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May obs/discussion thread - Welcome to Severe Season!!


weatherwiz
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

?? It's always looked good to me.

I remember seeing some tweets and stuff on fb about some coastal storm with chilly temperatures, rain, and high elevation snow mixing in :lol: 

Obviously wasn't buying it but its funny to see social media blow up with every fantasy range storm 

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23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I remember seeing some tweets and stuff on fb about some coastal storm with chilly temperatures, rain, and high elevation snow mixing in :lol: 

Obviously wasn't buying it but its funny to see social media blow up with every fantasy range storm 

your first mistake is reading social media for weather forecasts.

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I wonder where this May ends up ranking in terms of tornadoes across the county...looks like it will be another historically inactive month. I really miss tornadohistoryproject.com. That was by far and away the best source for tornado data/statistics and was extremely user friendly. I know a group started up tornadoarchive but I don't see of a ay to cipher through data like you could with tornadohistoryproject.  

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42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think what Wiz is referencing was a day 10 euro coastal. but that was more on Monday I thought. It was definitely an outlier...just was funny to see.

Right ..I joked about it, '..any takers?'  when that came out.

as in sarcastically -

all these models seem to do this... they try to take the seasonal change out of the models and end up regressing a couple ... three weeks back in climatology time ... sometimes all the way back to late winter, the deeper they are allowed to process.   By day 10?  spring has no hope of competing - haha.

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30 minutes ago, weathafella said:

FWIW, MOS has been under doing max temperature for the past several weeks even in cooler patterns it seems.  BOS now 81.   Best I saw overnight was mid 70s.

Every single airmass has warmed as we got closer all spring. Even last week. Been on it for 2 months. That’s why these silly BN maos posted yiu just laugh and toss 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Every single airmass has warmed as we got closer all spring. Even last week. Been on it for 2 months. That’s why these silly BN maos posted yiu just laugh and toss 

That's not true at all. But today was always a 80-82 day IMO.

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30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Wow...I didn't realize how insane the ridging into western Canada was going to be. This is pretty wild for this early.

image.thumb.png.1275e6e4ff49e99500c62e52fdcab4d8.png

Yeah I’ve been watching that … wondering if another hot burst might be suggested but the antecedent leading circumstance may or may not be like 2021

i feel that anomaly is the result of the signal heat we were originally tracking for ‘after the first week of May’ back in April. Just ended up materializing there… Presently the PNA is negative. 

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57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Every single airmass has warmed as we got closer all spring. Even last week. Been on it for 2 months. That’s why these silly BN maos posted yiu just laugh and toss 

Plenty of 40s afternoons here, just as had been forecast 4-5 days earlier.  Minima yesterday and the day before did the opposite of the above - weekend forecasts had those mornings for New Sharon at mid-upper 30s, and by Monday it was 32-33.  Since my frost pocket usually about 5° below the GYX forecast for our town, the 28/27 frosts meant the later/colder forecast was the right one.

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