: Horrible if true 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Horrible if true The euro just came in very wet so we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 Still a nasty smoke plume ongoing from Canadian forest fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 17, 2023 Author Share Posted May 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: The euro just came in very wet so we'll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 17, 2023 Author Share Posted May 17, 2023 Still raining at end of run 90 hrs....also NE forum noted ensembles are wet too. 12z NAM on the other hand is not wet at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Still raining at end of run 90 hrs....also NE forum noted ensembles are wet too. 12z NAM on the other hand is not wet at all. Who the f*ck knows 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 17, 2023 Author Share Posted May 17, 2023 20 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Who the f*ck knows Model mayhem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 Rgem coming in fairly wet through Saturday evening and still raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 it feels like a late october day fall is just around the corner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: If GFS is correct we'd have record low rainfall this month heading into summer Thats not good when was the last good summer for gardening? moderate temps and consistent rainfall... 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 17, 2023 Author Share Posted May 17, 2023 36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Rgem coming in fairly wet through Saturday evening and still raining Way west with the rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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