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May 2023


Brian5671
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2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The last 2 days of May are averaging    67degs.(56/78) or -2.

Month to date is     62.6[-0.3].       May should end at    62.9[-0.3].

Reached 77 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:    68-72, wind e. to se., p. sunny 56 tomorrow AM.

57*(68%RH) here at 7am{was 55 overnight}.      59* at 8am.

First GFS run with an unfulfilled 100 or+?    Every year this happens maybe on 100 runs during the summer.

1685426400-K7SpLqLigX8.png

 

 

Wouldnt surprise me if it's off by more than 20 degrees and Saturday is stuck in the 60s, perhaps midnight / wee morning highs but Sat and potentially Sunday look cool and mistu.

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1 hour ago, Superstorm93 said:

Quite possibly the dullest May I can remember in the last 10+ years. 

Haven't even had a lightning strike since April over here.

Our peak severe season is half gone and there are no threats on the horizon. I'm not gonna complain about the lack of heat/humidity but it would have been nice to sneak an event in somewhere.

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12 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Our peak severe season is half gone and there are no threats on the horizon. I'm not gonna complain about the lack of heat/humidity but it would have been nice to sneak an event in somewhere.

City on east is tough for severe in April/May-we are the graveyard of severe storms here until later in June...marine layer kills most storms 

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Still a remarkable lack of rainfall over the next 7 to 10 days on most of the latest guidance.  Lawns in partial to full sun in my area that are not being watered are browning QUICKLY.  Planted flowers and vegetables being watered every second to third day.  Potted plants needing water daily or they wilt.

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I am in a high rise in CI and can smell this smoke continuously.     Visibility is about 6 miles and the Verrazano Bridge is about to white out from my vantage point high up.      

Almost smells like something in the smoke can make you high after a while---no it is not Mar...........!      In the bark of the burning trees perhaps.

Ha! Ha!   The EURO still can not make it to 80............and it has some rain Saturday.      GFS at 95.

1685448000-VzZcmyrrHC0.png

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2 hours ago, tdp146 said:

Maybe I’m trying too hard, but I actually think you can smell a hint of smoke right now when you initially step outside. 

I heard some mets say it's possible, since this time it can mix down to the surface and affect air quality.

I noticed the haze in the sky around 1pm. Sitting in a Manhattan high rise I can make out it lowering now to near ground level and in between buildings like fog. 

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12 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

I am in a high rise in CI and can smell this smoke continuously.     Visibility is about 6 miles and the Verrazano Bridge is about to white out from my vantage point high up.      

Almost smells like something in the smoke can make you high after a while---no it is not Mar...........!      In the bark of the burning trees perhaps.

Ha! Ha!   The EURO still can not make it to 80............and it has some rain Saturday.      GFS at 95.

1685448000-VzZcmyrrHC0.png

Took a walk outside and you def can smell it and see it from street level.

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1 hour ago, dWave said:

I go uptown to the Bx and the sky is blue and no perseivable smoke..but how if it's coming from the NE, or is it sweeping around from the south? Or is it because it more breezy here?

Seems to be coming in waves?

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27 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

This is the thickest smoke we've ever had here that I can remember. My memory of stale, hot, humid summer days before  catalytic converters is similar. Yuck... 

we had one in the summer in the early 2000s from fires in canada too. Just now it was strong enough that it smelled like the neighbors house was on fire.

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Temperatures will begin to rebound tomorrow. June will start with above normal temperatures, but a trough will likely develop leading to a return of cooler conditions shortly afterward.

The latest ECMWF weeklies suggest that sustained warmer than normal conditions could develop during or after the second week of June.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. The latest data suggests that May 2023 is now extremely likely to wind up somewhat cooler than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around May 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -15.45 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.057 today.

On May 28 the MJO was not available. The May 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.796 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied nera 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.8° (0.4° below normal).

 

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