May 2023

[SACRUS]

62 and sunny with smokey  skies.  Dry and near normal this work week.  Mid 70s today , coller Tue (5/23) near 70.  Near 80 Wed (5/24) before cooler on Thu (5/25) and Fri (5/26).

Low ride Memorial day Weekend.  ULL cuts off over the Northeast (north of previous guidance) by Fri / Sat (5/27). Ridge pushes above and below causing onshore flow.  A second cut off into the Southeast (which was previously forecast on guidance earlier last week's long range). That slowly moves out just south of the areas by early next week on the euro and slower on he gfs by next monday through the region.  Overall - onshore flow and we'll see how much of the clouds and rains make it in during the weekend.

Beyond there - look for a push of warmth by early / middle of next week.

 

[BucksCO_PA]

On 5/21/2023 at 11:14 AM, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I'm skeptical about much if any heat prior to the second or third week of June.

WX/PT

Great call from over a month ago for little if any heat thru at least the middle of May if I remember correctly. All the Mt. Holly PA & NJ locations are solidly below average at this point in the month. Locally & at nearby TTN only one 80 day since 4/14. Now if we could pull off a dry / cool couplet during one of the summer months that would really be something.

Speaking of dry.

PHL is currently sitting at a paltry 0.24" of precip for the month. The driest May on record is 0.47" in 1964. The last time PHL recorded any driest month on record was FEB 2002 (0.55").

Additionally should we strike out on the weekend rain opportunity you're looking at one of the driest months on record at any time of year:

0.09" - OCT 1963

0.09" - OCT 1924

0.11" - JUN 1949

0.20" - SEP 1884

0.21" - SEP 2005

0.21" - JUN 1964

0.25" - DEC 1955

0.30" - OCT 1892

0.32" - NOV 1976

0.36" - SEP 1906

[WestBabylonWeather]

Thick haze between clouds today. Smoke? 

[Stormlover74]

Looks like a dry weekend coming up now according to the models. Activity stays north

[JerseyWx]

16 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Thick haze between clouds today. Smoke? 

Yes, very hazy.

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like a dry weekend coming up now according to the models. Activity stays north

Yep, back to the dry pattern.  Feel bad for the folks that did benefit in a meaningful way from the rain this past weekend.  Back to watering the garden and the lawn.  Thankfully temperatures are being held in check for now, no complaints in that department from me.  I'll take this over 90+ any day.

[WestBabylonWeather]

I got over 2” rain Saturday. So I’m ok with a dry weekend. I know that’s a shallow outlook with others in drought but damnit I want to bbq. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I got over 2” rain Saturday. So I’m ok with a dry weekend. I know that’s a shallow outlook with others in drought but damnit I want to bbq. 

I'd say that even if we missed all the rain...we've had 4 weekend days washed out here going back to 4/22/23

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Yep, back to the dry pattern.  Feel bad for the folks that did benefit in a meaningful way from the rain this past weekend.  Back to watering the garden and the lawn.  Thankfully temperatures are being held in check for now, no complaints in that department from me.  I'll take this over 90+ any day.

Thank goodness we got a good soaking here saturday. Amazing what it did for the plants in the vegetable garden ... they had a major growth spurt the last 2 days after that rain. You can water very often, but it's not the same as getting a soaking from the rain. Unfortunately though as you said, it will be back to watering soon. The soil is still moist here, but it will dry out quickly during the week. 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I got over 2” rain Saturday. So I’m ok with a dry weekend. I know that’s a shallow outlook with others in drought but damnit I want to bbq. 

I don't blame you for that. I want to cook outside over the holiday weekend too. As a gardener I usually root for the rain, but I don't want it to ruin a holiday weekend. So I'm glad the models are now showing it dry, and hopefully that will hold. 

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Thick haze between clouds today. Smoke? 

don't you love the weird yellow color outside

[STORMANLI]

2.40"

Now if we could get some rain between the 7-12 dry runs. 

Jes' sayin' 

[Roger Smith]

My location is approx 200-300 miles south of the fires in n BC and n/c Alberta. We had some smoke here during the recent hot spell but now that the flow is more south to southwest (and cool/wet today) our air quality has improved. For several days Edmonton Alberta has had "dangerous" air quality readings like we had here in summer 2021 after the heat dome and lightning caused fires in our region. Some rain is now falling on some of the fires so the volume of smoke being generated should gradually decrease. A lot of these fires are a long way from any human habitation and are being contained rather than actively suppressed due to their vast extent but some closer to Edmonton are more of a direct threat to settlements. 

After a very cold March and first half of April, as soon as your weather turned cooler ours became very warm and the anomaly has been in the +6F range since about April 20th. We had readings near 90F for several days last week. Normal around here in mid-May is about 65F. Today it is only 52F with clouds scudding over after a steady rain ended. This is the first really cool day we have had since the change of pattern. 

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

don't you love the weird yellow color outside

Twilight zone'ish

[HailMan06]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

don't you love the weird yellow color outside

A third of Canada might literally be going up in smoke but I do love how pretty our sunrises and sunsets have been looking.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be fair and pleasant with readings reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s. After mid-week, cooler air will overspread the region.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. With the guidance now showing a late week cool shot, the probability of a somewhat cooler than normal May has continued to increase.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -43.11 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.449 today.

On May 20 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.478 (RMM). The May 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.870 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.8° (0.4° below normal).

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Is it fair to hypothesize that the smoke in the upper atmosphere is keeping temps down a bit?

[lee59]

What a change in the weather here. From a high of 77 this afternoon, now it is a chilly, breezy 60.

[lee59]

Sun was quite impressive to look at a little while ago. Behind the haze, it was a large orange ball that you could stare at.

[Intensewind002]

9 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Sun was quite impressive to look at a little while ago. Behind the haze, it was a large orange ball that you could stare at.

My mom sent me this before, it looks fake honestly. I didn’t get to see the sunset myself, though.

[Dan76]

5 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

My mom sent me this before, it looks fake honestly. I didn’t get to see the sunset myself, though.

AI ?

[lee59]

The sun was low in the sky making it large. The smoke haze made it so you could stare at it. I did not see the red ring the picture shows but a large orange ball was pretty cool to see.

[SRRTA22]

The moon looked awesome too. Red crescent 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

11 hours ago, SACRUS said:

62 and sunny with smokey  skies.  Dry and near normal this work week.  Mid 70s today , coller Tue (5/23) near 70.  Near 80 Wed (5/24) before cooler on Thu (5/25) and Fri (5/26).

Low ride Memorial day Weekend.  ULL cuts off over the Northeast (north of previous guidance) by Fri / Sat (5/27). Ridge pushes above and below causing onshore flow.  A second cut off into the Southeast (which was previously forecast on guidance earlier last week's long range). That slowly moves out just south of the areas by early next week on the euro and slower on he gfs by next monday through the region.  Overall - onshore flow and we'll see how much of the clouds and rains make it in during the weekend.

Beyond there - look for a push of warmth by early / middle of next week.

 

I'm starting to consider the real possibility that the NYC Metro Region could experience a summer of near to even somewhat below normal temperatures. There's no Bermuda HP to speak of and really no signs of one. And the developing El Nino is likely to keep the south energized with upper lows and moisture with hybrid low pressure systems over the western Atlantic sometimes affecting the eastern seaboard. Ridging over the central U. S. also a factor..

WX/PT

[Nibor]

Captured the sunset tonight in a time lapse through the RFK bridge. Video link here is better quality.

[Dark Star]

11 hours ago, Cygnus X-1 said:

Is it fair to hypothesize that the smoke in the upper atmosphere is keeping temps down a bit?

Dunno, but we just went above the predicted high temperature for the day...

[MJO812]

54 here

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    67degs.(57/78) or Normal.

Month to date is    61.9[-0.1].       Should be     63.3[0.0] by the 31st.

Reached 72 at Noon yesterday.

Today:  63-68, wind e. to se., variable clouds, 57 tomorrow AM.

58*(81%RH) here at 7am.     59* at 8am.      62* at 9am.      63* at Noon.      65* at 3pm.      66* at 4pm.     Reached 68* at 6pm.

[SACRUS]

 

Onshore winds from 50 now up to 60.   Cooler today before warming back near 80 in the warmer spots tomorrow Wed (5/24).  Then back cooler Thu (5/25) near 70.   

ULL / Cut offs one goes north and east the other backs west and to the south.  Caught in the middle as ridge builds over the top with easterly/southerly flow  Fri (5/26) - Memorial Day (5/29).   Onshore flow and likely overall near normal, coasts and beaches may be cooler.   The ULL soes move through near the region at some point between Memorial Day and next Wed.    

 

We'll see if we can sneak a vey warm day to open next month and if ridging can establish cleanly more east.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 96 (1964)
NYC: 94 (1964)
LGA: 94 (1964)

Lows:

 

EWR: 43 (1931)
NYC: 43 (1963)
LGA: 45 (1963)

Historical:

1882 - An unusual late season snow blanketed eastern Iowa, with four to six inches reported around Washington. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1953 - The temperature at Hollis OK soared from a morning low of 70 degrees to an afternoon high of 110 degrees to establish a state record for the month of May. (The Weather Channel)

1968: One of the costliest hailstorms in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma history pummeled the city on this date. Hail the size of baseballs fell over much of the city, resulting in more than 40,000 insurance claims over the 90,000 square mile path of the storm. The final cost was more than $20 million. The parent thunderstorm also caused flash flooding that left 2 to 4 feet of water in some underpasses and a lightning strike that started a fire that killed two people.

1987 - It was a busy day for thunderstorms in the central U.S. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Shreveport LA and golf ball size hail at Marfa, TX. Hobart, OK, received 3.55 inches of rain in the morning, and another 4.03 inches of rain that evening. Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced 8.5 inches of rain in two hours north of Potter, and 7.5 inches of rain in ninety minutes north of Minatare. Thunderstorms in Colorado produced five inches of hail at Greeley. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather across much of the eastern U.S. Golf ball size hail was reported in Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina and Ohio. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Severe thunderstorms developing along a cold front resulted in 98 reports of large hail and damaging winds in the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Golf ball size hail caused a million dollars damage around Buffalo City, WI, baseball size hail was reported at Northfield and Randolph, MN, and thunderstorm winds gusted to 95 mph at Dunkerton, IA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably hot weather continued in the south central U.S. Pueblo, CO, equalled their May record with a high of 98 degrees, and the high of 106 degrees at Midland, TX, marked a record six straight days of 100 degree heat. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - A cold front crossing the western U.S. produced snow over parts of Oregon, California, Nevada, Idaho and Utah, with five inches reported at Austin NV, and four inches at Crater Lake National Park in Oregon. Strong winds behind the cold front sharply reduced visibilities in blowing dust over central California, and two multi-vehicle accidents resulted in one death and eighteen injuries. In northern Idaho, a cloud-burst washed tons of topsoil, and rocks as large as footballs, into the valley town of Culdesac. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1997: David McWilliams Ludlum was born 1910 in East Orange, NJ - He is responsible for researching and publishing much of the early history of weather at the beginning of America. David died May 23, 1997, in Princeton, New Jersey. He was an American historian, meteorologist, entrepreneur, and author.