May 2023

[MJO812]

52 here

 

 

 

Lovely morning with a hoodie on

[CIK62]

The last 7 days of May are averaging    68degs.(58/78) or +1.

Month to date is     62.0[-0.3].       May should end at    63.4[+0.2].

Reached 69 here yesterday at 6pm.

Today:   64-68, wind n. to e., p. sunny-variable clouds, 53 tomorrow AM.

52*(59%RH) here at 7am{was 51* at 6am}.      53* at 8am.     54* at 9am.      59* at Noon.    66* at 2pm.      70* at 4pm.       73* at 5pm.     74* at 5:30pm.     

In the voice of R2D2 on KWO-35 it is "Mostly Sunny x 7"

[MANDA]

Had .03" rainfall last evening.  Meaningless.

[SACRUS]

Up to a cool 58 but bright sunshine.  Coolest day of the lot today.  Looking like a rare dry whole Memorial Day extended weekend. Unless the ULL exits north of the carolines.   70s Fri (5/26), Sat (5/27) and Sun (5/28) - onshore flow / NE flow will keep the beaches chilly.  Wamer by Mon Memorial day (5/29) : 80s.  As the ULL pulls out and winds come around NW/W we get a 2-3 day warm up May 30 - Jun 2nd or 3rd with some chance at 90 in the warmer spots by the middle of next week.   Next shpt at meaningful rain 6/2-6/3.

Front and trough push into the NE by next weekend (6/3) as ridge goes up into the Rockies / N Plains states.

 

 

[MANDA]

36 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Up to a cool 58 but bright sunshine.  Coolest day of the lot today.  Looking like a rare dry whole Memorial Day extended weekend. Unless the ULL exits north of the carolines.   70s Fri (5/26), Sat (5/27) and Sun (5/28) - onshore flow / NE flow will keep the beaches chilly.  Wamer by Mon Memorial day (5/29) : 80s.  As the ULL pulls out and winds come around NW/W we get a 2-3 day warm up May 30 - Jun 2nd or 3rd with some chance at 90 in the warmer spots by the middle of next week.   Next shpt at meaningful rain 6/2-6/3.

Front and trough push into the NE by next weekend (6/3) as ridge goes up into the Rockies / N Plains states.

 

 

Nice clean and smoke free air mass for a change.  All the smoke has been pushed south and WAY south at that into parts of the gulf coast states.  Unfortunately with the continued lack of rain the bright sun will continue to dry the top soil.  As SACRUS suggested no meaningful rain prior to 6/2 or 6/3.  Whole lot of drying between now and then.  Will be watering frequently.

[nycwinter]

hoodie was back on this morning a chill in the air it felt like a november day.

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Nice clean and smoke free air mass for a change.  All the smoke has been pushed south and WAY south at that into parts of the gulf coast states.  Unfortunately with the continued lack of rain the bright sun will continue to dry the top soil.  As SACRUS suggested no meaningful rain prior to 6/2 or 6/3.  Whole lot of drying between now and then.  Will be watering frequently.

And maybe not even then. Gfs basically dry through the 8th

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

And maybe not even then. Gfs basically dry through the 8th

I saw that but didn't want to go there.  Kind of far out there but we need the overall pattern to break so it might be correct!  Until we get the persistent above normal heights away from the northeast and adjacent parts of Canada and the Atlantic I don't see potential for change to a more frequent wetter pattern.  At this point I'd welcome some south or southwest return flow to pump up the moisture for a front to act upon.

Just looks like a rather dry and turning warmer west to northwest flow aloft.

[Dan76]

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

And maybe not even then. Gfs basically dry through the 8th

This would be nice lala land 

[jm1220]

Just now, Dan76 said:

This would be nice lala land 

Drooling at a 360hr MCS. That’s desperation. 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

highs:

 

EWR: 93 (1991)
NYC: 95 (1880)
LGA: 95 (2007)

 

Lows:

 

EWR: 42 (1956)
NYC: 41 (1925)
LGA: 44 (1967)

Historical:

1896: An estimated F5 tornado hit Oakwood, Ortonville, and Thomas, Michigan. Forty-seven people were killed, and 100 were injured. Trees were debarked "even to the twigs, as though done by the careful hand of an experienced artisan." Parts of houses were found up to 12 miles away.

1917 - A tornado ripped through southeast Kansas, traveling 65 mph. The average speed was a record for any tornado. (The Weather Channel)

1955 - Two tornadoes struck the town of Blackwell, OK, within a few minutes time during the late evening. The tornadoes killed 18 persons and injured more than 500 others. Early the next morning a tornado virtually obliterated the small community of Udall KS killing 80 persons and injuring 270 persons. More than half the persons in the community were killed or injured by the tornado. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1975: On Raccoon Lake, Indiana, lightning struck the motor of a speedboat and traveled up the control wires, killing the driver. The 38-year-old man was knocked into the water by the bolt. His wife and two children, also in the boat, were not injured.

1987 - Thunderstorms spawned fifteen tornadoes in West Texas. One thunderstorm spawned a powerful tornado near Gruver, TX, along with golf ball size hail and 75 mph winds. A man on a boat on Lake Bistineau in northwest Louisiana was struck and killed by lightning, while the other three persons in the boat were unharmed. The man reportedly stood up in the boat and asked to be struck by lightning. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Unseasonably cool weather prevailed in the Upper Midwest. Marquette, MI, reported a record low of 26 degrees. Thunderstorms in the north central U.S. produced wind gusts to 62 mph at Idaho Falls, ID, and produced 4 inches of rain in less than four hours in northern Buffalo County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a strong cold front produced severe weather from Oklahoma to Ohio through the day and night. Thunderstorms spawned nine tornadoes, and there were 155 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Hail three and a half inches in diameter was reported at Dittmer, MO, and thunderstorm winds gusting to 90 MPH caused twenty million dollars damage at Rockville IN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Evening thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Kansas and Missouri, and there were three dozen reports of large hail or damaging winds. Thunderstorms produced hail two inches in diameter at Cole Camp, and wind gusts to 72 mph at Rosebud. Heavy thunderstorm rains produced flash flooding in central Missouri. Flood waters swept through Washington State Park southwest of Saint Louis, and nearly one hundred persons had to be rescued from water as much as twenty feet deep. The flood waters swept away a number of vehicles, some were carried as much as four miles away. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2008: A rare, large and destructive EF5 tornado created a 43-mile long path across Butler and Black Hawk counties in Iowa. This tornado killed eight people, injured dozens and caused several millions of dollars in damage. The tornado was nearly three-quarters of a mile wide as it moved through the southern end of Parkersburg. A third of the town was affected by devastating damage with nearly 200 homes destroyed. This storm produced the first EF5 tornado in Iowa since 6/13/1976 and only the third EF5 tornado to occur in the United States in the past ten years. 

 

[lee59]

After record snowfall this past winter, parts of the Rockies still have some 20-30 feet of snow. A lot of Memorial Day hiking and camping activities have been put on hold as many areas are still not passable.

rR

[495weatherguy]

14 minutes ago, lee59 said:

After record snowfall this past winter, parts of the Rockies still have some 20-30 feet of snow. A lot of Memorial Day hiking and camping activities have been put on hold as many areas are still not passable.

rR

Thats amazing--July 4th Fireworks/Ski party?

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be fair somewhat milder. The temperature will top out in the lower 70s. The warming trend will continue through the weekend.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. With the guidance now showing a late week cool shot, the probability of a somewhat cooler than normal May has continued to increase.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -45.48 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.296 today.

On May 23 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.850 (RMM). The May 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.479 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.0° (0.2° below normal).

 

[CIK62]

The last 6 days of May are averaging    67degs.(57/77) Normal.

Month to date is     61.9[-0.5].       May should end at     62.9[-0.3].

Reached 74 here yesterday at 7pm.

Today:   70-74, wind ne. to s., p. sunny, 56 tomorrow AM.

57*(62%RH) here at 7am{was 56 at 6am}.     60* at 8am.       62* at 9am.      66* at Noon.        70* at 3pm.       71* at 4pm.

72* at 5pm.      Reached 74* at 5:30pm.

[SACRUS]

Up to 63 and more bright sunshine on a NE wind.  70s today and Sat (5/27) before Sun (5/28) and Memorial Day (5/29) touch 80.   Overall dry and ULL is over the southeast/Carolinas.  I guess the proverbial other shoe didnt drop this holiday weekend.  It does look like all rain and even clouds stay south of the area as the low exits early next week.  Cooler at the beaches with onshore E/ENE flow this weekend.

Next week continues dry and stronger onshore flow knocks temps down to near 70 Tue (5/30) before jumping back up to near 80 Mon (5/31).  The month opens warm  as flow goes NW/NNW with next shot at 90, especially in the warmer spots Wed  - Fri.

Beyond there the trough kind of back in from the North by next weekend 6/4.  We'll see how much rain is possible between then and 6/8.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 96 (1965)
NYC: 95 (1880)
LGA: 94 (2010)

Lows:

EWR: 44 (1967)
NYC: 42 (1967)
LGA: 45 (1972)

 

Historical:

 

1771 - A famous Virginia flood occurred as heavy rains in the mountains brought all rivers in the state to record high levels. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1917 - A tornado touched down near Louisiana MO about noon and remained on the ground for a distance of 293 miles, finally lifting seven hours and twenty minutes later in eastern Jennings County, IN. The twister cut a swath of destruction two and a half miles wide through Mattoon, IL. There were 101 persons killed in the tornado, including 53 at Mattoon, and 38 at Charleston IL. Damage from the storm totalled 2.5 million dollars. (David Ludlum)

1984 - Thunderstorms during the late evening and early morning hours produced 6 to 13 inches of rain at Tulsa OK in six hours (8.63 inches at the airport). Flooding claimed fourteen lives and caused 90 million dollars property damage. 4600 cars, 743 houses, and 387 apartments were destroyed or severely damage in the flood. (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms in southwest Iowa spawned five tornadoes and produced up to ten inches of rain. Seven inches of rain at Red Oak forced evacuation of nearly 100 persons from the town. Record flooding took place in southwest Iowa the last twelve days of May as up to 17 inches of rain drenched the area. Total damage to crops and property was estimated at 16 million dollars. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - There was "frost on the roses" in the Upper Ohio Valley and the Central Appalachian Mountain Region. Thirteen cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Youngstown OH with a reading of 30 degrees. Evening thunderstorms in North Dakota produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Jamestown. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms in produced large hail in eastern Oklahoma during the pre-dawn hours, and again during the evening and night. Hail two inches in diameter was reported near Prague, and thunderstorm winds gusted to 70 mph near Kenefic. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Colorado to western Arkansas and northeastern Texas. Severe thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes, and there were eighty-eight reports of large hail or damaging winnds. Evening thunderstorms over central Oklahoma spawned strong tornadoes east of Hinton and east of Binger, produced hail three inches in diameter at Minco, and produced wind gusts to 85 mph at Blanchard. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

2009: Northeast of Anchorage, Alaska, two hikers climbed a ridge to see a developing storm better. Lightning knocked the couple unconscious. Regaining consciousness, they called emergency services as the woman was unable to walk. The man's shoes looked as though they had melted.

[bluewave]

Only the 5th time at Newark with an April max Temperature higher than May.

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Apr	May	Season
2002	97	90	97
1990	94	83	94
2023	93	90	93
2009	93	87	93
1976	93	83	93

[MJO812]

I wish this weekend was going to be a washout.

 

[Stormlover74]

Dry as a bone the next 10 days

[winterwx21]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I wish this weekend was going to be a washout.

 

It's a big outdoor holiday weekend, so I'm glad it's going to be dry. I don't want rain messing up our cookouts. I do wish we could get rain after the holiday weekend, but as Stormlover said the long range looks dry unfortunately. The ground is going to be horrendously dry next week and we'll be desperate for rain by the end of the week. Hopefully something will pop up. 

[rclab]

55 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I wish this weekend was going to be a washout.

 

Good afternoon Anthony. Sounds like you’re working this weekend. Stay well, as always …..

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I wish this weekend was going to be a washout.

 

Stop it 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, rclab said:

Good afternoon Anthony. Sounds like you’re working this weekend. Stay well, as always …..

Yes I am 

That's why I don't care

[MANDA]

4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Dry as a bone the next 10 days

Just nasty if you are gardener or have ag interests.

[donsutherland1]

The weekend will get off to a dry and warm start. Temperatures should top out in the middle and upper 70s across the region. The warming trend will continue through the weekend.

Meanwhile, an area running along the South Carolina and North Carolina coastlines will see heavy windswept rain. Both Myrtle Beach and Wilmington could see record daily rainfall for May 27. Myrtle's record of 2.25" was set in 2020. Wilmington's mark of 3.02" was set in 1960.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. The latest data suggests that May 2023 has a better than 2-in-3 chance of winding up somewhat cooler than normal.

June could start off with very warm readings. Parts of the Middle Atlantic region could see the temperature approach or reach 90° on one or more days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -20.89 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.285 today.

On May 24 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.105 (RMM). The May 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.851 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.9° (0.3° below normal).

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I'm now looking for temperatures this July and August in the NYC Metro Region to average near to slightly below normal. We've had 2 90 degree days at the Park so far, I'm looking for 3-13 more.

WX/PT

[Stormlover74]

And naturally the gfs now ends the dry spell with a flood

[SACRUS]

 

5/26

 

Gorgeous day and a  great weekend on tap

EWR: 76
New Brnswck: 75
PHL: 75
TEB: 74
JFK: 73
TTN: 73
LGA: 73
BLM: 72
ISP: 72
NYC: 72
ACY: 69

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I'm now looking for temperatures this July and August in the NYC Metro Region to average near to slightly below normal. We've had 2 90 degree days at the Park so far, I'm looking for 3-13 more.

WX/PT

3-13 more would be the lowest since 2013. We look to add 1 next week. Typically we start adding them more so in July and August lately and no long range forecast is any good anymore. Although like clockwork I’m sure we will use up any cool anomalies right after Thanksgiving in time for the seemingly annual Torchmas luau.