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May obs/discussion thread - Welcome to Severe Season!!


weatherwiz
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15 hours ago, FXWX said:

Bastardi might need to hire a proof reader. Take a look at his recent post!

"So if you can weaken the el inino and shit it west which I think will happen given how strong it is early and the competing factors around it ( SS"

The somewhat unsettling historic event that's just taken place at global scales, with regard to SST monitoring, makes that bold (abv) come under question. It's quite possibly a faux characterization ( but what's new considering the source ).

The 2/10ths of one full degree C oceanic warm surge ( that seemed to coincide with the demise of the 3-year persistent -ONI that abruptly ended between late Feb and Mar ... hmm) observed at total global complexion, is obscuring the distinction between any presumed warm ENSO onset, vs something else entirely taking place. 

It would be exceptionally difficult to quantize the contribution of either, at this time.  It's not even clear whether the expected +ONI heading into the autumn ... is even creeping to life just yet. 

The quotes - so far .. - emanating out of the standard trustworthy sources ( of which remain unaffiliated and have no compunctions of speaking the truth - sorry for the punch-up! ), make perfect intuitive sense really.  Those advice' aver that the wholesale everywhere warming, the likes of which is empirically observed and is unilaterally all over the planet, does not fit the ONI mode change model.  It has vastly both spatially and temporally outpaced any onset/ modeled ONI index reversal. 

The +ONI would typically begin to express along the equatorial expanse between the Peruvian coast and the NINO 4 region west of the Dateline, first ...and then as it matures, there are subsequent climate responses ... lagged accordingly.  This warming event that has been observed is everywhere, all at once ... really subsuming any other signal at all.

It's kind of obvious.  The SOI doesn't look very +ONI over recent weeks... either.. It's just more of the same problem with the post modern era of extended internet access given to everyone, but most importantly ... to people with enough information to sound convincing when using a macro-scaled podium.  The average person doesn't know to effectively scrutinize the daily dressed out information. 

Not that anyone ask… but you know, if we really want to characterize the present 'post modern internet' era, it may be apropos to consider starting with something like 'hyper-proficient access to false information' era.

 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Really ...?

what are the definitions then.  heh.  I mean, 93/38 was impressive, but too hot. 

74/48 here with unabated sun ... I dunno

We didn’t do 90s… all subjective. Maybe the same.  That was like 6 days of 70-80F and not a cloud.

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.. I guess to each his own... today is like the perfect soothing swimming pool. It's slutty nice...

We'll end up around 75 over DPs and air quality that challenges a Svendsen for purity.

I also admit to a subtle bias re last month.  I knew that it would likely ... inexorably ( if not even cause ) the last 2.5 weeks of Labrador anal inconitnents.  The whole time that week I was not appreciating it because of that foresight, probably one of my most spectacular long range visions actually :axe:.  The nights were also annoyingly chilly back then. 

You know what really stood out for me about that was the extraordinary diurnal recovery - it was a bona fide phenomenon. Sort of a loosely defined personal record.  I mean I've seen 55 F deltas over 24 hours from crazy synoptic scenarios.  But in terms of straight up sun over a nocturnal start, going from 35 to 92 that one day there was ... something I do not recall ever witnessing.

 

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think we’ve (hopefully) put the wheel behind us 

Not sure ...  Ensembles were ugly after mid month.  

I've seen noodles as late as circa May 20 - once while living in Waltham back in ... 2001 I think it was. 

 

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure ...  Ensembles were ugly after mid month.  

I've seen noodles as late as circa May 20 - once while living in Waltham back in ... 2001 I think it was. 

 

Today’s GEFS look better.   I would expect some crud but as you’ve pointed out we’re far from the nadir of misery that is May 2005.   I remember Mother’s Day in the mid 40s with heavy rain.

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No black flies up this way yet.  They are coming though.

Mount Washington and the Presidential Range looking quite caked above 4,000ft from Mt Mansfield.

Portions of the Town of Stowe in the foreground, and the Presidentials on the horizon 60-70 miles away.

345641806_977355129928791_86624860213816

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