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May obs/discussion thread - Welcome to Severe Season!!


weatherwiz
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10 hours ago, dendrite said:

The black flies are finally calming down here. Probably just in time for the skeeters to pick up.

i noticed this past weekend fewer black flies but more mosquitos. At least bug spray mostly keeps the skeeters away, but it has zero effect on the blackies.

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

40.7°

Hopefully this next shot is the last of the legit cold. 

while on my morning walk today, I was thinking that it seems like the overnights have been fairly chilly. I don't mind the cool overnights-keeps me from installing.

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As a summer enthusiast ... even I'm looking forward to punching this next in a seemingly endless series of cold fronts through, just to scour out this unending Armageddon blue ...

I've just about had enough of the smoke pal sky. Seems instances of this taking over spring and summers is becoming dependable - gee, wonder why ? 

Anyway, nice air quality deformation pressing S out of Canada.  Represents - also - the last ? Been an impressive 5 week pattern persistence, one that has gobbled up all of May.  Noticing that climo sites around SNE are within a tick of neutral - which in CC-dominating tendency for +.+ months, I consider neutral   a relative below normal month.

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Have not looked at very much weather wise the last couple months other then if there's going to be frost as its planting season and working to get the garden in this week as i do every year, But my birthday weekend is looking very nice coming up here, Mid 70's low 80's, Memorial weekend can be a crap shoot cold and misery in some cases more often then not.

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4 hours ago, dendrite said:

40.7°

Hopefully this next shot is the last of the legit cold. 

We keep holding off on planting the garden, thinking each one will be the last.

6z GFS was cold tonight again.  NAM is upper 30s though and would avoid the frost.

Memorial Day weekend is historically the "safe" time to start thinking it won't frost/freeze anymore here.  So seems right on cue.

gfs-deterministic-vt-t2m_f_min_last24-5016000.thumb.png.ac9e7b01013d219b88cd5a4b4fc13253.png

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There is a modest chance, albeit above background climate, for an 87-91 type heat wave Monday - Wednesday this next week ...

As an ongoing new CC -related concern:  Any heat signal, however uninspired in guidance, needs to be monitored due to the increased frequency in the Global total climate logs of these so-called, "synergistic heat waves."  They tend not to be forecast particularly well, but are far more likely to manifest within warmer anomalous patterns.

Telecon spread beyond next week returns the pattern of the last 4 to 5 weeks, suggesting next week is a warm interlude before 'reloading.'   However, we should bear in mind that the indexes become less correlative during the boreal summer months - this is particularly true for the PNA. The wave length shortening breaks down the coherency of R-wave distribution ...along with it, 'teleconnection' aspects break down (statistically).

That said, ... the EPO dives to -1.5 SD while the PNA rises to +2 SD by mid June... Not only that, both the AO(NAO subordinate) fields are trying to throw a blocking signal.  I mean it's like what the f* is going on with that spread - we'd be blushing with glut shame if this were Christmas...   

Don't know about under a solstice sun, though -

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

We keep holding off on planting the garden, thinking each one will be the last.

6z GFS was cold tonight again.  NAM is upper 30s though and would avoid the frost.

Memorial Day weekend is historically the "safe" time to start thinking it won't frost/freeze anymore here.  So seems right on cue.

gfs-deterministic-vt-t2m_f_min_last24-5016000.thumb.png.ac9e7b01013d219b88cd5a4b4fc13253.png

Always use Memorial day as a barometer.  Full STRAWBERRY moon is June 3rd. That's usually the signal for the last real cold shot.

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