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May obs/discussion thread - Welcome to Severe Season!!


weatherwiz
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35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They’ve all sucked here. Yesterday we had an hour of breaks in overcast. Yay. 65-70 will feel epic.

I guess it was worse elsewhere, lucked out here being far enough east with the ULL to the west. 

Touched 60+ all three days, and sun most of the time. 

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Today blows. No sugarcoating this one . But the lighted tunnel is right there . One more day 

I'd give it Friday, too but agreed in principle.

Saturday ... both the 2-meter product suites from the GFS and Euro look a tad too conservative with d-slope flow. 850's raise to +5C by 4-6pm, indicative of mixing having been successful above 925mb...  after roaring sun much of the day...  Yet, they're capping in that 66-69 range?  I suspect the actualized 2-meter temperatures should be 72 to 74. 

This is true for Sunday ... and perhaps Monday as well, but there may be a BD in the area that day. 

The question is, does the sun hammer?  The RH at the typical ceiling heights is generally at or less than 50% but I'm not sure how accurate those RH levels are in the guidance.  Either way... the synopsis favors drying the column with the deep layer flow bumping over the cordillera from the NW, and then en mass, having to then go d-slope, most importantly...a behavior that sans CAA while that is happening.

I noticed the on-camera mets were hanging temps in the mid to upper 60s yesterday when running mill at the gym...  Seems they're lifting numbers off machine.  Some conditioning do to recent drab/cool unrelenting may be temping folks to be conservative.

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'd give it Friday, too but agreed in principle.

Saturday ... both the 2-meter product suites from the GFS and Euro look a tad too conservative with d-slope flow. 850's raise to +5C by 4-6pm, indicative of mixing having been successful above 925mb...  after roaring sun much of the day...  Yet, they're capping in that 66-69 range?  I suspect the actualized 2-meter temperatures should be 72 to 74. 

This is true for Sunday ... and perhaps Monday as well, but there may be a BD in the area that day. 

The question is, does the sun hammer?  The RH at the typical ceiling heights is generally at or less than 50% but I'm not sure how accurate those RH levels are in the guidance.  Either way... the synopsis favors drying the column with the deep layer flow bumping over the cordillera from the NW, and then en mass, having to then go d-slope, most importantly...a behavior that sans CAA while that is happening.

I noticed the on-camera mets were hanging temps in the mid to upper 60s yesterday when doing run mill at the gym...  Seems they're lifting numbers off machine.

Saturday certainly has potential to overachieve as does Sunday. In fact, Sunday certainly has the greater potential, but one caveat right now is there may be some mid-to-high level clouds streaming southeast across the region from Canada. Obviously several days out so take with a grain of salt, but if we get strong heating/mixing Sunday 70's should be quite common. Maybe near 75 in the torch spots?  

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Saturday certainly has potential to overachieve as does Sunday. In fact, Sunday certainly has the greater potential, but one caveat right now is there may be some mid-to-high level clouds streaming southeast across the region from Canada. Obviously several days out so take with a grain of salt, but if we get strong heating/mixing Sunday 70's should be quite common. Maybe near 75 in the torch spots?  

This weekend is a light, d-slope flow of "prime-able" air because it doens't have CAA integrating the trajectory.  So it'll all come down to sunshine.

Yeah..that's why I elaborated about not knowing how accurate the typical ceiling height RH handling is - agreed.  If the sun gets pig piled it's 65.   But it's such a huge factor at this time of year. If/when CAA is not in the region, the sun up temp can be capped by clouds a linger into the afternoon, and it gets sunny at circa 2pm and you burst for 10 from that alone. 

LOL... it's not exactly a riveting topic, the different between 64 and 74 ... no. BUT, the intangible I'm monitoring is the 'jolt' ... spending in a week in the dungeon with the Labradorian "gimp" and then transitioning all at once are interesting phenomenon to me.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This weekend is a light, d-slope flow of "prime-able" air because it doens't have CAA integrating the trajectory.  So it'll all come down to sunshine.

Yeah..that's why I elaborated about now knowing how accurate the typical ceiling height RH handling is... agreed.  If the sun gets pig piled it's 65.   But it's such a huge factor at this time of year that when CAA is not in the region, the sun up temp can be capped by clouds a linger into an afternoon, and it gets sun at circa 2pm and you burst for 10 from that alone. 

LOL... it's not exactly a riveting topic, the different between 64 and 74 ... no. BUT, the intangible I'm monitoring is the 'jolt' ... spending in a week in the dungeon with the Labradorian "gimp" and then transitioning all at once are interesting phenomenon to me.

Maybe any cloud cover potential will be tied into convective activity across the northern Plains/upper-Midwest into south-central Canada Friday/Saturday? Would seem any clouds streaming would be remnant convective debris...so with that maybe we'd get lucky and they're just thin high clouds...enough to provide some dim but not really hold temps back more then 1-2F from their potential 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Correction vector ?

More like correction pecker the way this spring is with these models.

jeezus

NAM -based machine guidance now 70+ at BDL, FIT, ASH, and BED   ... so yeah, with the over arching synoptics through the period, the "vector" would be pointed at warmer - but we're not going crazy with that assessment, either.

... Like the old 2 or may 3 F higher than machine - typical in the front side of the solar max (May to late June) for machine to error by small values on the cool side, on days of high sun over top zip CAA.

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23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

After a historically active January-April in terms of tornadoes May is looking dead. Sucks for the people who booked vacations to go chasing in May...and not really b/c many of them are nothing but clowns so haha to them. 

The SE and South Central got chilly so no temp contrast....

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30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

After a historically active January-April in terms of tornadoes May is looking dead. Sucks for the people who booked vacations to go chasing in May...and not really b/c many of them are nothing but clowns so haha to them. 

Usually not good with ridging into the Rockies. You'd want the pattern we had all winter for big Plains SVR.

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