May 2023

[donsutherland1]

A warming trend is now well underway. The sun-filled weekend will conclude tomorrow with readings topping out in the lower and middle 70s lies ahead. Some areas could see the mercury rise into the upper 70s.

Readings will remain generally above normal through next weekend as the ongoing blocking dissipates and warmer air comes eastward. Tuesday and Wednesday could be somewhat cooler as a small area of cooler air passes through the region. The duration and magnitude of the overall warm period could determine the overall monthly temperature anomaly.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Whether that will be the case this year remains to be seen.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was +16.33 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.001 today.

On May 4 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.455 (RMM). The May 3-adjusted amplitude was 2.476 (RMM).

 

[SACRUS]

5/6

 

Gorgeous day after a miserable week.

 

EWR: 76
TEB: 74
ACY: 73
NYC: 73
New Brnswck:  73
LGA: 73
BLM: 72
ISP: 72
JFK: 72
PHL: 72
TTN: 72
 

[psv88]

73 here 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    67degs.(56/78) or +5.

Reached 71 here yesterday at 4pm.

Today:   72-76, wind w., m. sunny early, clouds late-drizzle, 60 tomorrow AM.

57*(56%RH) at 7am.      59* at 8am.    61* at 9am.       67* at Noon.     69* at 1pm.      70* at 1:30pm.     64*/65* at 3pm.(sea breeze again)    Back up to 69* at 7pm.

[SACRUS]

Low of 44 overnight now up to 61.  Clouds already into CPA, so not sure how much more sun we will get to enjoy today.  Some showers oernighg before clearing and warming and clearing Mon (5/8) with some spots touching near 80 and perhaps a stray 80 in the warmer spots before a brief cool down Tue (5/9).  The period Wed - Sat (5/13) looks warm and relatively dry with some widespread 80s by the end of the work week and start of the weekend.  Next trough looks to push rain through on Mothers Day (5/14) and bring some cooler weather into the start of the following week.  Beyond there looks back and forth with transient troughs but heights elevated into the Rockies.

 

[jconsor]

Important caveat to keep in mind when interpreting GFS/GEFS guidance:
 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 94 (2000)
NYC: 93 (2000)
LGA: 93 (2000)


Lows:

EWR: 38 (1996)
NYC: 37 (1891)
LGA: 40 (1970)

Historical:

 

1840 - A powerful tornado wrecked many boats at the Natchez Landing in Mississippi, then plowed through the city on the bluff. The tornado killed 317 persons, and caused a million dollars damage. The force of the storm caused houses to burst open. The tornado was the most deadly and destructive in early American history. (David Ludlum)

1964 - The temperature at White Mountain 2, located in California, dipped to 15 degrees below zero to set a record for May for the continental U.S. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thirty-one cities in the western U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 93 degrees at Portland OR and San Jose CA were the warmest of record for so early in the season. The high of 92 degrees at Quillayute WA was a record for the month of May. The temperature at Sacramento CA hit 105 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A powerful storm in the north central U.S. produced up to three feet of snow in the Bighorn Mountains of Wyoming and the mountains of south central Montana. Up to five inches of rain drenched central Montana in less than 24 hours, and flash flooding in Wyoming caused a million dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thirty-two cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, and 24 hour snowfall totals of 7.2 inches at Buffalo NY and 10.7 inches at Rochester NY were records for the month of May. While northerly winds ushered unseasonably cold air into the eastern U.S., temperatures warmed rapidly in the Great Plains Region, reaching the 90s in Kansas. The temperature at Manhattan KS soared from a low of 30 degrees to a high of 88 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Gale force winds lashed the northern and central Pacific coast. A wind gust of 52 mph at Eureka CA established a record for the month of May. Strong winds over northeastern Colorado, associated with a fast moving Pacific cold front, gusted to 63 mph at Peetz. Snow developed over the northwest mountains of Wyoming late in the day, and Yellowstone National Park was whitened with 6 to 14 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1993: Serious flooding occurred in central Oklahoma following torrential rain and hail on this date through the 8th. Rainfall amounts on this date were generally around one inch. Oklahoma City, OK then recorded 6.64 inches of rain on the 8th, the third greatest daily rainfall amount ever observed in the city. Extensive flooding resulted, which killed four people, and the fire department had to rescue 183 others. More than 2,000 homes and businesses were damaged or destroyed. Damages were estimated at $8 million. 

[SACRUS]

 

Daylight length 14H 11M roughly equivalent to Aug 5.

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Daylight length 14H 11M roughly equivalent to Aug 5.

Slowly backing ourselves to June 21 then we SLOWLY start going the other way.  Time marches on.

[CIK62]

The key point is that we are entering Solar Summer ---- May 8-August 8.    

All the days in this period receive enough solar energy at the surface to be in the top 25%.

[qg_omega]

5 hours ago, jconsor said:

Important caveat to keep in mind when interpreting GFS/GEFS guidance:
 

 

looks like its incorporating urban heat islands well

[SACRUS]

Some rain showers between 6 and 9.

 

[donsutherland1]

It was a sun-filled day at the New York Botanical Garden with a high of 78°. The first roses and peonies are now starting to blossom. Azaleas and tulips are generally past their peak. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another fair and warm day. Highs will climb into the middle and upper 70s. A few 80° temperatures are possible.

Readings will remain generally above normal through next weekend as the ongoing blocking dissipates and warmer air comes eastward. Tuesday and Wednesday could be somewhat cooler as a small area of cooler air passes through the region. The duration and magnitude of the overall warm period could determine the overall monthly temperature anomaly.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Whether that will be the case this year remains to be seen. For now, the outcome is far too close to call.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was +11.13 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.351 today.

On May 5 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.555 (RMM). The May 4-adjusted amplitude was 2.463 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.2° (normal).

 

[Rmine1]

Ok I’ll bite. Radar doesn’t look very promising for this evening. I’ve been as “wrong as rain” lately so it’ll probably pour later. Lol

[wishcast_hater]

I was just remarking to my wife earlier today that it doesn’t look like we’re gonna get any rain for the next few days. I need rain as I seeded my lawn and don’t want to spend hours moving my sprinkler around. AccuWeather had us at 0% for the day and here it is raining out. Just goes to show you they don’t know what the hell is going on


.

[Rjay]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It was a sun-filled day at the New York Botanical Garden with a high of 78°. The first roses and peonies are now starting to blossom. Azaleas and tulips are generally past their peak. 

Nice pics. My azaleas are getting ready to bloom.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    67degs.(57/77) or +5.

Reached 70 here at 2pm.

Today:   73-77, wind n. to nw., p. sunny, 55 tomorrow AM.

60*(75%RH) at 7am.      64* at 9am.       69* at Noon.      75* at 3pm.      77* at 4pm.     80* at 5pm.      Reached 82* at 6pm.      74* at 8pm.

[psv88]

77 and sunny. Perfect 

[SACRUS]

 

78 and sunny.  Looks like a decent stretch of weather (overall) through the next week.  Outside of the showrers Tue (5/9) and perhaps some rain/storms Mothers Day (5/14) it looks mostly dry, sunny and a few days of 80s Fri (5/12) and Sat (5/13).  Beyond there trough into the east, bt looks transient and not much below normal.  No real indications of a warm or cooler departures lasting and overall near normal into the middle 15th - 19th of the month.  Perhaps late month riding could push temps back near 90 but way out there.

[donsutherland1]

16 hours ago, Rjay said:

Nice pics. My azaleas are getting ready to bloom.

Thank you, Rjay.

[TWCCraig]

Beautiful day, 78 degrees.

Take note, those "clouds" to our northeast are not clouds but smoke from wildfires raging in Alberta and British Columbia in Canada. Impressively thick smoke from thousands of miles away

[winterwx21]

High temp of 80 here today. Absolutely beautiful ... felt very comfortable with the low humidity. More spectacular weather coming for wednesday and thursday. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Wednesday will be somewhat cooler days. However, temperatures will remain generally above normal through the coming weekend and perhaps longer. The duration and magnitude of this overall warm period could determine the overall monthly temperature anomaly.

The Pacific Northwest could see near record to record heat develop in parts of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia during the weekend.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Whether that will be the case this year remains to be seen. For now, the outcome is far too close to call with the sensitivity analysis showing a "coin toss" outcome.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around May 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was +0.25 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.703 today.

On May 6 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.212 (RMM). The May 5-adjusted amplitude was 2.554 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.2° (normal normal).

 

[Eduardo]

Aside from driving blizzard conditions, this is some of the best weather for a late-night walk.  If you’ve got a few mins to spare, do it!

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     68degs.(58/77) or +5.

Month to date is    57.4[-2.8].       Should be     62.7[+1.1] by the 17th.

Reached 82 here yesterday at 6pm.

Today:    64-67, wind e., variable clouds to clear, 53 tomorrow AM.

60*(37%RH) here at 7am{was 59 at 6am}-{68 at midnight}     64* at 9am.      63* at 11am.     61* at Noon.    63* at 3pm.      66* at 4pm.       60* at 8pm.

[nycwinter]

another hoodie day for me in the city..

[SACRUS]

50 for a low.  Up to 62 and mostly cloud.  Some showers disbursed north and west of the area but not much expected.  Should see breaks in the clouds today and get to 70 with a great stretch of weather the next week dry, plenty of sun and warm.  Outside of Saturday with some clouds and showers, the week look sunny and dry, with highs peaking Fri (5/12) in the  mid / perhaps upper 80s.  Should we get a period or periods of sun on Saturday it could match Fri in the 80s.   Mothers day looks ok for now with trough pushing through Mon (5/15) but not much preicp.  Beyond there troughs pushing into the GL/MW and moving through the NE but no real big swing either way and likely close to normal. Way out there but Ec ridging towards the last week could push a summery Memoridal Day.

 

 

[psv88]

Beautiful day. 66 and sunny. 

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, nycwinter said:

another hoodie day for me in the city..

Uh? It's warm