May obs/discussion thread - Welcome to Severe Season!!

[powderfreak]

35F for the low. 

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

35F for the low. 

48 here...

This particular rendition of annoying asshole unseasonable cold loading appears destined to shallow out in latitude ... Doesn't seem the cold 'thick' is cresting the terrain enough, and with d-slope wind and yadda yadda yadda smoke permitting ... still nears 70 down this way, while it may be mid 50s mid summits+ ?  up that way

somethin' like that.

Just gathering my senses on the day ... Looks like a significant shift toward optimism by all operational guidance for the weekend.   Friday may be dicey ... early Saturday over Maine, but improves unilaterally by that afternoon, and Sunday and Monday look COL/fair under 12+ 850 and dry-ish ceiling hgt RH levels    =  70 to 80+ N-S through the regions. 

night to day ... Not to push my agenda but I did mention this was possible yesterday.  I thought - though - that if we did get this solution to happen, it would take 2 or so days to start manifesting in a grind where the models are clearly deliberately designed to ass bang plans and it is a fight to admit it's nicer. Ha.  This did it on the next 2 cycles.  Anyway, there's likely to be something down south still that may affect matters later next week  - or not... But that idea of severing a 500 mb vortex and then sending it SW from a starting position over Montreal ... to then phase with said gunk in the SE ... ? that was all pretty easily suspect in my mind. 

Not intending to count eggs before they hatch but as is, we're looking at a rare omelette MDW

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Men in suits taking chamber pics everywhere.  Cocadoodledewlessness 

Let’s hope that pans out. Euro actually brings a touch of humidity for southern areas days 7-10. 

[Damage In Tolland]

ASOUT

Nice sunny summer MDW

[CoastalWx]

Still needs to be watched. Not sure it’s summery all weekend unless that’s  what you wish for. 

[CoastalWx]

I’ll lean to an overall decent weekend though. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still needs to be watched. Not sure it’s summery all weekend unless that’s  what you wish for. 

Yeah... it's complex. 

In short, the models are losing the N-stream plunk in crazy retro look ... which fine - that was dubious to begin with. But the southern gunk between the TV and lower Middle Atl region still tries to weakly close off, yet just enough to maybe be a concern approaching from the south without that N-stream nonsense.

It's an improvement but not out of the woods entirely.  It's possible that southern aspect is also overly weighted by the guidance, but ... of the two scenarios, we don't have a problem with the southern one - there's really not much dubious about that particular aspect.  we'll see

[HoarfrostHubb]

Doesn't look fun for the Mid Atlantic folks

[weatherwiz]

The best Memorial Day weekend ever was 1998

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Doesn't look fun for the Mid Atlantic folks

I'm privately thinking that whole morass of that is down there, then closing off ... might be over weighted by guidance a bit. 

The surrounding hemisphere is in an index modal change ... rendering the erstwhile semi-persistent +PNA to a more neutral or even modestly negative one.  It's doing this in a matter of mere 2 to 3 days, the speed of which "might" be an issue for the guidance when beyond 4 days away.

That index see-saw tries to raise heights in the east below the 50th parallel, while also changing the circulation structure across Canada - the westerlies lift N rather abruptly over the EC ..which is mechanically inducing the models to want to close off that region down there ...

But we could be looking at a average of 'coarseness' behavior due to being beyond 4 days...     This is how/why the models tend to an amplitude bias in general operations at mid ranges -

[TheBudMan]

41 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The best Memorial Day weekend ever was 1998

 

I drove right through that Wiz in E NY.   Lifetime memory !!!! 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, TheBudMan said:

 

I drove right through that Wiz in E NY.   Lifetime memory !!!! 

That was some weekend.

Had severe weather that Friday with that front stalling to our south which lifted back north as a warm front that Sunday morning. That Sunday was wild...heck, the Red Sox crushed the Yankees too...I think they scored like 10 runs in the 3rd inning (actually almost kind of blew the game). But that late Sunday afternoon/evening...wow. I'm 99.999% sure I saw a funnel cloud, but it was dark out so can't confirm but my dad and I were looking out the window straight ahead and there was this super low cloud that was visible with the lightning. 

[powderfreak]

41 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That was some weekend.

 

I still remember that one too.  Think it was the worst severe storm I saw at my childhood house.  I remember we went to the basement and came up to trees uprooted.  I can still remember this like large group of families just wandering the neighborhood together in awe looking at damage.

On Sunday, May 31, 1998, a severe weather outbreak occurred across the northeast United States.  The severe thunderstorms produced 20 tornadoes within a two hour drive of Albany, NY, along with hundreds of damaging wind and large hail reports.

On May 31, 1998, the Albany NWS forecast area was in a “High Risk” for severe weather as defined by the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK. SPC has been issuing severe weather outlooks since the mid-1950s. This is the only time the Albany forecast area has been put in a “High Risk”. It hadn’t happened before, it hasn’t happed since. 

[dendrite]

5/31/98 was my first ever flight. BOS to MSP.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I still remember that one too.  Think it was the worst severe storm I saw at my childhood house.  I remember we went to the basement and came up to trees uprooted.  I can still remember this like large group of families just wandering the neighborhood together in awe looking at damage.

On Sunday, May 31, 1998, a severe weather outbreak occurred across the northeast United States.  The severe thunderstorms produced 20 tornadoes within a two hour drive of Albany, NY, along with hundreds of damaging wind and large hail reports.

On May 31, 1998, the Albany NWS forecast area was in a “High Risk” for severe weather as defined by the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK. SPC has been issuing severe weather outlooks since the mid-1950s. This is the only time the Albany forecast area has been put in a “High Risk”. It hadn’t happened before, it hasn’t happed since. 

I can't image us ever seeing a high risk again unless we had a classic derecho setup. That last week of May and first week of June was wild. June 2 had a pretty prolific tornado outbreak just to our southwest from Ohio/PA into the mid-Atlantic. I think there were over 50-60 tornado reports that day. 

Also...look at the size of that moderate...from NH southwest to KY  

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I can't image us ever seeing a high risk again unless we had a classic derecho setup. That last week of May and first week of June was wild. June 2 had a pretty prolific tornado outbreak just to our southwest from Ohio/PA into the mid-Atlantic. I think there were over 50-60 tornado reports that day. 

Also...look at the size of that moderate...from NH southwest to KY  

Yeah that’s a wild Day 1 outlook.

Seemed pretty well forecast too.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that’s a wild Day 1 outlook.

Seemed pretty well forecast too.

Yeah it was. I remember watching TWC, local news, and even on the radio they were talking about tornado potential on Saturday. 

[Sn0waddict]

80s and sun all weekend on the GFS

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah it was. I remember watching TWC, local news, and even on the radio they were talking about tornado potential on Saturday. 

ORH gusted to 104mph in that. Around 10pm too I think. Quite the light show even around these parts. I believe 2 days later another svr event took place across the northeast.

We had a good event in 2009 during Saturday of MDW. I didn't witness it personally, but I came to my friend's house in Duxbury to a party where there were 2" hailstones still OTG about 20 min after the storm hit. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

ORH gusted to 104mph in that. Around 10pm too I think. Quite the light show even around these parts. I believe 2 days later another svr event took place across the northeast.

We had a good event in 2009 during Saturday of MDW. I didn't witness it personally, but I came to my friend's house in Duxbury to a party where there were 2" hailstones still OTG about 20 min after the storm hit. 

Gusting to 104 mph for straightline winds is pretty wild and all the more wild the time it happened. I think even BDL gusted to around 70 mph. My sister called us screaming b/c she thought it was a tornado and not many (older) homes in Windsor Locks have basements. The mid-to-late 90's into the early 2000's were quite kind to us with higher-end svr. 

[Typhoon Tip]

53 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

80s and sun all weekend on the GFS

Precarious though ... from this range, anyway.

400 miles N or S it gets iffy so it's a bit of a limited room for error there.  

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Gusting to 104 mph for straightline winds is pretty wild and all the more wild the time it happened. I think even BDL gusted to around 70 mph. My sister called us screaming b/c she thought it was a tornado and not many (older) homes in Windsor Locks have basements. The mid-to-late 90's into the early 2000's were quite kind to us with higher-end svr. 

Other than an event here or there, I'd say last 10+ years have been flaccid overall. 

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Other than an event here or there, I'd say last 10+ years have been flaccid overall. 

Yeah it's been pretty meh overall in terms of higher end events outside of the February 2016 (was it the 13th or 17th? I remember it was a Wednesday), 5/15/18, 8/27/20 there hasn't been much in the way of higher end setups or events. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah it's been pretty meh overall in terms of higher end events outside of the February 2016 (was it the 13th or 17th? I remember it was a Wednesday), 5/15/18, 8/27/20 there hasn't been much in the way of higher end setups or events. 

Other than Feb 2016, the other events were localized. Last year we had a good storm at the end of August and the October 2020 derecho...but we've lacked a lot of mid to high end SVR relative to the 90s and 00s. 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Other than Feb 2016, the other events were localized. Last year we had a good storm at the end of August and the October 2020 derecho...but we've lacked a lot of mid to high end SVR relative to the 90s and 00s. 

90's and 00's definitely offered more widespread region-wide events. We just can't seem to do good squall lines anymore. The kind that develop right ahead of the cold front and then move across the entire region. That's what I miss most growing up in the 90's...but it always sucked to see lines completely fall apart around Hartford and then rejuvenate east of the River. While it was the 1995 derecho that got me interested in severe weather it was constantly watching squall lines fall apart which got me into wanting to study thunderstorms...it used to drive me nuts. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Sn0waddict said:

80s and sun all weekend on the GFS

AWT 

[dendrite]

58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

ORH gusted to 104mph in that. Around 10pm too I think. Quite the light show even around these parts. I believe 2 days later another svr event took place across the northeast.

We had a good event in 2009 during Saturday of MDW. I didn't witness it personally, but I came to my friend's house in Duxbury to a party where there were 2" hailstones still OTG about 20 min after the storm hit. 

I think it was "only" 82kt, but crazy either way. I was still stuck in Logan when that was coming through because of a broken radar on my plane. Fun times.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I think it was "only" 82kt, but crazy either way. I was still stuck in Logan when that was coming through because of a broken radar on my plane. Fun times.

Maybe it was Holy Cross that recorded it? I know 104mph somewhere at ORH. 

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe it was Holy Cross that recorded it? I know 104mph somewhere at ORH. 

ahhh yes...it was Holy Cross that recorded it. 

[ineedsnow]

Just went up mount Wachusett and walked down the road way still some SNOW!!!!!