Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

May obs/discussion thread - Welcome to Severe Season!!


weatherwiz
 Share

Recommended Posts

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

40’s and rain all 3 days . Interesting 

 

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe mountain snows?

:lol: Start laying that ground work so when it’s 60s and showers you can claim it was a splendid beach weekend.  Not 40s and Mtn snows.

Hopefully it’s 75F and sunny.  Rain would be infuriating.

  • Haha 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

 

:lol: Start laying that ground work so when it’s 60s and showers you can claim it was a splendid beach weekend.  Not 40s and Mtn snows.

 

Have 11 people and two campers coming up to my Rangeley camp… have certainly seen a range of Memorial Day weather up there, but I don’t ever recall snow.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, amc said:

Have 11 people and two campers coming up to my Rangeley camp… have certainly seen a range of Memorial Day weather up there, but I don’t ever recall snow.

What year was it? 2013?  Big Memorial Weekend snowstorm in the mountains. Mansfield had like 7-foot drifts.  Whiteface got like 3 feet.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What year was it? 2013?  Big Memorial Weekend snowstorm in the mountains. Mansfield had like 7-foot drifts.  Whiteface got like 3 feet.

Yep, 2013.  Spent Fri/Sat nights in a tent on Sebago with 36° and rain for like 40 hours.  Cleared out on Sunday and we went to the Whites for some hiking only to find everything covered in 2 or 3" of snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So far good call on the cold rains and high Mtn snows. Still time to trend back south 

You aren’t pinning a call of Mtn snows and 40s on me for this weekend :lol:.

Just a chance of wet weather, it’s ok to acknowledge it. Hopefully it stays south as I hate any rain days during the warm season.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

EPS look worse than the OP next weekend.

Saturday and Sunday.

7ABEF4D2-B5D0-4B2C-9E4E-2BC5E08E8B6E.thumb.png.37467b60a50e55ccf309596b780a7fb3.png

0C962BDF-257D-4C42-B0C3-90F92C11E6F7.thumb.png.7b4b413c344a4d7f452217e0b2647778.png

About all we can hope for is this ... ( and it's a real phenomenon in the Spring in particular when it comes to  guidance error - )

Once in a while post the bowling season and just before the summer spaghetti heights season ... we go through this period where the models over assess trough closures in that D5-8 range.  I've seen this a handful of times over the years, where during modeling pattern see-saw occurrences, they lift heights in the east and sort of don't know what to do with the CU clouds in that region... 

The models do so too fast and the lower heights ivo the mid Atlantic close off - which turns out to be faux conservation of momentum that the models don't need to conserve.  

If this is one of those scenarios ... this will begin to fill/morph [probably ] into a weaker mid leve gyre that drifts west over the TV latitudes, while we end up balming out. 

Kevin is reading this and running to the bank with it - I'm just saying this sort of phenomenon is not unprecedented.  

It's getting late in the year for the sort of cut off the models are proposing, and while they are proposing it ... there does happen to be a bit of a PNA see-saw in the index, going from positive to negative toward the end of the week.  Because of those two considerations... it does remind me of an opportunity for the models to go ahead and exercise that type of error. 

after thoughts... The models are not going to be good at handling that differential when the surrounding westerlies are in rapid process of abandoning that region of the MA...  The trough sweeping SE through Canada is positively tiling - also - at high latitude for that behavior in itself, one that may result from forcing a trough through a region that is developing negative interference.  Particularly in the Euro I could see that being a amplitude bias at 144+ hours. 

So we'll see... it's probably < the 50% probability but it's there.  So hope -

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Embarrassingly ... what I just described to PF is pretty close to what the JMA does ... Gets a deep vortex closure as close by as Maine, and than rather than retrograding SW through NY State ( also a red flag in the GFS - ) it gives this by Sunday,

 

jma_z500a_us_8.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Embarrassingly ... what I just described to PF is pretty close to what the JMA does ... Gets a deep vortex closure as close by as Maine, and than rather than retrograding SW through NY State ( also a red flag in the GFS - ) it gives this by Sunday,

 

jma_z500a_us_8.png

Kind of what the 18z gfs does now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, powderfreak said:

What year was it? 2013?  Big Memorial Weekend snowstorm in the mountains. Mansfield had like 7-foot drifts.  Whiteface got like 3 feet.

Then 2 or 3 days later it was 80s with high dews.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...