May 2023

[donsutherland1]

Under brilliant sunshine, the temperature rose into the lower and middle 70s across the region today. Tomorrow will see somewhat warmer readings.

Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest heat dome continues to bring record heat to that region. Daily records include:

Astoria, OR: 91° (old record: 87°, 2014) ***Tied first-half May record***
Brookings, OR: 88° (old record: 74°, 1922)
Hoquiam, WA: 89° (old record: 84°, 2014) ***Tied May record***
North Bend, OR: 95° (old record: 82°, 2014)
Olympia: 89° (tied record set in 1973)
Salem, OR: 93° (old record: 92°, 1939)
Quillayute, WA: 91° (old record: 83°, 2014)

Earlier today, Portland recorded a daily low temperature of 62°. That tied May 14, 1997 for the earliest 60° or above minimum temperature. That also tied the monthly record of 62°, which was set on May 28, 1983 and tied on May 31, 1986 and May 17, 2008. Portland also recorded only its second May heatwave on record.

Quillayute's 2 consecutive 90° or above temperatures was the earliest such stretch on record. The previous record was set during June 25-26, 2006. The two 90° days also set a new record for most such days in May.

In British Columbia, Cultus Lake and Squamish reached 95°, setting daily records.

Near record and record heat will continue in parts of the Pacific Northwest through tomorrow. Even as the heat slowly abates afterward, readings will remain much above normal through much of the week.

The generally above normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday. Afterward, a cool front will bring somewhat cooler than normal readings to the region. Readings will likely average near or just below normal through the remainder of the week.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Whether that will be the case this year remains to be seen. For now, the outcome is far too close to call with the sensitivity analysis showing a almost a "coin toss" outcome. However, some of the more recent guidance has begun to tilt toward a warmer outcome. Uncertainty persists for second half of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around May 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -15.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.918 today.

On May 12 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.081 (RMM). The May 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.341 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.4° (0.2° above normal).

 

[lee59]

Frost advisories for much of interior NY and northern Pa.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    62degs.(53/71) or -2.

Month to date is    62.0[+1.0].       Should be    62.0[-0.1] by the 23rd.

Reached 69 here yesterday.

Today:   72-75, wind w. to s. near me, p. sunny, 59 tomorrow AM.

56*(46%RH) here at 7am.     60* at 9am.       65* at Noon       67* at 1pm.      70* at 3pm.       72* at 4pm.      75* at 5pm.     Reached 76* at 6pm.    69* at 8pm.

[lee59]

45 degrees here this morning.

[STORMANLI]

41°

Becoming dry and not looking for any rain of any consequence soon.

[SACRUS]

down to 43 and a lovely 63 and sunny.  A brilliant stretch of weather coming up overall the next 9 days.  No real push in either direction. But continue to dry out. Outside some clouds and showers this coming weekend (5/20-21) overall sunny and near normal.   Tue (5/16) looks to be the warmest day in the bunch with some 80s.  Wed (5/17) and Thu (5/18) the coolest staying below 70 and 40s at night.  Rain on the weekend looks to wait till Sat nigh into Sun. So perhaps not a full washout.  Beyond there hints of a more onshore/southerly flow before ridging builds by Memorial day.  

[winterwx21]

Last night's Euro gave us a good amount of rain saturday night into sunday morning. Hopefully it's right, because it's very dry out there. Not a drop of rain since I planted tomatoes and warm weather vegetables a week and a half ago. As MANDA said, it's a terrible weather pattern for gardeners. Having to water very often to keep the plants in good shape. Hopefully saturday night into sunday will work out because it's our only chance. The situation will be very bad if that doesn't happen. 

[MANDA]

11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Last night's Euro gave us a good amount of rain saturday night into sunday morning. Hopefully it's right, because it's very dry out there. Not a drop of rain since I planted tomatoes and warm weather vegetables a week and a half ago. As MANDA said, it's a terrible weather pattern for gardeners. Having to water very often to keep the plants in good shape. Hopefully saturday night into sunday will work out because it's our only chance. The situation will be very bad if that doesn't happen. 

Agreed.  I sure hope Saturday late into Sunday can produce but not overly optimistic.   The lawn on the south facing side of my house is starting to "crisp" and top soil is very dry in the garden beds.  Need almost daily watering.  Thankfully pattern is keeping temperatures in check because if we were into m/u 80's with this dry pattern it would be worse.  Reservoir levels are fine.  Ag and home gardeners are having to water on a regular basis at this point.

[Stormlover74]

17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Last night's Euro gave us a good amount of rain saturday night into sunday morning. Hopefully it's right, because it's very dry out there. Not a drop of rain since I planted tomatoes and warm weather vegetables a week and a half ago. As MANDA said, it's a terrible weather pattern for gardeners. Having to water very often to keep the plants in good shape. Hopefully saturday night into sunday will work out because it's our only chance. The situation will be very bad if that doesn't happen. 

The gfs shows Saturday night, Sunday would be a washout on the euro 

[winterwx21]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The gfs shows Saturday night, Sunday would be a washout on the euro 

And last night's CMC gave us nothing at all for the weekend. Hopefully GFS and Euro are right about the weekend rain, but obviously it's too far out there to be confident about it. 

[bluewave]

Could be our first year with an April max higher than May since 2009. 
 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Apr	May	Season
2023	93	90	93
2022	88	98	98
2021	89	96	96
2020	69	86	86
2019	80	90	90
2018	84	94	94
2017	87	94	94
2016	83	96	96
2015	82	91	91
2014	83	88	88
2013	85	94	94
2012	88	92	92
2011	87	92	92
2010	92	95	95
2009	93	87	93

[Brian5671]

Let's hope this summer doesn't follow the path of 2009...just awful in June especially and even July was very cool

[Stormlover74]

Gfs quite wet Saturday.  Cmc dry until Sunday evening

[Picard]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Let's hope this summer doesn't follow the path of 2009...just awful in June especially and even July was very cool

Wasn't there a Memorial Day Blizzard in the high peaks of the Adirondacks that year?  Or was it another year more recently?  I just remember being out one night that weekend and it was windy, overcast, raw, and in the mid-40s at best, living in Morris County at the time.  Heat back on on the house, and very much unlike Memorial Day.  Didn't do much that weekend except card and board games inside.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 92 (2018)
NYC: 90 (1900)
LGA: 92 (2018)


Lows:

EWR: 43 (1947)
NYC: 42 (1947)
LGA: 43 (1947)

Hisotrical:

 

1834 - The Northern Atlantic Coast States were in the midst of their greatest May snowstorm of record. The hills around Newbury, VT, were covered with two to three feet of snow. (David Ludlum)

 

1896: An estimated F5 tornado struck Sherman, Texas, killing 73 people; 60 of them in downtown. Tornado victims were found as far as 400 yards away from their original location. A trunk lid was carried 35 miles by the twister. 

 

1957: An F4 tornado killed 20 people in Silverton, Texas. A 5,000-pound gasoline storage tank was reportedly carried 1.5 miles and dropped into a lake. Residents said the tornado "looked like red sand, boiling and rumbling."

1968 - A tornado touched down southwest of Anchorage, AK. It was the second of just three tornadoes reported in Alaska since 1950. (The Weather Channel)

 

1968: Also, an F5 tornado moved through Butler, Chickasaw, Floyd, Franklin, and Howard Counties in northeast Iowa. The tornado touched down northeast from north of Hansell, passing east of Aredale and Marble Rock, before devastating Charles City. The tornado grew more massive and intense as it approached Charles City. The huge funnel passed directly through town, destroying 337 homes, and causing about $30 million in damage. The tornado continued to the northeast hitting Elma. From there the tornado turned to the north and dissipated south of Chester, 4 miles south of the Minnesota border. Nearly 2000 homes were damaged or destroyed. All 13 deaths occurred in Floyd County. 450 injuries were reported in Floyd County and 12 injuries in Howard County. Another F5 tornado moved north-northeast from southwest of Oelwein to Maynard and east of Randalia in Fayette County, IA. Homes were leveled and swept away in both Oelwein and Maynard. The warning sirens had sounded for only 15 seconds before the power failed in Oelwein. Nearly 1000 homes were damaged or destroyed along the path, and 34 people had to be hospitalized. Almost 1,000 families were affected. In addition to these F5 tornadoes, an F2 tornado touched down 6 miles south of Cresco, IA and two weak F1 tornadoes touched down in Dodge County, MN. Also, baseball size hail fell in Fayette County, IA.

1972 - The worst ice jam flooding of memory for long-time residents took place along the Kuskokwim River and Yukon River in Alaska. It was the first time since 1890 that the two rivers "flowed as one". The towns of Oscarville and Napaskiak were completely inundated. (15th-31st) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Unseasonably warm weather returned to the north central U.S. Seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Janestown, ND, with a reading of 96 degrees. Thunderstorms in Utah produced five inches of rain south of Bicknell. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced wind gusts to 80 mph in Oklahoma County, and baseball size hail at Pawnee. Hail piled up to a depth of 18 inches south of Pawnee. Hail damage in Oklahoma was estimated at close to 25 million dollars. Thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest produced golf ball size hail around Cleveland, OH, and wind gusts to 83 mph at Angola, IN. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing along and north of a stationary front produced severe weather in the south central U.S. Thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, and there were 145 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Softball size hail caused 2.1 million dollars damage at Sherman, TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Central Plains Region and Oklahoma to Indiana and western Kentucky. Thunderstorms spawned fifteen tornadoes, including seven in Oklahoma, and there were 165 reports of large hail or damaging winds. A tornado killed one person, injured a dozen others, and caused four million dollars damage at Stillwater, OK. Another tornado injured eight persons at Foyil, OK. Thunderstorms in Oklahoma also produced wind gusts to 92 mph at Oologah Lake, and softball size hail at Canton and north of Oakwood. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, Picard said:

Wasn't there a Memorial Day Blizzard in the high peaks of the Adirondacks that year?  Or was it another year more recently?  I just remember being out one night that weekend and it was windy, overcast, raw, and in the mid-40s at best, living in Morris County at the time.  Heat back on on the house, and very much unlike Memorial Day.  Didn't do much that weekend except card and board games inside.

That was 2013.

 

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That was 2013.

 

That was awful too but at least it was just a few days-I remember as the front came through temps fell during the day-rare for late May.

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That was awful too but at least it was just a few days-I remember as the front came through temps fell during the day-rare for late May.

Top 10 coldest for late May.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature May 25 to May 31	Missing Count
1	1949-05-31	39	0
2	1936-05-31	40	0
3	1961-05-31	42	0
-	1956-05-31	42	0
4	1967-05-31	43	0
-	1935-05-31	43	0
5	1938-05-31	44	0
6	1992-05-31	45	0
-	1963-05-31	45	0
-	1945-05-31	45	0
-	1940-05-31	45	0
7	2013-05-31	46	0
-	1947-05-31	46	0
-	1946-05-31	46	0

 

[Picard]

That was a rarity that year (2013), especially since all of the other Top lows ranked are much earlier in the 20th century, with the exception of 1992.

[Stormlover74]

Euros a washout now Saturday afternoon and overnight 

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs quite wet Saturday.  Cmc dry until Sunday evening

I see Euro now brings the rain in much earlier too. A lot of rain saturday afternoon on the 12z Euro. Maybe saturday is gonna be the rainy day instead of sunday, but still a ways to go before we figure out the timing. 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I see Euro now brings the rain in much earlier too. A lot of rain saturday afternoon on the 12z Euro. Maybe saturday is gonna be the rainy day instead of sunday, but still a ways to go before we figure out the timing. 

Need some rain to wash away pollen but yet another weekend storm...

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Need some rain to wash away pollen but yet another weekend storm...

Yeah I'd rather not have it on the weekend, but I'll gladly take it since we really need the rain. It's very dry out there ... we haven't had anything at all since that heavy rain event at the end of April. Hopefully Euro will be right about heavy rain saturday afternoon into saturday night. 

[MANDA]

23 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah I'd rather not have it on the weekend, but I'll gladly take it since we really need the rain. It's very dry out there ... we haven't had anything at all since that heavy rain event at the end of April. Hopefully Euro will be right about heavy rain saturday afternoon into saturday night. 

I'd like to see the CMC come on board.  Red flag until it does.  It and the EURO are night and day.  CMC is not the crap model the GFS is so until it starts to generate some qpf I'm not buying into the robust EURO.  CMC seems more plausible given the overall pattern.  Maybe not zero QPF but something less than the EURO is generating with time.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I'd like to see the CMC come on board.  Red flag until it does.  It and the EURO are night and day.  CMC is not the crap model the GFS is so until it starts to generate some qpf I'm not buying into the robust EURO.  CMC seems more plausible given the overall pattern.  Maybe not zero QPF but something less than the EURO is generating with time.

Need the southern stream low to keep moving on the Euro for heavier rains instead of getting suppressed like the CMC. 

 

[forkyfork]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Need the southern stream low to keep moving on the Euro for heavier rains instead of getting suppressed like the CMC. 

 

the cmc moved toward the euro compared to its previous runs

[Brian5671]

36 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the cmc moved toward the euro compared to its previous runs

ICON too

[winterwx21]

It hit 77 here today. Spectacular weather with 100% sunshine and dewpoints in the low 30s. Probably a top 10 day of the year. 

[Picard]

Walpack, NJ today recorded Min 32/Max 77.

32 was the state low.  77 tied three others for the state high.  

I had 39/77 here.  Obviously, mine isn't official.

[donsutherland1]

After a comfortable night, tomorrow will be partly cloudy and warm. Temperatures will top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Noticeably cooler air will arrive tomorrow night.

Today was another day of record heat in the Pacific Northwest. Records included:

Bellingham, WA: 86° (old record: 80°, 2014)
Olympia: 92° (old record: 85°, 2007)
Port Angeles: 86° (old record: 75°, 2014) ***New May record***
Quillayute, WA: 86° (old record: 85°, 2006)
Seattle: 88° (old record: 85°, 2007)
Shelton, WA: 90° (old record: 88°, 2006)

Portland reached 90° or above for a record 4th day in May. The 4-day heatwave was the earliest 4-day heatwave on record. The old record was set during June 4-7, 2003.

Meanwhile, even as the heat slowly abates in the Pacific Northwest, readings will remain much above normal through much of the week.

The generally above normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday. Afterward, a cool front will bring somewhat cooler than normal readings to the region. Readings will likely average near or just below normal through the remainder of the week.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Whether that will be the case this year remains to be seen. For now, the outcome is far too close to call with the sensitivity analysis showing a almost a "coin toss" outcome. However, some of the more recent guidance has begun to tilt toward a warmer outcome. Uncertainty persists for second half of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -12.47 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.925 today.

On May 13 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.205 (RMM). The May 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.088 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.3° (0.1° above normal).