May 2023 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict temperature anomalies for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAh _ DEN _ PhX _ SEA

relative to 1991-2020 normals. 

Deadline 06z Monday, May 1st. Good luck !

[wxallannj]

DCA   -1.0

NYC   -1.2

BOS   -1.0

ORD  +0.5

ATL   -0.5

IAH   -1.0

DEN  +2.5

PHX  +2.3

SEA  +1.5

 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA   -0.3

NYC   -0.4

BOS   -0.2

ORD  +0.2

ATL   -0.2

IAH   -0.6

DEN  +1.8

PHX  +1.8

SEA  +0.4

[Stormchaserchuck1]

DCA +1.8 NYC +1.8 BOS +1.8 ORD +2.0 ATL +2.0 IAh +1.5 DEN +2.0 PhX +2.0 SEA +2.4

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA
 -0.8   -0.1    0.7      -0.5    -1.7   -0.4     -0.1    -1.0    1.8 

[bkviking]

DCA   -1.1

NYC   -1.2

BOS   -0.8

ORD  +0.1

ATL   -0.2

IAH   -0.3

DEN  +1.3

PHX  +1.5

SEA  +0.8

[Rhino16]

DCA: -0.3

NYC: 0.4

BOS: 1.1

ORD: 0.1

ATL: -1.1

IAH: 0.1

DEN: 0.3

PHX: -0.4

SEA: 0.7

[Tom]

DCA   -0.8

NYC   -0.9

BOS   -0.9

ORD  -0.6

ATL   -0.7

IAH   -0.6

DEN  +1.1

PHX  +1.6

SEA  +1.2

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAh _ DEN _ PhX _ SEA

1.0       1.0      1.0       1.0      1.5    1.5     1.0      1.5      1.0

[wxdude64]

DCA:  -0.6

NYC:  -0.2

BOS:  +0.3

ORD:  +0.3

ATL:  -0.9

IAH:  +0.3

DEN:  +0.7

PHX:  -1.4

SEA:  +1.2

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAh _ DEN _ PhX _ SEA

-2.1     -0.9   -0.2     -3.9    -1.7    1.2     0.9    -1.2     -0.7

[Rjay]

DCA   0.0

NYC   +1.0

BOS   +1.0

ORD  +1.0

ATL   0.0

IAH   +1.0

DEN  0.0

PHX  0.0

SEA  +1.5

[Roger Smith]

-2.5 _ -2.3 _ -2.0 __ -2.7 _ -2.7 _ -1.0 __ +3.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.5

[Roger Smith]

 

Table of forecasts for May 2023

 

FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

StormchaserChuck1 ___________ +1.8 _ +1.8 _ +1.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.4

Scotty Lightning ________________+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0

RJay ____________________________ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ +1.5

___ Normal _______________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

Rhino16 _________________________-0.3 _ +0.4 _+1.1 __ +0.1 __-1.1 __+0.1 ___ +0.3 _ -0.4 _ +0.7

hudsonvalley21 _________________ -0.3 _ -0.4 _-0.2 __ +0.2 _ -0.2 _ -0.6 __ +1.8 _ +1.8 _ +0.4

wxdude64 ______________________-0.6 _ -0.2 _ +0.3 __ +0.3 _-0.9 _ +0.3 __ +0.7 _ -1.4 _ +1.2

___ Consensus __________________ -0.7 _ -0.2 _ +0.3 __ +0.2 _ -0.5 _ -0.1 __ +1.1 _ +1.5 _ +1.2

DonSutherland1 _________________-0.8 _ -0.1 _ +0.7 __ -0.5 _ -1.7 _ -0.4 ___ -0.1 _ -1.0 _ +1.8

Tom _____________________________-0.8 _ -0.9 _ -0.9 __ -0.6 _ -0.7 _ -0.6 ___ +1.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.2

wxallannj ________________________-1.0 _ -1.2 _ -1.0 __ +0.5 _ -0.5 _ -1.0 ___ +2.5 _ +2.3 _ +1.5

BKViking ________________________-1.1 __ -1.2 _ -0.8 __ +0.1 _ -0.2 _ -0.3 ___ +1.3 _ +1.5 _ +0.8

RodneyS _______________________ -2.1 __ -0.9 _ -0.2 __ -3.9 _ -1.7 _ +1.2 ___ +0.9 _ -1.2 _ -0.7 

Roger Smith ____________________-2.5 _ -2.3 __ -2.0 __ -2.7 _ -2.7 _ -1.0 ___ +3.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.5

--- --- 

Persistence __ (Apr 2023) _____________ 3.9 _+3.9 _+2.2 ______ +2.0 _+0.3 _-1.9 ________ 0.0 _+1.1 _-2.8

_________________________________________________

 

Color codes for high and low forecasts. 

[Roger Smith]

Updates on anomalies and projections: 

 

__________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

_11th ___ (10d anom) _____ -4.4 _ -2.2 _ +1.4 __ +1.5 _ -1.4 _ -0.5 ___ +5.0 _ -1.6 _ +0.4

_21st ___ (20d anom) _____-2.1 _ -0.1 _ +2.9 __ +1.5 _ +0.6 _ +0.2 ___ +1.8 _ +1.3 _ +5.2

 

_11th ___ (p20d anom) ___ -2.0 _ -0.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 __ 0.0 _ +0.5 ___ +3.0 _ +1.5 _ +4.0

_11th ___ (p27d anom) ___ -1.0 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +3.0

_21st ___ (p31d anom) ___ -0.5 _ +0.5 _ +2.5 __ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___+2.0 _ +1.5 _ +3.5

_27th ___ (p31 anom) ____ -1.0 __ 0.0 __ +2.5 __ +1.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.5 ___ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +4.0

_31st ____ (final anoms) __ -2.2 _ -0.5 _ +1.7 __ +1.8 _ -0.9 _ -0.7 ___ +2.0 _ +1.3 _ +3.4

_________________________________________

11th _ Rather close to average so far, with a very warm period setting in over western regions. Projections otherwise are not far from normal.

21st _ A subdued warmth is predicted for rest of the month, went with +1 to +2 anomalies for all locations 21st to 31st to complete the month. Some preliminary scoring will follow. 

No further snowfall has occurred and the contest standings in the April thread will probably be the final report, but will keep an eye on DEN projections to early June when their season ends. 

27th _ Slight changes to projections will result in adjustments to scoring estimates below.

31st - 1st __ Final anomalies now all posted, scoring adjusted. 

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for May 2023

 

Scoring is based on the end-of-month anomalies in the previous post.

 

FORECASTER _________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL

 

___ Consensus _________________ 70 _ 94 _ 72 __ 236 __ 70 _ 92 _ 88 __ 250 __ 486 __ 82 _ 96 _ 56 __ 234 __ 720

wxallannj _______________________ 76 _ 86 _ 46 __ 208 __ 74 _ 92 _ 94 __ 260 __ 468 __ 90 _ 80 _ 62 __ 232 __ 700

hudsonvalley21 ________________ 62 _ 98 _ 62 __ 222 __ 68 _ 86 _ 98 __ 252 __ 474 __ 96 _ 90 _ 40 __ 226 __ 700

Tom ____________________________ 72 _ 92 _ 48 __ 212 __ 52 _ 96 _ 98 __ 246 __ 458 __ 82 _ 94 _ 56 __ 232 __ 690

BKViking ________________________78 _ 86 _ 50 __ 214 __ 66 _ 86 _ 92 __ 244 __ 458 __ 86 _ 96 _ 48 __ 230 __ 688

Rhino16 ________________________ 62 _ 82 _ 88 __ 232 __ 66 _ 96 _ 84 __ 246 __ 478 __ 66 _ 66 _ 46 __ 178 __ 656

wxdude64 _____________________ 64 _ 94 _ 72 __ 230 __ 70 _100 _ 80 __ 250 __ 480 __ 74 _ 46 _ 56 __ 176 __ 656

DonSutherland1 ________________ 72 _ 92 _ 80 __ 244 __ 54 _ 84 _ 94 __ 232 __ 476 __ 58 _ 54 _ 68 __ 180 __ 656

RJay ___________________________ 56 _ 70 _ 86 __ 212 __ 84 _ 82 _ 66 __ 232 __ 444 __ 60 _ 74 _ 62 __ 196 __ 640

StormchaserChuck1 ___________ 20 _ 54 _ 98 __ 172 __ 96 _ 42 _ 56 __ 194 __ 366 __100 _ 86 _ 80 __266 __ 632

Scotty Lightning _______________ 36 _ 70 _ 86 __ 192 __ 84 _ 52 _ 56 __ 192 __ 384 __ 80 _ 96 _ 52 __ 228 __ 612

___ Normal _____________________ 56 _ 90 _ 66 __ 212 __ 64 _ 82 _ 86 __ 232 __ 444 __ 60 _ 74 _ 32 __ 166 __ 610

Roger Smith ____________________94 _ 64 _ 26 ___ 184 __ 10 _ 64 _ 94 __ 168 __ 352 __ 80 _ 56 _ 98 __234 __ 586

RodneyS _______________________ 98 _ 92 _ 62 __ 252 __ 00 _ 84 _ 70 __ 154 __ 406 __ 78 _ 50 _ 18 ___ 146 __ 552

- - - - -

___ Persistence _________________ 00 _ 12 _ 90 __ 102 __ 96 _ 76 _ 76 __ 248 __ 350 __ 60 _ 96 _ 00 __ 156 __ 506
 

_________________________________________________

 

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

DCA (-2.2) a win for RodneyS (-2.1) and a loss for Roger Smith (-2.5). 

NYC, ATL, DEN, PHX no extreme forecasts. 

IAH (-0.7) a win for Hudsonvalley21 and Tom (-0.6) and a loss for wxallannj and Roger Smith (-1.0).

BOS (+1.7) and ORD (+1.8)  StormchaserChuck wins with warmest forecasts. 

SEA (+3.4) is a win for Roger Smith (+3.5). 

=======================================

 

[Roger Smith]

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JAN-MAY 2023 ---- >>>> === ===

 

Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. 

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS

 

RJay _______________________313 _324 _ 335 __ 972 __396 _325 _284__ 1005 __1977 _295 _296 _384 __975 ____2952

DonSutherland1 ___________ 288 _264 _ 314 __ 866 __316 _350 _344 __1010 __1876 __275 _296_382 __ 953 ____2829

hudsonvalley21 ____________271 _270 _ 335 __ 876 __356 _313 _293 __ 962 __1838 __292 _316 _359 __ 967 ____2805

wxallannj __________________ 297 _302 _ 321 __ 920 __ 369 _304 _322__ 995 __1915 _ 285 _318 _274 __877 ____ 2792

___ Consensus _____________273 _274 _ 325 __872 __329 _282 _303 __ 914 __1786 _ 305 _ 302 _360 __967 ____2753

wxdude64 _________________300 _303 _312 __ 915 __253 _296 _260 __ 809 __1724 __333 _246 _342 __ 921 ____2645

RodneyS __________________ 254 _254 _278 __ 786 __ 195 _269 _318 __ 782 __1568 _ 367 _ 288 _340 __ 995____ 2573

BKViking ___________________276 _272 _303 __ 851 __293 _262 _287 __ 842 __1693 __287 _248 _240 __ 775 ____ 2468

Roger Smith _______________ 268 _226 _264 __ 758 __241 _209 _274 __ 724 __1482 __ 275 _248 _374 __ 897 ____2379

Scotty Lightning ___________213 _236 _290 __ 739 __289 _235 _270 __ 794 __1533 __266 _234 _254 __ 754 ____ 2287

Tom (4/5) __________________225 _230 _247 __ 702 __176 _228 _270 __ 674 __1376 __276 _262 _267 __ 805 _____2181

___ Normal _________________ 148 _ 176 _210 __534 __ 220 _228 _242 __ 690 __1224 __278 _250 _244 __772 ____ 1996

Stormchaser Chuck (3/5) __201 _238 _196 ___ 635 ___257 _132 _146 ___535 __ 1170 __238 _240 _238 __ 716 ____1886

Rhino16 (3/5) ______________ 174 _174 _200 ___ 548 ___220 _228 _150 ___ 598 __1146 __183 _144 _202 __ 529 ____ 1675

so_whats_happening (2/5) _ 90 _ 82 _ 138 ___ 310 __ 101 _ 41 _ 134 ___ 276 ___ 586 __ 98 __ 96 _ 148 __ 342 ____ 928

rainsucks (1/5) _____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ____ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 __ 232 ____ 456 

_______________________________________________________

Persistence ________________143 _154 _292 __ 589 ___ 212 _219 _290 __ 721 __1310 __148 _ 310 _ 224 __ 682 ____1992  

                                                         

 

Best Forecasts

 

* shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not)

 

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months

 

RJay _______________________ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___2**____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___ 1 ___0 ____0 

DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 2*____2*____0____2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 2*___0 ____2 _ Jan,Mar

hudsonvalley21 ____________0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0^____0 ____1* ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1* _ May (t)

wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1* _ May (t)

___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ May

wxdude64 _________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Apr

RodneyS ___________________1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1* ___ 3 ____0

BKViking __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___0 ___ 0 ____0

Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____0 

Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___0 ___ 0 ____0

Tom (4/5) _________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

___ Normal _________________0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0

Stormchaser Chuck (3/5) __2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1* ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____1 _ Feb

Rhino16 (3/5) ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

so_whats_happening (2/5) _0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

rainsucks (1/5) ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

(hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^

-----------------------------------------

 

EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY

 

So far, 38 of 45 forecasts qualify, 25 of them for warmest, and 13 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3, May 3-2 ...

10 of 35 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. Two of those ten are a shared loss. 

 

FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May ____ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties)

RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0___ 10-1 _______9.5 - 1

StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 _ 2-0___ 9-3 _______8.5 - 3

DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 ___ 7-1 _______ 6.5 - 1

RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 ____ 5-0 _______ 5.0 - 0

Scotty Lightning _____0.0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* _ 0-0 ___ 3-2 _______ 3.0 - 1.5

Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 1-1*___ 3-1 _______2.5 - 0.5

hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 _ 1*-0 ___ 3-0 _______2.0 - 0

Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0____ 2-0 ______ 1.5 - 0

wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ____ 1-0 _______ 1.0 - 0

wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* 0-1* ___ 1-2 ______ 0.5 - 1.0

so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_ -- -- _ -- - ___ 0-1 ______ 0.0 - 1

rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0

BKViking _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 ____ 0-0 ______ 0.0 - 0

===========================================

[Roger Smith]

Four Seasons contest 2022-23 __ Spring segment

 

Each season is scored 10 points for high total score, then 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 for 2nd to 7th, and 1 point for anyone else who entered a minimum of 2/3.

 

FORECASTER _________ Winter TOTAL __ Points ____ MAR __ APR __ MAY ___ TOTAL __ Spring Points ___ TOTAL points

RJay _________________________1879 _____ 10 _________ 481 ___ 640 ___ 640 ____ 1761 ____ 5 _________ 15

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 1675 _____ 4 ___________476 ___ 648 ___ 700 ____ 1824 ____ 10 ________ 14

___ Consensus _______________1682 _____ 4.3 ________ 447 ___ 605 ___ 720 ____ 1772 ____6.9 ________ 11.2

DonSutherland1 _____________ 1722 _____ 6 __________ 513 ___ 592 ___ 656 ____ 1761 ____ 5 _________ 11

wxallannj ____________________ 1699 _____ 5 __________ 477 ___ 588 ___ 700 ____ 1765 ____ 6 _________ 11

RodneyS ____________________ 1760 ______7 __________ 463 ___ 528 ___ 552 ____ 1543 ____ 1 __________8

wxdude64 __________________1518 ______ 1 ____________465 ___ 652 ___ 656 ____ 1773 ____ 7 __________8

Roger Smith ________________ 1626 _____ 3 ___________ 271 ___ 552 ___ 586 ____ 1409 ____ 1 __________ 4

Scotty Lightning ___________ 1147 ______ 1 ____________502 ___ 562 ___ 612 ____ 1676 ____ 3 __________ 4

so_whats_happening _______ 1620 _____ 2 ___________ -- --___ -- --___ -- --____ -- -- ____ 0 __________ 2

BKViking ___________________ 1576 ______ 1 ___________ 355 ___ 537 ___ 688 ____ 1580 ____ 1 __________ 2

Tom ________________________ 1545 ______ 1 ___________ -- --___ 591 ___ 690 ____ 1281 ____ 1 __________ 2

Rhino 16 ____________________ -- -- _____ 0 ____________ 389 ___ 630 ___ 656 ____ 1675 ____ 2 _________ 2

___ Normal _________________ 1076 _____ 1 _____________ 422 ___ 538 ___ 610 ____ 1570 ____ 1 __________ 2

StormchaserChuck _________ 674 (1/3) _ 0 ____________-- --___ 580 ___ 632 ____ 1212 ____ 1 __________ 1