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May Discobs 2023


George BM
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  On 5/21/2023 at 7:07 PM, CAPE said:

Looking forward to Tuesday and Wed. Weather looks incredible, and I will be at Rehoboth- ahead of the Memorial day weekend madness.B)

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Yeah, and before the possible washout.  Man if this happens to this weekend after so many nice days in a row, people are gonna be mad!  From LWX:

...there has been a trend toward unsettled conditions for the weekend...In fact, there is a
possibility for coastal low pressure to impact the area, which would further enhance the threat
for rain, some which could be heavy
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  On 5/22/2023 at 8:38 PM, MN Transplant said:

Just like April, we are going to need a late stick save to stop this from being one of the driest Mays on record.  2nd place right now (0.43”) at DCA and nothing in store until the weekend.

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Go ahead and say which previous Springs got off to similar dry starts

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  On 5/22/2023 at 8:45 PM, aldie 22 said:

Go ahead and say which previous Springs got off to similar dry starts

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Not many, to be honest. 1963 and 1986 were pretty dry in April and May, though we of course got the big soaking at the end of April this year to bring us above average for the month.

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Pretty good write up from Mount Holly on the uncertainty with the weekend weather-

The forecast for the much-anticipated holiday weekend remains uncertain. A cutoff upper level low is expected to develop over the southeastern US with an area of surface low pressure forming near the Carolina coast. The evolution of the surface low and its progression north will determine the sensible weather for our region. It is worth noting that past few guidance suites have trended a bit drier for our region. This is due to surface high pressure setting up just to the north of our region as upper level ridging builds north of the cutoff low. This keeps the surface low more towards the south rather than coming up the East Coast. This weekend does not look like a washout but each day currently features around 20-40% chance of rain. Did undercut NBM PoPs a bit to account for the drier trend among guidance. However, upper level lows can be tricky to forecast, and would expect shifts over the next few days in the exact location of where the low sets up.

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  On 5/22/2023 at 8:45 PM, aldie 22 said:

Go ahead and say which previous Springs got off to similar dry starts

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An interesting analog is 1986.  Very dry first half of the year with a dying Nina.  Then precip normalized as we went through the second half of the year into a Nino, culminating in a nice winter.

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