May 2023 General Discussion

[CheeselandSkies]

If it ain't gonna in May, it might as well be like this:

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 50. West wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday

A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Sunny, with a high near 78. West wind 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night

A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 43. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 67. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 41. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 75. South wind 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday Night

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, then a chance of showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. South wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday

A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 70. Southwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday Night

A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.

Saturday

A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 50.

Sunday

A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 45.

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 71.

[bowtie`]

2 hours ago, Brian D said:

Smoky haze from CA wildfires moving through today, and sounds like tomorrow, too. Mixed in with clouds, this evening has a brown look to the sky.

Your air quality via AirNow.gov. 

Forecast Discussion: Mon, May 15, 2023: An Air Quality Alert for fine particles due to wildfire smoke is in effect beginning tomorrow, Tuesday, at 4 A.M. through tomorrow at 4 p.m. for northern Minnesota. Fire activity has ramped up in the past week across western Canada. A band of smoke has been moving east across Canada for the past several days. A cold front will dive south tonight and pull this smoke towards Minnesota. Sinking air behind the front is expected to bring this smoke to the surface, creating poor air quality conditions.

 

[Torchageddon]

The smoke is so dense this morning that I woke up to what appeared to be overcast when it was forecast to be clear . Its still showing clear/few clouds when its anything but. Getting tired of this.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Nice rainy weekend here, cool temps and needed moisture. Today looks warm, probably break above 80 degrees. Wildfire smoke from Canada is really noticeable today. We’ll see how thick it gets. Air quality alerts just north of here. Too early for this. 

[Brian D]

14 hours ago, bowtie` said:

Your air quality via AirNow.gov. 

Forecast Discussion: Mon, May 15, 2023: An Air Quality Alert for fine particles due to wildfire smoke is in effect beginning tomorrow, Tuesday, at 4 A.M. through tomorrow at 4 p.m. for northern Minnesota. Fire activity has ramped up in the past week across western Canada. A band of smoke has been moving east across Canada for the past several days. A cold front will dive south tonight and pull this smoke towards Minnesota. Sinking air behind the front is expected to bring this smoke to the surface, creating poor air quality conditions.

 

Smoke has cleared out here, but looks bad south of me around MSP.

[weatherbo]

33 minutes ago, Brian D said:

Smoke has cleared out here, but looks bad south of me around MSP.

 Smokefree blue skies but boy is it chilly, only 43 with a windchill in the upper 30's at 2 pm.

[TheClimateChanger]

42 minutes ago, Brian D said:

Smoke has cleared out here, but looks bad south of me around MSP.

Hazy all the way down here in Pennsylvania, as it has been off and on for past week or so. I almost wonder if this will cause a volcanic winter / year without a summer. What is causing all of this wildfire smoke? I've never seen such extensive wildfires in that region in early-mid May. Almost like they are being deliberately set to coincide with peak sun angle / longest days of the year to try and offset/hide the global warming with the looming strong El Nino.

[bowtie`]

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 Almost like they are being deliberately set to coincide with peak sun angle / longest days of the year to try and offset/hide the global warming with the looming strong El Nino.

Ummmmmmm, no.

[TheClimateChanger]

11 minutes ago, bowtie` said:

Ummmmmmm, no.

I'd welcome alternative explanations, but I've certainly never seen anything like this in the month of May in my 36 years on earth. July through September, maybe. But May? Look at this, the smoke layer is about to circumnavigate the globe like volcanic aersols. At the same time, there's a smoky front dropping south across the U.S. with some sort of smoke-filled cyclone brewing in western Canada amid massive flare-ups from seemingly dozens of point sources spread across 3 Canadian provinces.

[bowtie`]

Hot, dry and windy conditions before significant green out that far north and all you need is a spark or two and it is Katty-bar-the door.

[Chicago Storm]

Hazy all the way down here in Pennsylvania, as it has been off and on for past week or so. I almost wonder if this will cause a volcanic winter / year without a summer. What is causing all of this wildfire smoke? I've never seen such extensive wildfires in that region in early-mid May. Almost like they are being deliberately set to coincide with peak sun angle / longest days of the year to try and offset/hide the global warming with the looming strong El Nino.

lol


.

[Brian D]

2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

 Smokefree blue skies but boy is it chilly, only 43 with a windchill in the upper 30's at 2 pm.

Mid 50's here imby, but a little cooler along the lakeshore with a NE wind. Sky Harbor arpt on Park Point is running mid 40's. Chilly day, but dandelions are popping out today, so Spring is springing, albeit a little slow, but that's northern wx for ya.  

[Brian D]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I'd welcome alternative explanations, but I've certainly never seen anything like this in the month of May in my 36 years on earth. July through September, maybe. But May? Look at this, the smoke layer is about to circumnavigate the globe like volcanic aersols. At the same time, there's a smoky front dropping south across the U.S. with some sort of smoke-filled cyclone brewing in western Canada amid massive flare-ups from seemingly dozens of point sources spread across 3 Canadian provinces.

Occam's razor. It all natural. The conditions happened to be just right for fires, and some lightning strikes set them off. There's always potential for arson, but they are in a remote area, so less likely intentional. And the smoke will have some effect on weather conditions, but nothing as bad as a cooling effect on the climate as a volcano can produce. It'll wash out of the atmosphere pretty quickly.

[Torchageddon]

At least the dense smoke cleared here but its windy and cold at 13C nearly. The heat is already coming on and its only 5:30pm.

[luckyweather]

Prairie fires were more common in the fall pre-settlement but certainly happened in the spring if there hadn’t been one the prior fall.

Pre settlement large expanses of the plains and Canadian prairies could burn pretty much in one big go. Fires of a scale simply unimaginable and unprecedented in modern times. So while post settlement wildfires are certainly bad for life and property, they aren’t a new phenomenon and actually much smaller scale than they were before man’s impact on the land.

[SolidIcewx]

Definitely smoky out right now

[cyclone77]

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/af5ee7dc-5f6f-427c-b835-554b88ede90b

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Kinda ended up being an overcast day with all the smoke. I can’t remember seeing it this bad this early but nothing unprecedented. 
 

We did manage to get up to 81 today. Backdoor cold front coming tonight will cool us off some. 

[MNstorms]

5 hours ago, Brian D said:

Smoke has cleared out here, but looks bad south of me around MSP.

Looked straight up cloudy for a bit. Made it feel not as hot out. Sun wasn't even peaking out.

[SolidIcewx]

Going to be some amazing sunsets across the southern lakes

[Chinook]

This has got to be forest fire smoke. It's a red sun tonight. The HRRR says the vertically integrated smoke is zero, but that's wrong.

[TheClimateChanger]

14 hours ago, luckyweather said:

Prairie fires were more common in the fall pre-settlement but certainly happened in the spring if there hadn’t been one the prior fall.

Pre settlement large expanses of the plains and Canadian prairies could burn pretty much in one big go. Fires of a scale simply unimaginable and unprecedented in modern times. So while post settlement wildfires are certainly bad for life and property, they aren’t a new phenomenon and actually much smaller scale than they were before man’s impact on the land.

Exactly - prairie fires, i.e. grass and brush. I would be interested more in the total weight of biomass burning versus the number of acres. Maybe 10x the number of acres burned, but it couldn’t produce the quantity of smoke that these modern wildfires produce. Otherwise, there would almost certainly be a thick pall of smoke making it all the way across the Atlantic each summer. This would call it into question the significance of dry fogs and red sunsets that are used to detect ancient volcanic eruptions - they would have been an annual occurrence. Moreover, if smoke from the Americas had been present, the Europeans would have known a vast continent must exist to the west but they didn’t, which to me would strongly imply smoke from the Americas never reached Europe in significant quantities.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Crisp smoke filled sky this morning. Had a beautiful red sunrise.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Exactly - prairie fires, i.e. grass and brush. I would be interested more in the total weight of biomass burning versus the number of acres. Maybe 10x the number of acres burned, but it couldn’t produce the quantity of smoke that these modern wildfires produce. Otherwise, there would almost certainly be a thick pall of smoke making it all the way across the Atlantic each summer. This would call it into question the significance of dry fogs and red sunsets that are used to detect ancient volcanic eruptions - they would have been an annual occurrence. Moreover, if smoke from the Americas had been present, the Europeans would have known a vast continent must exist to the west but they didn’t, which to me would strongly imply smoke from the Americas never reached Europe in significant quantities.

Some context from GPT:

Question:

What is the history of pre-Columbian wildfires in North America?

Response: 

The history of pre-Columbian wildfires in North America is a topic of ongoing research and study. Prior to European contact and the arrival of Christopher Columbus in the Americas in 1492, indigenous peoples had inhabited the continent for thousands of years. These indigenous communities had a significant influence on the landscape, including the use of fire as a land management tool.

Pre-Columbian wildfires, often referred to as anthropogenic or cultural fires, were intentionally set by indigenous peoples for various reasons, including hunting, agriculture, and resource management. These fires played a crucial role in shaping and maintaining ecosystems across North America.

Indigenous peoples used fire to modify the landscape to their advantage. They employed controlled burns to clear underbrush, promote the growth of desired plant species, and maintain grasslands for grazing animals. These practices helped prevent larger, catastrophic wildfires by reducing the accumulation of dead vegetation and fuel loads.

The effects of pre-Columbian wildfires can still be seen today. Many ecosystems in North America, such as the Great Plains and the Southeastern United States, evolved with fire as a natural part of their ecological processes. Certain plant species, including grasses and fire-tolerant trees, have adapted to and rely on periodic burning for their regeneration and overall health.

However, with European colonization and the subsequent displacement and marginalization of indigenous peoples, these traditional land management practices were disrupted or suppressed. As a result, fire regimes in many areas changed, leading to altered ecosystems and increased risks of larger, more destructive wildfires.

Today, there is a growing recognition of the importance of integrating indigenous knowledge and land management practices, including controlled burns, into modern conservation efforts. Collaborative initiatives are being developed to restore and maintain fire-adapted ecosystems, promoting ecological health while respecting the cultural heritage and land stewardship practices of indigenous communities.

Question:

How did the total annual acreage burned before European settlement compare to today?

Response: 

Determining the precise extent of annual acreage burned before European settlement in North America is challenging due to limited historical records and varying ecological conditions. However, researchers have attempted to estimate the differences between pre-Columbian fire regimes and modern wildfire patterns.

Several studies suggest that the total annual acreage burned in pre-Columbian times was likely higher compared to today. Indigenous peoples' intentional use of fire for land management purposes, such as clearing vegetation and promoting specific plant species, created a patchwork of burned areas across the landscape. These smaller, controlled burns helped prevent the buildup of excessive fuel loads and resulted in more frequent, low-intensity fires.

One notable research paper published in the journal "Fire Ecology" in 2016 estimated that pre-Columbian indigenous burning in what is now the United States may have affected approximately 34.8 million hectares (86 million acres) annually. This estimate exceeds the average annual acreage burned in recent years in the United States, which has ranged from 4 to 10 million hectares (10 to 25 million acres), with significant variability due to factors like weather conditions and land use practices.

It's important to note that regional variations existed in pre-Columbian fire regimes. For example, areas with predominantly grasslands or open forests, like the Great Plains and the Southeastern United States, likely experienced more frequent fires compared to densely forested regions.

However, it is worth mentioning that comparing pre-Columbian fire regimes to modern wildfire patterns is complex due to changes in land use, fire suppression policies, climate, and other factors since European settlement. Modern land management practices, including fire suppression and landscape fragmentation, have disrupted traditional fire regimes, resulting in altered fuel loads and ecosystem dynamics.

While the precise acreage comparisons are challenging, it is generally accepted that pre-Columbian fire regimes played a significant role in shaping North American landscapes, and efforts are underway to integrate indigenous knowledge and practices into contemporary land management strategies to mitigate the risks of larger and more destructive wildfires.

Question:

Is there any historical evidence for smoke from pre-Columbian wildfires reaching continental Europe?

Response: 

There is no direct historical evidence to suggest that smoke from pre-Columbian wildfires in North America reached continental Europe. The distance between the continents, combined with the dispersion and dilution of smoke particles over such a vast expanse of ocean, makes it highly unlikely for the smoke to have traveled that far and been detectable in Europe.

It's important to note that the technology and means of communication during pre-Columbian times were limited compared to today. Historical records from that era are scarce, and there is no documented evidence or accounts of smoke from North American wildfires reaching Europe during that time.

Smoke particles from large-scale wildfires can indeed be carried over long distances by atmospheric currents, but the dispersion and dilution processes generally result in significantly reduced smoke concentrations as the distance increases. It is more common for smoke from large wildfires to impact nearby regions or potentially cross smaller bodies of water, but the chances of it reaching across the Atlantic Ocean to Europe are extremely remote.

It is worth mentioning that there may have been other natural phenomena or events, such as volcanic eruptions or dust storms, that could have transported particles to Europe from North America, but these would be unrelated to pre-Columbian wildfires.

In summary, there is no historical evidence to support the idea that smoke from pre-Columbian wildfires in North America reached continental Europe.

Question:

Is there evidence for smoke from wildfires in recent years reaching Europe?

Response: 

Yes, there is evidence to suggest that smoke from wildfires in recent years has reached Europe. The transport of smoke particles over long distances is influenced by atmospheric conditions, wind patterns, and the size and intensity of the wildfires. While most of the smoke from wildfires tends to remain localized and affect nearby areas, under certain conditions, it can be carried over vast distances.

In recent years, large-scale wildfires, such as those in North America, Siberia, and Australia, have produced significant amounts of smoke that have been transported across continents and even reached Europe. The smoke plumes can be detected through satellite imagery, air quality monitoring stations, and atmospheric modeling.

For example, in 2017 and 2018, wildfires in North America, particularly in western Canada and the western United States, produced substantial smoke that traveled across the Atlantic Ocean and affected parts of Europe. Satellite images showed the presence of smoke aerosols over Europe, and air quality monitors detected elevated levels of particulate matter related to the wildfires.

Similarly, during the devastating Australian bushfire season in late 2019 and early 2020, smoke plumes were observed to travel across the Pacific Ocean and reach South America and even parts of Africa.

These instances demonstrate that, under certain conditions, smoke from large-scale wildfires can indeed be transported over long distances and impact regions far away from the source of the fires. However, it's important to note that the concentration and impact of the smoke diminishes as it travels, and it may become more diluted and less harmful compared to areas closer to the wildfires.

[TheClimateChanger]

So, GPT confirms there is no historical evidence of smoke from North American wildfires reaching Europe, but there is evidence of smoke from wildfires in recent years doing so. GPT cites 2017 and 2018, but we can see this also occurred in 2020 and 2021.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/smoke-west-coast-wildfires-travels-europe/story?id=73071098

https://phys.org/news/2021-06-californian-drifted-europe-heavy-clouding.html

https://www.discovermagazine.com/environment/the-view-from-space-as-wildfire-smoke-smothers-large-swaths-of-north-america#:~:text=On July 17%2C 2021%2C smoke from North American,red in this map of the smoke distribution.

GPT could find no historical record to suggest this ever occurred in pre-Columbian times, and I'm unaware of any evidence to the contrary. Recent fire and smoke behavior appears to me to be, quite literally, unprecedented. I just don't see how smoke could have ever reached Europe in the quantities observed in 2020 and 2021, because that would have essentially proved the existence of a vast continent to the west, but they had no knowledge of the existence of such a continent.

[TheClimateChanger]

Some interesting METARs today with the smoke:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Airport reporting overcast skies from smoke [FU] at 15,000 feet.

KMSP 171353Z 14011KT 10SM OVC150 13/07 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP165 FU OVC150 T01280072

Des Moines, IA reporting overcast skies from smoke at 20,000 feet.

KDSM 171354Z 07007KT 10SM FEW120 OVC200 17/11 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP143 FU OVC200 T01670111

The surface visibility at Grand Forks is down to 6 statute miles with smoke and haze.

KGFK 171353Z 18015G22KT 6SM HZ FU FEW070 BKN250 18/08 A2983 RMK AO2 SLP102 T01830083

[Jonger]

Who keeps lighting these fires.

[Jonger]

18 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Kinda ended up being an overcast day with all the smoke. I can’t remember seeing it this bad this early but nothing unprecedented. 
 

We did manage to get up to 81 today. Backdoor cold front coming tonight will cool us off some. 

My weather station recorded it's highest UV rating back in early May..... smoke has kept the higher sun angle from registering a higher reading since then.

[Brian D]

3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Some context from GPT:

Question:

What is the history of pre-Columbian wildfires in North America?

Response: 

The history of pre-Columbian wildfires in North America is a topic of ongoing research and study. Prior to European contact and the arrival of Christopher Columbus in the Americas in 1492, indigenous peoples had inhabited the continent for thousands of years. These indigenous communities had a significant influence on the landscape, including the use of fire as a land management tool.

Pre-Columbian wildfires, often referred to as anthropogenic or cultural fires, were intentionally set by indigenous peoples for various reasons, including hunting, agriculture, and resource management. These fires played a crucial role in shaping and maintaining ecosystems across North America.

Indigenous peoples used fire to modify the landscape to their advantage. They employed controlled burns to clear underbrush, promote the growth of desired plant species, and maintain grasslands for grazing animals. These practices helped prevent larger, catastrophic wildfires by reducing the accumulation of dead vegetation and fuel loads.

The effects of pre-Columbian wildfires can still be seen today. Many ecosystems in North America, such as the Great Plains and the Southeastern United States, evolved with fire as a natural part of their ecological processes. Certain plant species, including grasses and fire-tolerant trees, have adapted to and rely on periodic burning for their regeneration and overall health.

However, with European colonization and the subsequent displacement and marginalization of indigenous peoples, these traditional land management practices were disrupted or suppressed. As a result, fire regimes in many areas changed, leading to altered ecosystems and increased risks of larger, more destructive wildfires.

Today, there is a growing recognition of the importance of integrating indigenous knowledge and land management practices, including controlled burns, into modern conservation efforts. Collaborative initiatives are being developed to restore and maintain fire-adapted ecosystems, promoting ecological health while respecting the cultural heritage and land stewardship practices of indigenous communities.

Question:

How did the total annual acreage burned before European settlement compare to today?

Response: 

Determining the precise extent of annual acreage burned before European settlement in North America is challenging due to limited historical records and varying ecological conditions. However, researchers have attempted to estimate the differences between pre-Columbian fire regimes and modern wildfire patterns.

Several studies suggest that the total annual acreage burned in pre-Columbian times was likely higher compared to today. Indigenous peoples' intentional use of fire for land management purposes, such as clearing vegetation and promoting specific plant species, created a patchwork of burned areas across the landscape. These smaller, controlled burns helped prevent the buildup of excessive fuel loads and resulted in more frequent, low-intensity fires.

One notable research paper published in the journal "Fire Ecology" in 2016 estimated that pre-Columbian indigenous burning in what is now the United States may have affected approximately 34.8 million hectares (86 million acres) annually. This estimate exceeds the average annual acreage burned in recent years in the United States, which has ranged from 4 to 10 million hectares (10 to 25 million acres), with significant variability due to factors like weather conditions and land use practices.

It's important to note that regional variations existed in pre-Columbian fire regimes. For example, areas with predominantly grasslands or open forests, like the Great Plains and the Southeastern United States, likely experienced more frequent fires compared to densely forested regions.

However, it is worth mentioning that comparing pre-Columbian fire regimes to modern wildfire patterns is complex due to changes in land use, fire suppression policies, climate, and other factors since European settlement. Modern land management practices, including fire suppression and landscape fragmentation, have disrupted traditional fire regimes, resulting in altered fuel loads and ecosystem dynamics.

While the precise acreage comparisons are challenging, it is generally accepted that pre-Columbian fire regimes played a significant role in shaping North American landscapes, and efforts are underway to integrate indigenous knowledge and practices into contemporary land management strategies to mitigate the risks of larger and more destructive wildfires.

Question:

Is there any historical evidence for smoke from pre-Columbian wildfires reaching continental Europe?

Response: 

There is no direct historical evidence to suggest that smoke from pre-Columbian wildfires in North America reached continental Europe. The distance between the continents, combined with the dispersion and dilution of smoke particles over such a vast expanse of ocean, makes it highly unlikely for the smoke to have traveled that far and been detectable in Europe.

It's important to note that the technology and means of communication during pre-Columbian times were limited compared to today. Historical records from that era are scarce, and there is no documented evidence or accounts of smoke from North American wildfires reaching Europe during that time.

Smoke particles from large-scale wildfires can indeed be carried over long distances by atmospheric currents, but the dispersion and dilution processes generally result in significantly reduced smoke concentrations as the distance increases. It is more common for smoke from large wildfires to impact nearby regions or potentially cross smaller bodies of water, but the chances of it reaching across the Atlantic Ocean to Europe are extremely remote.

It is worth mentioning that there may have been other natural phenomena or events, such as volcanic eruptions or dust storms, that could have transported particles to Europe from North America, but these would be unrelated to pre-Columbian wildfires.

In summary, there is no historical evidence to support the idea that smoke from pre-Columbian wildfires in North America reached continental Europe.

Question:

Is there evidence for smoke from wildfires in recent years reaching Europe?

Response: 

Yes, there is evidence to suggest that smoke from wildfires in recent years has reached Europe. The transport of smoke particles over long distances is influenced by atmospheric conditions, wind patterns, and the size and intensity of the wildfires. While most of the smoke from wildfires tends to remain localized and affect nearby areas, under certain conditions, it can be carried over vast distances.

In recent years, large-scale wildfires, such as those in North America, Siberia, and Australia, have produced significant amounts of smoke that have been transported across continents and even reached Europe. The smoke plumes can be detected through satellite imagery, air quality monitoring stations, and atmospheric modeling.

For example, in 2017 and 2018, wildfires in North America, particularly in western Canada and the western United States, produced substantial smoke that traveled across the Atlantic Ocean and affected parts of Europe. Satellite images showed the presence of smoke aerosols over Europe, and air quality monitors detected elevated levels of particulate matter related to the wildfires.

Similarly, during the devastating Australian bushfire season in late 2019 and early 2020, smoke plumes were observed to travel across the Pacific Ocean and reach South America and even parts of Africa.

These instances demonstrate that, under certain conditions, smoke from large-scale wildfires can indeed be transported over long distances and impact regions far away from the source of the fires. However, it's important to note that the concentration and impact of the smoke diminishes as it travels, and it may become more diluted and less harmful compared to areas closer to the wildfires.

Yep, known this for some time. We have made things worse. Speaking of AUS, the natives there have tried to get the gov there to let them manage the forests, and do regular control burns so they don't have these massive fires, but the gov won't let them. I remember seeing some articles on this back in 2019/2020. Thanks for the info.

[Brian D]

A little hazy from the smoke today, but not bad. Looks like it has spread out across the sub, and thinned a bit, but out west across the border country, and W CA, still pretty thick.