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May obs/discussion thread - Welcome to Severe Season!!


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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here you go, Kev'

Starting to see semblances of the western/tropical Pacific forcing. I've been discussing it for the past week while in wait of this type of model depiction. "Should" see more of this essence emerge. 

Former Pac forcing is a legit powerful observed factor, and I've been suspecting that it's just not yet ( to date) been very well sampled - therefore ... not ingesting into the initialization framework for the global guidance sources.  But, we see now Phase 3--> 4 is occurring and I don't think this solution below is a merely coincidence.  It is in fact, right on schedule.

Like I said... the 2nd week of May - that's the way I'm still leaning for now.  Which isn't that far away so.   

gfs_z500_vort_us_49.png

Furnace on its way 

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Furnace on its way 

We'll see...

I'd be happy for this outlook effort just to be consistently albeit modestly above normal.   That's not really even subjectively 'furnace' but I suppose it's up to the user.. heh.

Furnace is a heat wave now that we're into May.  If the mid latitude telecons start to reflect this Pac dispersion shit than we might have the conversation.

We also have to be leery of another a 'synoptic heat burst' ... which is different than a wholesale pattern change and can happen in somewhat isolation.

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We'll see...

I'd be happy for this outlook effort just to be consistently albeit modestly above normal.   That's not really even subjectively 'furnace' but I suppose it's up to the user.. heh.

Furnace is a heat wave now that we're into May.  If the mid latitude telecons start to reflect this Pac dispersion shit than we might have the conversation.

We also have to be leery of another a 'synoptic heat burst' ... which is different than a wholesale pattern change and can happen in somewhat isolation.

Could be a back and forth type deal too. Either way it should be a lot warmer. We're getting closer to that solar max after all. 

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8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

38F, damp and foggy outside.

Highest elevation West Virginia mountains going to get absolutely smoked next 24 hours.

F1B19A52-ED58-4145-AAB3-56538BBCE558.gif.773e6ff35b5ce9c66141e2d38ce271d3.gif

Their best snow of season . Snowshoe village is unique in that it’s at top of mountain (plateau) getting crushed . 4K 

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May 1 provided 87% of the month's average precip, with 2-day totals in central Maine ranging from 4" (4.45" here) to over 6".  Local rivers got well above flood stage and caused a lot of road damage - several schools are closed today due to uncertain road safety.  Carrabassett peaked at 35.5k cfs, 3.9k above the previous #2 flow, from Irene.  Sandy reached 31.3k, their #4 peak flow.  Both rivers have data starting in the 1920s.  Highest since 1987 but far short of that flood, 51.1k and 51.7k respectively.  Kennebec was 8.4 ft above flood in Augusta and 113k cfs at the gauge in North Sidney, also tops since 1987, though the earlier peak of 232k dwarfs all other flows.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Crazy 24 hour reports.  20" OTG.

MQT : NWS Marquette : DH0700/ 42/ 31/ 2.00/ 10.0/ 10.5/ 7

MQT : NWS Marquette : DH0700/ 33/ 31/ 2.38/ 7.1/ 15.8/ 20

That's incredible. They are about 1400' so that helps for sure.

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