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May obs/discussion thread - Welcome to Severe Season!!


weatherwiz
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1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Can't be right. Someone on here was calling for torch.

46F and falling, but this should be the coolest night in a while.

What a time to be alive it seems.

Clear sailing for as far as one can see.  Goes out through Thursday too, past the NWS icon forecast.

Getting warm with low dews. San Diego in New England.  Cheers all... to the warm season 

1817004844_May_26_forecast_WhataTimetobeAlive.thumb.jpg.26a452c8cd470b3d9f8f497c336749b4.jpg

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"Humidity can cause all sorts of problems, some serious (making high temperatures dangerous for human health) and some mildly annoying (frizzy hair). What if it also could help in our response to the climate crisis?

In a study out this week, scientists at the University of Massachusetts Amherst say they have created a device that can harvest electricity from humidity in the air."

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/05/26/science/harnessing-same-forces-lightning-new-technology-extracts-electricity-humidity/

By the looks of the long range we won't be getting any free electricity around here. COC as far as the eye can see.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Right back to troughing next weekend and beyond. Fortunately in June it means nice weather I’d it’s dry, but certainly no heat or dews. A shame. 

Meg Griffin the GGEM ...?  haha.    That model was very much less aggressive with that whole -NAO back loading/retrograde idea that the others are [probably] going to be more correct about, just too deep/amplified.  It offers up early heat into N-W New England and probably d-slopes us with it... with seemingly no end in sight. 

The things is ... I'm suspicious ( not that anyone's asking me here ..) of that N Atlantic and Maritime Canadian look.  I don't see how/why there is any upstream R-wave forcing across the Pac relay throughout the N/A continent that necessitates all that cumulative height depth formulating there.  As a result, it's sending the NAO down to cold Hades by virtue of deltas in the other direction.  I don't think teleconnector computations really know the difference.   So we get that index that challenges climo ... while the operational Euro and GFS both seem to be non-dispersive, relative to there ensemble means .. which is fine, but en masse they all look weirdly unbalanced with the R-wave distribution.

The GGEM also looks weird though.  Lol  The flow at hemispheric distinction is clearly slacked off and breaking down seasonally - that may be red flag in general not to trust the shape and amplitude out there in time.  I dunno  

 

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20 hours ago, CT Rain said:

I think all of us do

Seems there's a modest attempt to back off momentum in the guidance.   In general... I get the feel that this is a middling BD for eastern regions, and probably more of a wind shift ... Maybe 10 F type cut back toward CT...  88 to 78 there.  But 88 to 65 for SE NH/ NE MA

This is actually impressively model imo, regardless of amplitude.  The globals hit on this feature like 4 days ago and have been pretty persistent about it.  The modeling in general - from what I can tell ... - has vastly improved with these low level events, ... so much so that sometimes they are even over estimating them. It'll be interesting, though incredible nerdly ..lol to see how this one evolves.  The Euro at 00z almost looked more like a NNW-SSE moving boundary as opposed to a BD.  That may be why some of the cooling is backed off slightly from that model, because it's not mashing up the GOM heat sink ...

Figures... my buddy's invited the whole circuit of us to his pool party.

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Will Wiz even see a storm this summer?

This is ridiculous. My friend and I even pushed back our two weeks this year until the first and second week of June. We always did last week of May/first week of June and had success each year from 2009 when we started through like 2018. I think one year sucked. Then we didn’t in 2019 but didn’t the covid years and started back last year. Last year sucked so we pushed ahead. This is bullshit. Sick of this crap 

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11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is ridiculous should be considered more normal than not for this climatology, anyway. My friend and I even pushed back our two weeks this year until the first and second week of June - and we're considering that lucky if it's worth it. We always did last week of May/first week of June and had success each year from 2009 when we started through like 2018, but we are correcting back to climo now so it's to be expected - we have nothing to complain about if/when being realistic. I think one year sucked. Then we didn’t in 2019 but didn’t the covid years and started back last year. Last year sucked so we pushed ahead. This is bullshit. Sick of this crap why I am going to be looking for move to a region of the country (finally!) that is more likely to produce.

 

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is ridiculous. My friend and I even pushed back our two weeks this year until the first and second week of June. We always did last week of May/first week of June and had success each year from 2009 when we started through like 2018. I think one year sucked. Then we didn’t in 2019 but didn’t the covid years and started back last year. Last year sucked so we pushed ahead. This is bullshit. Sick of this crap 

Are you going chasing out west for two weeks ?

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1 hour ago, tunafish said:

Not even 10A and we've gone from 41F to 71F.  What a day

37 to 70s here - low dews, bright sun, high angle.  May averages the greatest diurnal range here at just under 25°, with April 1.6 behind.  Nov-Dec fight for the lowest range at 17.xy.  May 2001 and 2018 each had an average range of 29.9°, while at the other end the silly-mild Dec 2015 range was only 12.7°.

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Nah we stay local. We have always talked about going out West but I don’t even think it’s worth it anymore with all the chaser convergence and idiots that are out there. 

It’s absolutely worth it. 100%.

You’re well enough versed in tracking and identifying severe to go to places that won’t have as much chaser convergence. 

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7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s absolutely worth it. 100%.

You’re well enough versed in tracking and identifying severe to go to places that won’t have as much chaser convergence. 

What I would really like is to chase stuff or setups like they’ve had the past few days in eastern New Mexico/western Texas. Or when they get them in Montana/Wyoming/northern Plains. Everyone wants the high risk days but the structures with some of the storms the last few days have been amazing 

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17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What I would really like is to chase stuff or setups like they’ve had the past few days in eastern New Mexico/western Texas. Or when they get them in Montana/Wyoming/northern Plains. Everyone wants the high risk days but the structures with some of the storms the last few days have been amazing 

That’s it. The high and mod days where the risk is relatively confined geographically is where you probably get the most convergence.

I’ve gone out twice and while I wasn’t lucky enough to get the high end wedges lol I’ve gone to plenty of under the radar setups and gotten good stuff with not a lot of folks around. 

Edit: and also, like my early tropical chases, the practice is worth it in itself for me. 

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Kind of a weak sauce BD ...  The 12z MAV is only modestly cooler Monday when compared to what a BDs are more typically capable of - imposing the minimum cost of 25 F off the highs the next day.   According to it, and the MET machine, it's still low to mid 70s even as far NE as KBED in former 'aft' side of the boundary.  

Btw, MAV send KASH to 91 tomorrow ... not bad. 

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5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

What I would really like is to chase stuff or setups like they’ve had the past few days in eastern New Mexico/western Texas. Or when they get them in Montana/Wyoming/northern Plains. Everyone wants the high risk days but the structures with some of the storms the last few days have been amazing 

Talk to @Stebohe was in Clovis, NM this week. 

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5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Nah we stay local. We have always talked about going out West but I don’t even think it’s worth it anymore with all the chaser convergence and idiots that are out there. 

It doesn’t seem like your odds are high to witness much exciting locally . Set yourself up for success and chase where the most storms are 

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