Brian5671 Posted May 19, 2023 Author Share Posted May 19, 2023 RGEM West and a drencher for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 48 minutes ago, psv88 said: Perfect. Just in time for my kids baseball game My son’s game is at 3pm. I’m sure they’ll call the games for tomorrow early in the morning. SLL already postponed the all star game that was scheduled for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: RGEM West and a drencher for many That would be brutal with the heavy rain missing most of NJ just to the east. Hopefully the HRRR and 3km NAM will be correct about the heavy rain making it back into NJ. Obviously an extremely difficult forecast right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 19, 2023 Author Share Posted May 19, 2023 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: That would be brutal with the heavy rain missing most of NJ just to the east. Hopefully the HRRR and 3km NAM will be correct about the heavy rain making it back into NJ. Obviously an extremely difficult forecast right now. may see some more ticks to the west...3K NAM seems to be leading the way on this.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: That would be brutal with the heavy rain missing most of NJ just to the east. Hopefully the HRRR and 3km NAM will be correct about the heavy rain making it back into NJ. Obviously an extremely difficult forecast right now. At least it's not winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 Gfs also west but less on the western edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 Cmc wetter east of the city but drier elsewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 19, 2023 Author Share Posted May 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Cmc wetter east of the city but drier elsewhere Hudson river might be the cutoff here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs also west but less on the western edge I'd sign for a half inch right now. Just give me enough to give the vegetable garden a decent watering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Hudson river might be the cutoff here.... I mean maybe but with 3knam and hrrr being so wet it's hard to discount that solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 the hrrr's replacement is way west 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the hrrr's replacement is way west Would be hysterical if this goes west enough to shaft much of LI after models 12 hours ago were mostly east. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 19, 2023 Author Share Posted May 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Would be hysterical if this goes west enough to shaft much of LI after models 12 hours ago were mostly east. reminds of this winter when every storm trended west and ended up over Buffalo. WAR has been undermodeled forever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: reminds of this winter when every storm trended west and ended up over Buffalo. WAR has been undermodeled forever Somehow NJ always finds their way into these significant rain events. Can’t think of many LI/CT special rain events over the last 10 years (big exception the 2014 record soaker for ISP). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: reminds of this winter when every storm trended west and ended up over Buffalo. WAR has been undermodeled forever Signs to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 Euro still east, main rain band from twin forks into southeast mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 19, 2023 Author Share Posted May 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Euro still east, main rain band from twin forks into southeast mass biggest coup ever or biggest bust ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 Looking at the latest WV loop a potent kicker over the western Lakes and southern stream S/W progressing steadily along should serve to keep moisture plume over eastern NC and offshore waters moving more eastward than northward. No real sign of western edge of mid and high level moisture making it more westward since this morning. Sharp western edge and has not made any progress to the left. I'm in the model camps that are featuring drier west and wetter east. Generally favoring .25" to .50" for most of NJ with the .25" closer to the Delaware and the .50" closer to GSP....as a rough guide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro still east, main rain band from twin forks into southeast mass It's going to be horrible if the Euro ends up being right. No rain in sight after saturday ... we'd be looking at a whole month of no rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 18 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: It's going to be horrible if the Euro ends up being right. No rain in sight after saturday ... we'd be looking at a whole month of no rain. Yup. Once the ridge takes over the country it’s over for rain chances the rest of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 HREF for tomorrow's rainfall: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 18z hrrr coming in super wet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 19, 2023 Author Share Posted May 19, 2023 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 18z hrrr coming in super wet again crazy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: crazy Either that or the Euro are in for a total fail. Like epic splat in front of a million people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 19, 2023 Author Share Posted May 19, 2023 Just now, jm1220 said: Either that or the Euro are in for a total fail. Like epic splat in front of a million people. or maybe a blend of the two--everyone get an inch of rain...that would be the best outcome honestly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 the href is deadly with this stuff and i'm riding it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Yup. Once the ridge takes over the country it’s over for rain chances the rest of the month Models have cutoffs underneath the ridge which is displaced north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 3k coming in west again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 Regular nam came way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 And the regular NAM just joined in and came well west. It now gets heavy rain pretty far west into NJ. Can't completely discount the Euro, but it seems very unlikely that it'll be right since it's alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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