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May obs/discussion thread - Welcome to Severe Season!!


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Saturday

Rain, mainly after 1pm. The rain could be heavy at times. Patchy fog before 8am. High near 64. Southeast wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Rain, mainly before 1am. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 52. South wind around 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

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HREF probability matched mean QPF, indicative of a worst case
scenario, pinpoints the possibility of up to 5" of rain across
portions of the CT River Valley/western MA. While we do not
anticipate widespread totals of 5", it is quite possible that a
few localities see 4" of rain from this system. Anecdotally,
this system has a history of overachieving, dropping as much as
10" of rain across eastern North Carolina yesterday. Our CWA
continues to be highlighted in an area of marginal risk in WPC`s
Excessive Rainfall Outlook.

While southern New England has been rain starved for the last two
weeks, a rapid injection of 3-4" of rain will possibly result
in poor drainage and urban flooding, especially if it falls
across central CT where there is more urban sprawl. While a
flood watch was not hoisted with this update, it is possible
that if the 12Z suite of guidance trends higher in anticipated
QPF that a short fused watch will be issued later this morning.
More details can be found in the hydro section of the AFD.
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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS has turned ugly for Memorial Day Weekend.  Torch gone with a cut off low bringing periods of rain and onshore flow for days. 

It’s obviously too far out for details but there’s been pretty remarkable consistency across the GEFS and EPS for much worse weather and a sig disturbance centered around the mid Atlantic, coinciding with Friday to Sunday window. And so, likewise, for our subforum—>odds currently favor much better weather north, especially relative to climo.

Looking around, observationally, the persistent exceptional dryness, portends a “clash of air masses”, fueling baroclinicty, if you will, as we head into unofficial summer. This makes me believe a subtropical disturbance type outcome as advertised on the 6z GFS has greater plausibility than we normally can assign this far out.

It could still flip, but odds are high enough in the mid Atlantic that I’m about pull the trigger on cancelling a trip to eastern Long Island and instead enjoy the long weekend around here with some day trips into Maine.

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42 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

61 and steady rain now.  Nice to get the pollen knocked down today.  Wash the truck and car tomorrow.

I almost pulled the trigger when fillin' the tank last night, and use the station's free albeit grungy slime detergent they never rotate ... but then hoped in the moment that I'll just drive down the highway at 70 mph in a moderate rain and that'll clean the vehicle just fine. 

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15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gonna be pissed if Boston sports cancels my softball double header in Cambridge Sunday afternoon for wet field 

They would do that?    heh...candy asses ...

It's gonna be like 77 F with that kind of soothing amount of DP ( non-oppressive) lingering, and nice warm sun.  Wet fields?   wow   ...unless you meant 'flooded field' 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I almost pulled the trigger when fillin' the tank last night, and use the station's free albeit grungy slime detergent they never rotate ... but then hoped in the moment that I'll just drive dow the highway at 70 mph in a moderate rain and that'll clean the vehicle just fine. 

DIT just had a stroke reading this. 

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

They would do that?    heh...candy asses ...

It's gonna be like 77 F with that kind of soothing amount of DP ( non-oppressive) lingering, and nice warm sun.  Wet fields?   wow   ...unless you meant 'flooded field' 

Technically they love to call the games the night before , so what maybe “flooded” (some puddles of standing water) at 10pm Saturday...would be damp by 2pm Sunday 

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19 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Technically they love to call the games the night before , so what maybe “flooded” (some puddles of standing water) at 10pm Saturday...would be damp by 2pm Sunday 

My generation ... ( as an approximation ) may be the last one that walked to school in 9" of snow and quarter mile visibility, or met up in a field for football with pouring rain on purpose... 

I guess anything that is "organized" has to be overly monitored because the people the organization is providing are now useless human pustule litigates, lookin' to cash in. That's cynical humor ... But, Americana has at this point become a definitive generational cancel happy culture, so much so that we even "Cancel Culture" .. but that's something else.

It really does transcend the trope where the elder says, "...Why back when we were young..."   it really is that way now, where that old guy is right.  When events, schools ... et al get canceled before the snow or rain is falling, and then half the time ... we're looking out the window at a setting in which neither has occurred ... that gets a little resentful.

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18 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Stein with 1.5"? not sure that qualifies although some other areas might get over 2-2.5"

Stein seems to have morphed into a “I didn’t jackpot” type of saying now.

Get an inch of rain while others get 2-3”?  Stein.

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