May 2023

[Wxoutlooksblog]

2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

3-13 more would be the lowest since 2013. We look to add 1 next week. Typically we start adding them more so in July and August lately and no long range forecast is any good anymore. Although like clockwork I’m sure we will use up any cool anomalies right after Thanksgiving in time for the seemingly annual Torchmas luau.  

We  could add one next week but I think the odds are against it with light winds and probably onshore afternoon breezes. It looks to me more like mid to perhaps upper 80s for the city and coastal areas before the onshore breezes kick in.

WX/PT

[doncat]

Been radiating down into the 40's here last few mornings, actually only missing station record lows by a couple degrees.

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of May are averaging    70degs.(60/80) or +3.

Month to date is     61.9[-0.6].         May should end at     63.2[Normal].

Reached 75 here yesterday at 5:30pm.

Today:   71-76, wind going to s., p.  sunny, 58 tomorrow AM.

60*(52%RH) here at 7am{was 59* at 6am}      62* at 8am.      68* at Noon.      69* at 2pm.       74* at 4pm.     Reached 76* at 5pm.     64* at 8pm.

Long wait for any real rain.    Doesn't this lead to HWs?

[nycwinter]

i cannot remember a year where into late may  dewpoints continue to be low..

[JustinRP37]

27 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i cannot remember a year where into late may  dewpoints continue to be low..

I was just thinking this! Air is so dry that once the sun goes down it gets chilly fast! Usually by now we have faced the early stages of the relentless dew’s of the past decade. 

[SnoSki14]

46 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i cannot remember a year where into late may  dewpoints continue to be low..

Still dropping into the 40s by morning and that could continue for a bit

Nice trough on ensembles showing up for June too 

[SACRUS]

 

69 and sunshine. Gorgeous day on tap with upper 70s to near 80.  Still wonder if some of the clouds make it north tomorrow or Monday, ff not, more sunshine, 70s to low 80s and dry.   The rain will stay south.  As the ULL moves out Tue, the flow comes around to the NW/W and we warm up to upper 80s and 90s to open the month Thu / Fri.  

Trough back in next weekend but guidance likely keeps it near normal/cooler but dry.  Trough pushes through by the middle of the forst week of Jun and the next shot of meaningful rain in the period 6/4 - 6/9.  RIdging coming east way beyond there.

 

What was forecast over the northeast - check out the SE SC/GA/NC area.  Looks tropical almost

 

[SACRUS]

35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Still dropping into the 40s by morning and that could continue for a bit

Nice trough on ensembles showing up for June too 

 

Interesting progression as the trough builds down from the NE - SW(ish) 6/4 - 6/9.  Will see beyond there if the ridging into the plains shifts east.  Looks dry but youd think some showers and storms would pop with that look in early June.  Dryness should allow 850s >15c to touch 90 Thu and Fri this week.

[SnoSki14]

16 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Interesting progression as the trough builds down from the NE - SW(ish) 6/4 - 6/9.  Will see beyond there if the ridging into the plains shifts east.  Looks dry but youd think some showers and storms would pop with that look in early June.  Dryness should allow 850s >15c to touch 90 Thu and Fri this week.

I don't see the ridging push east. We'll probably have to wait until the WAR gets into gear to get into the real dewy heat. 

Some showers/t-storms due to the cool/hot gradient seem probable

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Still dropping into the 40s by morning and that could continue for a bit

Nice trough on ensembles showing up for June too 

not much cold in the trough

[SnoSki14]

22 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

not much cold in the trough

That's the status quo nowadays. I imagine a strong ridge would get us to 100+ pretty easily given how dry its been

[SACRUS]

75/40  just amazing today.

[donsutherland1]

A strong storm with a warm core but frontal boundaries rendering it non-tropical brought heavy rain and unseasonably cool conditions to parts of the Southeast. At Savannah, the daily low temperature was 53°, which tied the daily record set in 1961. The high temperature so far has been 61°, which is well below the record low maximum temperature of 68° from 1972. Rainfall has amounted to 1.38", which broke the old record of 1.25" from 1996.

In the northern Middle Atlantic region, sunshine and warm temperatures prevailed. The generally warm and dry weather will likely continue through the weekend and Memorial Day Holiday.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. The latest data suggests that May 2023 has a better than 2-in-3 chance of winding up somewhat cooler than normal.

June could start off with very warm readings. Parts of the Middle Atlantic region could see the temperature approach or reach 90° on one or more days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -2.05 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.660 today.

On May 25 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.137 (RMM). The May 24-adjusted amplitude was 2.106 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.9° (0.3° below normal).

 

[Picard]

43/79 here in Sparta.  Amazing day.  

33/80 out at Walpack!

Dry air feels great, and it's nice not having dew all over everything in the morning and evening.  However, rainfall is badly needed again.

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I was just thinking this! Air is so dry that once the sun goes down it gets chilly fast! Usually by now we have faced the early stages of the relentless dew’s of the past decade. 

The earlier arrival of spring sets the stage for  these late season killing freezes.

Albany Area, NY
Period of record: 1874-01-01 through 2023-05-26DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record

4/13	89 in 2023	87 in 1977	85 in 1945
4/14	89 in 2023	83 in 1968	83 in 1938

 

https://www.timesunion.com/hudsonvalley/news/article/grapes-apples-freeze-crops-18114499.php

Grout was not alone. Several crops in the Hudson Valley suffered significant damage after Thursday’s unseasonably low temperatures, which saw temperatures falling to 28 degrees in Guilderland, 31 degrees in Colonie and 27 degrees in Hudson. One farming expert estimated that 30-35 percent of the region’s apple crop had been lost. Grapes were hit harder, with crops north of New York City impacted and some vineyards reporting losses of 100 percent.

 

 

[SACRUS]

5/27
 

EWR: 80
PHL: 80
New Brnswck: 79
TEB: 79
LGA: 78
TTN: 78
NYC: 78
BLM: 75
ISP: 75
ACY: 74
JFK: 73

[CIK62]

The last 4 days of May are averaging   70degs.(59/81) or +3.

Month to date is   62.1[-0.6].     May should end at  63.1[-0.1].

Reached 76 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:  72-77, wind w. to s., p. sunny, 62 tomorrow AM.

61*(60%RH) here at 7am{60* at 6am}     63* at 8am.     66* at Noon.      67* at 2pm.      70* at 3pm.     Reached 73* at 5pm.

[SACRUS]

 

67 and mostly sunny. As suspected clouds and even some rain showers much north of guidance (into the DelMarVa/SNJ).  We'll see but should stay mostly clear north of there and on way to another beauty but suspect more clouds than Sat.   Memorial day (5/29) a clone of today with upper 70s low 80s.  Winds turn more onshore Tue (5/30) and drop temps back into the lower 70s.

Warms a bit Wed (5/31) but the low associated with the cut off /ULL tracks out and east by the Thu (6/1) which should keep temps in the 70s/80s before the brief surge heat Fri (6/2) and perhaps Sat (6/3)

Trough a bit less pronounced on subsequent sets of guidance so more normal to perhaps above overall beyond.

 

 

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The last 4 days of May are averaging   70degs.(59/81) or +3.

Month to date is   62.1[-0.6].     May should end at  63.1[-0.1].

Reached 76 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:  72-77, wind w. to s., p. sunny, 62 tomorrow AM.

61*(60%RH) here at 7am{60* at 6am}     63* at 8am.

Continue to see rain chances abate in the longer range.  INteresting pattern we are in.

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 96 (2016)
NYC: 94 (1959)
LGA: 92 (2016)

Lows:

EWR: 42 (1961)
NYC: 43 (1961)
LGA: 44 (1961)

Historical:

1877 - A "terrific" two day long sandstorm (sand) blasted Yuma, AZ. (28th-29th) (The Weather Channel)

1880: An estimated F4 tornado hit Savoy, Texas. The storm killed 14 people, and 60 others were injured. It leveled the entire business and northeast residential sections. The tornado was described as "a funnel blazing with balls of fire." 

1942 - The latest snowstorm of record for the state of Iowa left ten inches at LeMars, eight inches at Cherokee, and 7.5 inches at Waukon. Afternoon highs were in the lower 30s in parts of northwestern Iowa. (The Weather Channel)

1947 - A storm produced heavy snow across Wisconsin, with ten inches reported at Gay Mills. The snow damaged fruit and other trees, and downed power lines. The storm was followed by the coldest weather of the month for much of the High Plains Region and Missouri Valley. Williston ND reported a low of 21 degrees the morning of the 28th, and the next morning Cheyenne WY reported a morning low of 16 above zero. (David Ludlum)

 

1973: An F3 tornado moved east and struck the northern portion of Athens, Georgia. Destruction was massive near Athens, with losses estimated at ten million dollars. Damage from the storm included 545 homes and 17 businesses. Hundreds of large trees more than 100 years old were destroyed.

1987 - Thunderstorms produced torrential rains in Oklahoma and northern Texas. Lake Altus, OK, was deluged with nine inches of rain. Up to eight inches drenched northern Texas, and baseball size hail was reported north of Seminole and at Knickerbocker. Ten to 13 inch rains soaked central Oklahoma the last five days of May resulting in an estimated 65 million dollars damage, and forcing several thousand persons to evacuate their homes, many by boat or helicopter. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A sharp cold front began to usher cold, wet and windy weather into the western U.S. Thunderstorms in the Great Plains Region produced wind gusts to 80 mph near Brookings, SD. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Unseasonably hot weather continued in Florida. Five cities reported record high temperatures for the date. The record high of 98 degrees at Lakeland, FL, was their fifth in a row. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Florida late in the day, with golf ball size hail reported at Kissimmee. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Two to five inches of rain over southeastern Ohio on the 28th and 29th capped an exceptionally wet month of May, and triggered widespread flooding. Flooding which resulted claimed three lives, and caused millions of dollars damage. Numerous roads in southeast Ohio were flooded and impassable, and many other roads were blocked by landslides. (Storm Data)

 

2015: Some parts of Oklahoma have seen more than a foot of rain during May 2015. Storms killed at least 17 people in Texas and Oklahoma, and more than a dozen are still missing. State climatologist Gary McManus from the Oklahoma Climatological Survey calculated the May rainfall total averaged over all Sooner State reporting stations through midday May 29 - 14.18 inches - was easily outpacing the previous record wet month, set in October 1941 (10.75 inches).

 

lhdos

[SACRUS]

 

[jm1220]

32 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

My wager is the clouds will probably make it here to at least I-80 since these systems always seem to make a last lurch north-at least the high clouds and tomorrow may not be so nice because of the back door front and increasing easterly winds on the coast, but all in all awesome weekend. 

[Stormlover74]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

My wager is the clouds will probably make it here to at least I-80 since these systems always seem to make a last lurch north-at least the high clouds and tomorrow may not be so nice because of the back door front and increasing easterly winds on the coast, but all in all awesome weekend. 

I was surprised Upton went complete sunshine for today but I guess we'll see

[SACRUS]

Made it to 80 now down to 77 with mainly overcast skies. 

 

 

[Cfa]

78 with wall to wall sunshine. High of 81 so far.

[bluewave]

Nice job by Don getting retweeted by the SERCC.

 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Nice job by Don getting retweeted by the SERCC.

 

And they follow him too now. 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

And they follow him too now. 

One of the reasons I joined the old forum was the quality of Don’s posts. Then I just followed the whole crew over here. Uncle was another poster I enjoyed reading back in those days before I started to posting myself. 

[gravitylover]

5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

I was surprised Upton went complete sunshine for today but I guess we'll see

Still not a cloud in sight here. I don't think I could have ordered a nicer day. 

[donsutherland1]

Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures rose into the upper 70s with some lower 80s. The generally warm and dry weather continue through the Memorial Day Holiday.

Across central and upstate New York and central and northern New England, hot weather prevailed. High temperatures there included:

Albany: 90°
Bangor: 91° (old record: 90°, 1959)
Boston: 86°
Burlington: 89°
Caribou: 86°
Concord: 91°
Hartford: 87°
Manchester: 92°
Portland: 89°

Tuesday and Wednesday will be somewhat cooler days in the Middle Atlantic region. However, June could start with above normal temperatures, but a trough will likely develop leading to a return of cooler conditions shortly afterward.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. The latest data suggests that May 2023 has a better than 2-in-3 chance of winding up somewhat cooler than normal.

June could start off with very warm readings. Parts of the Middle Atlantic region could see the temperature approach or reach 90° on one or more days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was +6.22 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.895 today.

On May 26 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.802 (RMM). The May 25-adjusted amplitude was 2.143 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.8° (0.4° below normal).