CIK62 Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 64degs.(55/73) or -1. Month to date is 62.3[+0.9]. Should be 62.9[+0.3] by thr 26th. Reached 66 here yesterday. Today: 58-63,wind e. to s., p. sunny, 51 tomorrow AM. 49*(40%RH) here at 7am{was 48 at 6am}. 52* at 9am. 53* at Noon. 56* at 2pm. Reached 61* at 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2023 Author Share Posted May 18, 2023 Some frost on rooftops and cartops here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 38 my low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 Woke up to 36 with dew at 30. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 Euro east again at 06z. Lawn is definitely on its way to looking like last summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 Just now, Allsnow said: Euro east again at 06z. Lawn is definitely on its way to looking like last summer GFS like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2023 Author Share Posted May 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, FPizz said: GFS like? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2023 Author Share Posted May 18, 2023 Most models outside of CMC and RGEM are an east of NYC event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 37 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 Lots of upper 20s in the usual cold spots in western, NJ. Lowest I found is 25 at Walpack. Rebounding nicely later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 Down to 37 now up to 53. Overall (outside of Sat) dry, near normal stretch of weather the next 8 days. Sat (5/20) rain for the area, first meaningful amounts in more than 2 weeks, brunt or heavist >1 inch or more still to be determined. could see temps push near 80 Sunday (5/21) with enough clearing, balanced out by cooler Mon (5/22) and Tue (5/23). Warming tend through the rest of next week with ridge building into the Ohio Valley and east memorial day weekend. Need to see if onshore flow undercuts ridge and perhaps some stormiess run up under, but overall warmer / more humid and perhaps heat build down by months end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Most models outside of CMC and RGEM are an east of NYC event. Good Have a softball game Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 Some of this morning’s records: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 Rgem seems to finally be caving to the euro and America guidance but is still quite a bit wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 Had to bring my house plants in last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Rgem seems to finally be caving to the euro and America guidance but is still quite a bit wetter We know where this one’s going. Keep the sprinklers on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We know where this one’s going. Keep the sprinklers on. Yep! Not surprised and not unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2023 Author Share Posted May 18, 2023 12z GFS a bit west-rains from city on east .50-1.00 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: 12z GFS a bit west-rains from city on east .50-1.00 Ukie pretty dry for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 18 minutes ago, FPizz said: Ukie pretty dry for most Cmc still wet...I'm leaning towards under .25" for anyone west of the city 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 12z Euro gets decent half inch rains pretty far to the northwest. That along with the CMC keeps hope alive that gardens will finally get a nice watering on saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2023 Author Share Posted May 18, 2023 Euro west again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 59 for a high so far at ewr. Impressive for a sunny mid to late may day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 3 hours ago, jm1220 said: We know where this one’s going. Keep the sprinklers on. Euro just came west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 59 for a high so far at ewr. Impressive for a sunny mid to late may day Undeniably a first class "cold" shot for this time of year. Not only for the numerous record lows across the Northeast this morning but for afternoon highs yesterday and today. Quite impressive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2023 Author Share Posted May 18, 2023 15 minutes ago, MANDA said: Undeniably a first class "cold" shot for this time of year. Not only for the numerous record lows across the Northeast this morning but for afternoon highs yesterday and today. Quite impressive. seems like a microcosm of this past winter. 2 short, but wild cold blasts that were in and out in 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 Rgem shifted east again. Nice hit for suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2023 Author Share Posted May 18, 2023 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Rgem shifted east again. Nice hit for suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 Unseasonably cool readings prevailed following a morning with near record and record cold. However, the coldest air is now in the past. Slow moderation will commence tomorrow. Readings will continue to warm during the weekend, but rain is possible. Parts of the region could see a general 0.25"-0.75" of rain with some higher amounts. A stripe of 1"-2" of rain is possible across eastern New England. Some of the guidance suggests that temperatures could return to the 80s to close the month. Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Nevertheless, the guidance has persistently suggested that the month will end with a somewhat warmer than normal average. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was -9.86 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.333 today. On May 16 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.765 (RMM). The May 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.458 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.3° (0.1° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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