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May obs/discussion thread - Welcome to Severe Season!!


weatherwiz
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30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Same stretch of meh. 

For me is the amazing stretch of weather in the middle of April skewed the whole month for me. Also coincided with an incredibly fun binge of spring skiing, sunburns, grilling, and excellent community vibes.

Month finished +5.2 at MVL and +5.3 at Mansfield summit.  Very similar monthly warmth from valley to summit.

The 8 days of warmth, including three straight 81-85F days at MVL… absolutely bonkers.

Summit hit 70F twice, four straight record highs inside the 8 day siege of blue skies and high diurnal swings. 

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ahh, I’ll have to check the BTV obs.

You’re right!  Flags had gone NW about 30 minutes prior.  Rain band was about 90 minutes behind the wind switch.

Yeah that fractal pattern is similar to being under water and looking up - if there were a film making the boundary non-transparent it would be the same pattern. Only movements aren’t as easily seen in the sky because of scaling. 

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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah that fractal pattern is similar to being under water and looking up - if there were a film making the boundary non-transparent it would be the same pattern. Only movements aren’t as easily seen in the sky because of scaling. 

It is absolutely a fluid look. Awesome that other people see the atmosphere similarly. Air moves the same way as water.  It just depends on the “depth of the water” above the ground.

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Going to be a beautiful evening for some playoff hockey in Hartford. Connecticut is quietly turning into the sports capital. 

UConn men won the NCAA Title (boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo)

QU won the National Championship in College Hockey

Danbury Hat Tricks won the FPHL hockey championship

The Wolf Pack have to climb out of a 2-0 hole in the best-of-five, but if they win this series they go onto the conference finals! 

 

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It does look so weird with the leafed out vegetation to see flakes floating down.

Pretty good flare up of flurries and snow showers into the hills with this vort max.

Not too bad for May 17th, if it’s gonna be a chilly day might as well see some snow showers.

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro steins eastern areas Saturday. 

I am leaning towards a wetter scenario for Saturday. Maybe not a widespread soaking rain, but most should see at least showers. I guess the biggest wildcard in all this is that feature the models have moving north. But even with the front...pretty good dynamics and PWATS spike up. 

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49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro steins eastern areas Saturday. 

Not shocking, no -

yeah...that idea of that morass being over sold and probably destined to just being an ordinary frontal passage, .. perhaps enhanced some, is sort of been written on the wall.

 ... that southern stream response is questionable as it lifts astride the EC and meshes in ( previous runs) with the frontal complex sweeping through.   For one, the models tend to over amp cumulus clouds at that range, so... we watch for some normalization of that weird bullet s/w it swings down late in the week as being too strong.  The other aspect, the timing of the southern system is thus questionable, as well.. seldom well managed in mid range as a general rule, but if that s/w mutes some as it rounds the bend, than capturing and all that jazz doesn't have the same melody.

 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not shocking, no -

yeah...that idea of that morass being over sold and probably destined to just being an ordinary frontal passage, .. perhaps enhanced some, is sort of been written on the wall.

 ... that southern stream response is questionable as it lifts astride the EC and meshes in ( previous runs) with the frontal complex sweeping through.   For one, the models tend to over amp cumulus clouds at that range, so... we watch for some normalization of that weird bullet s/w it swings down late in the week as being too strong.  The other aspect, the timing of the southern system is thus questionable, as well.. seldom well managed in mid range as a general rule.

 

It eventually would move east, but 6z euro only goes to hr 90

 

EPS is pretty wet region wide. I guess its a matter of Saturday and whether this goes west initially then east, vs something coming up from the south due to WAA and weak low forming.

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