Picard Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 I'm pulling for the rain this weekend. Hopefully we see something. We'll also be covering or taking in some plants tonight. Freeze watch up for my area. They're saying as low as 28, probably out in the Walpack area. From fires to freezes, and back again if we don't get some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Way west with the rains Gfs still way east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 Cmc looks wet like rgem. Ukie dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 hooray for weak systems with convective nuances 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 Models cant even figure out a rainstorm now 3 days out? Pathetic 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: Models cant even figure out a rainstorm now 3 days out? Pathetic 54 minutes ago, forkyfork said: hooray for weak systems with convective nuances 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 Anyone know rain timing for Saturday on LI. Praying it won’t start until after 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, justinj said: Anyone know rain timing for Saturday on LI. Praying it won’t start until after 8am It may never start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 Euro stays wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 17, 2023 Author Share Posted May 17, 2023 25 minutes ago, justinj said: Anyone know rain timing for Saturday on LI. Praying it won’t start until after 8am New Euro is wet but it's slower more like a Sat eve start time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Horrible if true gfs temps are never accurate.. it is silly for him to post these clown maps..but that is his thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, nycwinter said: gfs temps are never accurate.. it is silly for him to post these clown maps..but that is his thing... Looks like a toasty memorial day weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 Some spots could approach record lows tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 Beautiful day. Just watered the garden so I’m sure we’ll get a ton of rain this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 Freeze and frost warning for most of the area away from the water. I'm thinking upper 30s in my backyard with possible spotty frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 17, 2023 Author Share Posted May 17, 2023 Record low at BDR is 41....I would think that is gone. DP is currently 21 there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 Tonight will be an unseasonably cool night. Areas well to the north and west of New York City could even experience some light frost. In the City and nearby areas, readings will bottom out in the lower and middle 40s before rising to the lower 60s. A few locations including Bridgeport and White Plains could approach or set new daily record low readings. Records include: Bridgeport: 41°, 1983 and 1984 Islip: 38°, 2003 New Haven: 36°, 2003 Newark: 43°, 1955, 1983 and 2003 Poughkeepsie: 30°, 1983 White Plains: 39°, 1983 Readings will warm during the weekend, but some rain is possible. Some of the guidance suggests that temperatures could return to the 80s to close the month. Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Nevertheless, the guidance has persistently suggested that the month will end with a somewhat warmer than normal average. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was -11.40 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.964 today. On May 15 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.462 (RMM). The May 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.181 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.4° (0.2° above normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 Fairly late-in-the-season cold snap with freeze warnings (dark blue) up for the Poconos, Sussex, W. Passaic and the Hudson Valley N of the Tappan Zee (and almost everywhere N/W of there) and frost advisories (light blue) up for Morris, Hunterdon, Warren, and much of the rest of NE PA. Strong high pressure, clear skies and diminishing winds, allowing for strong radiational cooling will send temps plummeting below 32F in the warning areas and near 32F in the advisory areas. Could also possibly see scattered frost in areas like NW Somerset and N Bergen. Bring in any tender vegetation. Fortunately, the red flag warnings for fire risk for much of SNJ/Pine Barrens come down at 8 pm tonight, as winds die down. Apart from some showers on Saturday, our stretch of fantastic weather looks to continue through the end of next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 18z euro took the rain away…it is getting way to dry way to early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Some spots could approach record lows tonight. Yeah I’m betting I’ll touch the 30’s tonight based on that. It’s already cooling steadily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 In the words of nycwinter , I'm wearing my hoodie lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2023 Author Share Posted May 18, 2023 45 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 18z euro took the rain away…it is getting way to dry way to early Still wet east of NYC....but looks more like GFS and ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 41/25 here, with a 38 just up the road at slightly lower elevation. Still the lightest of breezes preventing the bottom from falling out just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 I would be surprised if it fell and nobody mentioned it (unless I missed seeing it) but the NYC record low for May 18th is one of the more recent (1973 41F) and was followed by a daily max of 59 F but the record low maximum was 53F in 1881, the second consecutive low max (17th was 52F and tied in 1915). Those occurred just five and six days after a record high max in 1881 of 93 (May 12) and I think this may be the fastest such turnaround with another similar one in early October of 1881 (88F Sep 28 and record low max 50F min 35F Oct 5th). The opposite sequence (record low max to high max) took only three days in June 1952 (62 22nd, 99 25th). Since the 41F on May 18, 1973, the lowest minimum at NYC was 42F in 1976 with 43F in 1983, 2002 (46F 2003). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pequest Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 4:30 AM: Brrrr!! Down to 28 degrees so far this morning in central Warren County. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 31 at 5 am in highland mills eastern Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 28 will probably do it here. Annoying and rather impressive for the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 38F this morning. Likely our last 30s until October. We start our summer pattern by Memorial day weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 Numerous records have been set or tied, including Allentown, Bridgeport, Islip (tied), New Haven, and White Plains (tied). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 My low was 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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