May 2023

[nycwinter]

48 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uh? It's warm

when i posted it was 59 degrees.. northeast breeze low humidity chilly tomorrow morning will be even cooler another hoodie day..

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 93 (2000)
NYC: 94 (1979)
LGA: 92 (2000)

Lwos:

 

EWR: 33 (1947)
NYC: 34 (2020)
LGA: 36 (2020)

 

Historical:

1918: An F4 tornado moved across Floyd, Chickasaw, and Winneshiek Counties in northeast Iowa from two miles north of Pearl Rock to Calmar. Two people died east of Calmar when the tornado was a mile wide. Losses in and near Calmar totaled $250,000. Overall, this tornado killed seven people and injured 15 others.

 

1933: An estimated F4 tornado moved through Monroe, Cumberland, and Russell Counties in Kentucky along a 60-mile path. The town of Tompkinsville, KY was the hardest hit with 18 people killed. Overall, 36 people lost their lives.

1966 - Record snows fell in the northeastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania, including 3.1 inches at Pittsburgh PA and 5.4 inches at Youngstown OH. Snow also extended across parts of New York State, with eight inches reported in the southern Adirondacks. (The Weather Channel)

1977 - A late season snowstorm hit parts of Pennsylvania, New York State, and southern and central New England. Heavier snowfall totals included 27 inches at Slide Mountain NY and 20 inches at Norwalk CT. At Boston it was the first May snow in 107 years of records. The heavy wet snow caused extensive damage to trees and power lines. The homes of half a million persons were without power following the storm. (9th-10th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1985 - Lightning struck some trees about 150 yards away from a home in Alabama, and followed the driveway to the home. The charge went through the house and burned all the electrical outlets, ruined appliances, and blasted a hole in the concrete floor of the basement. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Unseasonably warm weather spread from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Mississippi Valley. Fifteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. It was the fourth day of record warmth for Eugene OR and Salem OR. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A massive cyclone in the central U.S. produced severe thunderstorms from eastern Texas to the Upper Ohio Valley. A strong (F-3) tornado ripped through Middleboro KY causing more than 22 million dollars damage. Thunderstorms in east central Texas produced hail three and a half inches in diameter at Groesbeck, and near Fairfield. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front in the south central U.S. produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 62 mph at Mira LA, and during the morning hours drenched Stuttgart AR with five inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the central U.S. during the evening hours, mainly from southeastern Missouri to southwestern Indiana. Severe thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes, including two strong (F-2) tornadoes in southern Illinois. Strong thunderstorm winds gusted to 85 mph at Orient IL, and to 100 mph at West Salem. Thunderstorms drenched northeastern Illinois with up to 4.50 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1995: An F3 tornado produced $10 million in damages along its 40-mile path across central Illinois. The tornado caused significant damage in Cantrall where three homes were destroyed, 10 had significant damage, and 11 had minor damage. The roof and interior of a grade school suffered extensive damage. The tornado passed about 2 miles southeast of the new NWS Office in Lincoln, Illinois.

[donsutherland1]

Milder air will begin to return tomorrow. Temperatures will remain generally above normal through the coming weekend and perhaps longer. The duration and magnitude of this overall warm period could determine the overall monthly temperature anomaly.

The Pacific Northwest could see near record to record heat develop in parts of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia during the weekend.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Whether that will be the case this year remains to be seen. For now, the outcome is far too close to call with the sensitivity analysis showing a almost a "coin toss" outcome. However, some of the more recent guidance has begun to tilt toward a warmer outcome. Uncertainty remains high for second half of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around May 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -10.48 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.122 today.

On May 7 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.953 (RMM). The May 6-adjusted amplitude was 2.209 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.3° (0.1° above normal).

 

[LoboLeader1]

41 here as of 5AM, topped out at 66 yesterday.

[psv88]

39 this Am, 61 now

[MANDA]

Smoke plume from the Canadian wildfires has generally shifted southward last 24-36 hours.  Sky may be hazy at times today as smoke from those fires impinges on our area.

 

Nice April summary for NJ:

https://www.njweather.org/content/odd-one-april-2023-recap

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    66degs.(57/75) or +3.

Reached 68 yesterday(midnight) and 66 daytime.

Today:     70-74, wind w., m. sunny, 57 tomorrow AM.

54*(70%RH) here at 7am.      56* at 8am.      60* at Noon.     63* at 2pm.

 

[SACRUS]

Don at 39 and now up to a brilliant 67 and sunny.  Warming these next 2 days 70s today. 80s Thu and mid to perhaps upper 80s in the warmer spots.  Sat (5/13) looks to see next shot of rain before drying out Mothers Day (5/14) and much of the stat of the next work week.  Looking relatively dry and near normal overall into the middle of the month.  Beyond no real push of deep departures either way.  Will see if ridging builds back in time for memorial day and end of the month.

 

 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Don at 39 and now up to a brilliant 67 and sunny.  Warming these next 2 days 70s today. 80s Thu and mid to perhaps upper 80s in the warmer spots.  Sat (5/13) looks to see next shot of rain before drying out Mothers Day (5/14) and much of the stat of the next work week.  Looking relatively dry and near normal overall into the middle of the month.  Beyond no real push of deep departures either way.  Will see if ridging builds back in time for memorial day and end of the month.

 

 

Forecast high at ewr now 88 for Friday 

[JustinRP37]

I gotta say I am loving the usually low humidity given how things have been going the past few years. It feels like the desert southwest. Warm days, cold nights. 

[nycwinter]

sun is so warm these days  i wish earth was tidal locked one side facing the sun. the other side in perpetual darkness..

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 93 (1979)
NYC: 94 (1979)
LGA: 91 (1979)

Lows:

EWR: 34 (1947)
NYC: 36 (1966)
LGA: 38 (1966 )

 

Historical:

1880: A tornado estimated to be F4 intensity moved across 20 miles of Scott and Morgan Counties in central Illinois. The tornado touched down near Alsey and moved northeast, passing 8 miles south of Jacksonville. The tornado was strongest in the Pisgah area, where 30 buildings were destroyed. Seven people were killed.

1905 - A deadly tornado hit the town of Snyder, OK, killing 87 persons. The tornado leveled 100 homes in Snyder, and destroyed many others. The large and violent tornado killed a total of 97 persons along its 40 miles path across southwestern Oklahoma. Its roar could reportedly be heard up to twelve miles away. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1953: Four, F4 tornadoes touched down in parts of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. One F4 tornado moved northeast from northeast of Fountain City, Wisconsin to Colburn, Wisconsin. Total damage from this storm was $1 million, and it caused ten injuries.  The second F4 tornado moved from 5 miles southwest of Chester, Iowa to 4 miles northeast of Chatfield, Minnesota. One man was killed as his barn was destroyed one mile southeast of Wykoff. A rural school was leveled 3 miles south of Chatfield as well.  The third F4 tornado moved northeast and passed about 2 miles northwest of St. Charles, Minnesota. Farms were torn up all along the track. An infant was killed, and four other people were injured in a car that was thrown 100 feet. Overall this tornado killed one person and injured 11 people.  The final F4 tornado moved across Rusk, Price, and Taylor counties in Wisconsin. Over $150,000 worth of damage resulted. An F3 tornado moved northeast across Clayton County, Iowa. At least 60 head of cattle were killed. A farmer was carried 700 feet but suffered only minor injuries.

1966 - Morning lows of 21 degrees at Bloomington-Normal and Aurora, IL, established a state record for the month of May. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Summer-like "Father's Day" type weather prevailed in the north central and western U.S. for "Mother's Day", as seventeen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Jamestown ND soared to a record high of 96 degrees. Thunderstorms along the Central Gulf Coast deluged Lillian AL with 14.5 inches of rain, and nearby Perdido Key FL with 12.8 inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced hail and high winds over the Atlantic Coast Region and the Gulf Coast States marking the end of a five day episode of severe weather associated with a cyclone tracking out of the Great Basin into southeastern Canada. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front crossing the Plateau Region produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Butte MT, and gusts to 77 mph at Choteau MT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A spring storm produced heavy snow in Upper Michigan and eastern Wiscosin. Totals ranged up to 12 inches at Marquette MI, with eight inches reported at Muskego WI and Hartford WI. The heavy wet snow, and winds gusting to 35 mph, damaged or destroyed thousands of trees, and downed numerous power lines. Total damage from the storm was more than four million dollars. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2010: On this day, Oklahoma experienced its largest tornado outbreak since May 3, 1999. Fifty-five twisters tore through the state, including two rated EF4. The EF4 storms took three lives and injured 81 people. Ironically, both EF4 tornadoes struck Norman, Oklahoma, home of the Storm Prediction Center and the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Fourteen additional tornadoes hit Oklahoma during May 11-13. The May 10 disaster racked up insured property losses of $2 billion.

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

sun is so warm these days  i wish earth was tidal locked one side facing the sun. the other side in perpetual darkness..

So who gets shafted? 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

sun is so warm these days  i wish earth was tidal locked one side facing the sun. the other side in perpetual darkness..

Pressure gradients… I have no idea how to respond to this as it would take 100,000 words. Let’s just say, I know your not serious. 
Pretty much perfect weather currently on the Ivy League uws.

[donsutherland1]

Under sunny skies, tomorrow will see temperatures rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Temperatures will remain generally above normal through the coming weekend and perhaps longer. The duration and magnitude of this overall warm period could determine the overall monthly temperature anomaly.

The Pacific Northwest could see near record to record heat develop in parts of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia during the weekend.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Whether that will be the case this year remains to be seen. For now, the outcome is far too close to call with the sensitivity analysis showing a almost a "coin toss" outcome. However, some of the more recent guidance has begun to tilt toward a warmer outcome. Uncertainty remains high for second half of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around May 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -16.68 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.042 today.

On May 8 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.778 (RMM). The May 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.955 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.4° (0.2° above normal).

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    67degs.(58/77) or +4.

Month to date is    58.4[-2.0].       Should be 62.2[+0.7] by the 19th.

Reached 64 here yesterday at 4pm.

Today:    77-82, wind w., m. sunny, 63 tomorrow AM.

57*(60%RH) here at 7am{ was 56 at 6am}.      60* at 8am.     62* at 9am.      67* at Noon.     69* at 12:30pm.      70* at 1pm.     75* at 2pm.       Crashed to 67* at 3pm.       69* at 4pm.      75* at 5pm.      80* at 5:30pm.     83* at 6pm.

BN after mid-month and hint of warm finish.      Possible storms at end of month some say:

[SACRUS]

 

Up to 61 and first of a few days in the 80s today.  Mid / upper 80s Fri (5/12) with outside shot at a 90 in the warmer spots but dont think we'll get there.  Sat (5/13) perhaps some showers but brunt of steadier light rains/rain stays into C/S NJ and south of there.  Looks cloudy but warm still.  By Mothers Day (5/14) starts another great stretch of mainly dry/ seasonal weather.  Think we see a couple of cooler days  Wed (5/17).  perhaps remaining in the 60s.  A bit warmer Thu (5/18) - oth days look to see partly sunny conditions so warm in the sun. 

Overall looking near normal with no strong departures lingering.  In the way beyond we';; see if the WC ridge swaps east by Memorial day weekend.

 

[bluewave]

We could have used the upcoming record +PNA 590 DM ridge last winter.

[MANDA]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We could have used the upcoming record +PNA 590 DM ridge last winter.

Should keep temperatures more or less in check and pattern dry on NW flow.

[FPizz]

 

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Should keep temperatures more or less in check and pattern dry on NW flow.

Maybe one last freeze for some interior spots.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Should keep temperatures more or less in check and pattern dry on NW flow.

Let's hope.   Want to avoid cutoff low hell...

[winterwx21]

Beautiful weather, but the ground is very dry again. Obviously we needed a drying out period after that heavy rain a couple weeks ago, but now it's going to be too dry. The rain is going to miss us to the south on saturday and next week looks dry. A lot of watering will be needed. 

[MANDA]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Beautiful weather, but the ground is very dry again. Obviously we needed a drying out period after that heavy rain a couple weeks ago, but now it's going to be too dry. The rain is going to miss us to the south on saturday and next week looks dry. A lot of watering will be needed. 

Agree.  On the upside the grass seed I planted is in little danger of being washed away by downpours before it sprouts.  Other than that a little to dry for gardeners.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 93 (1993)
NYC: 92 (1993)
LGA; 96 (1953)

Lows:

 

EWR: 36 (1966)
NYC: 36 (1913)
LGA: 42 (1945)

 

Historical:

1865: A tornado touched down in Philadelphia around 6 PM ET, killing one person and injuring 15 others. There was a considerable destruction of property, with 23 houses blown down, damage to the Reading Railroad depot, with the water tank, carried 150 yards. Fairmont Park was damaged to the amount of $20,000. 

1934: A tremendous dust storm affected the Plains as the Dust Bowl era was in full swing. According to The New York Times, dust "lodged itself in the eyes and throats of weeping and coughing New Yorkers," and even ships some 300 miles offshore sawdust collect on their decks.

1953: A terrifying F5 tornado rips through downtown Waco, Texas, killing 114 people and injuring nearly 600 more. More than 850 homes, 600 businesses, and 2,000 cars are destroyed or severely damaged. Losses have been estimated at $41 million. The tornado is the deadliest in Texas history and the tenth deadliest in the US. 

1953 - A tornado hit Waco, TX, killing 114 persons and burying some downtown streets under five feet of fallen bricks. (The Weather Channel)

1966 - The 1.6 inch snow at Chicago, IL, was their latest measurable snow of record. Previously the record was 3.7 inches on the 1st and 2nd of May set in 1940. (The Weather Channel)

1970 - A very powerful tornado struck the city of Lubbock, TX, killing 26 persons, injuring more than 500 others, and causing 135 million dollars damage. It was the most destructive tornado of record up until that time, and came on the 17th anniversary of the twister which struck Waco TX killing 114 persons. A second tornado killed two others persons in Lubbock, and the two tornadoes damaged or destroyed nearly a quarter of the city. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Early morning thunderstorms produced up to four inches of rain in southern Texas, with flooding reported from Maverick County to Eagle Pass. Evening thunderstorms in northern Illinois produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. Reno, NV, reported a record high of 89 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in the High Plains Region. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 71 mph at Gillette WY, and baseball size hail was reported at Pecos TX and Fort Stockton TX. Fort Stockton TX was deluged with 7.75 inches of rain in less than two hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Unseasonably cold weather followed in the wake of a spring storm in the north central U.S. Seven cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Madison WI with a reading of 29 degrees. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Kansas, Oklahoma and the northern half of Texas. Severe thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Texas, and produced high winds which overturned four mobile homes northwest of Abilene TX injuring ten persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - Strong thunderstorms affected parts of the U.S. Great Plains. In the Hastings, Nebraska area, significant severe weather occurred, including very large hail, damaging winds and widespread flooding. Radar estimated rainfall accumulation locally exceeded 10 inches.

[lee59]

After a chilly start of 46 degrees, shot up 32 degrees to 78 this afternoon.

[Santa Claus]

On 5/10/2023 at 4:26 PM, gravitylover said:

So who gets shafted? 

inevitably someone on this forum

[Santa Claus]

my allergies started going absolutely bonkers today idk about anyone else.  nothing this year and today just bam

[Allsnow]

4 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Beautiful weather, but the ground is very dry again. Obviously we needed a drying out period after that heavy rain a couple weeks ago, but now it's going to be too dry. The rain is going to miss us to the south on saturday and next week looks dry. A lot of watering will be needed. 

We need rain again! The ridge is to far east to give us much precipitation 

[forkyfork]

47 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We need rain again! The ridge is to far east to give us much precipitation 

one month's worth in two days and nothing for three weeks after