May obs/discussion thread - Welcome to Severe Season!!

[DavisStraight]

4 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If I had Taylor swift tickets tomorrow night, I’d be trying to unload those 

I heard people calling in on the radio said they were going for $2,500, is the girl that good? I'd sell them too, no one's worth that much.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The 12z suite has shifted east . Other than the two hi res posted 

Are you drunk?  Or I'm more and more convinced you never look at model guidance (Twitter does not count as looking at model guidance lol).

GFS/GGEM/RGEM/3kNAM/HRRR all westward shifts at 12z.

GFS:

GGEM went west.

 

RGEM went west.

 

[powderfreak]

Toss in the Hirpes too as a big shift westward.

Weird all the mesos like 3km NAM, HRRR, HRDPS, etc are so big way west.  Must have identical algorithms or something.

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Are you drunk?  Or I'm more and more convinced you truly never look at model guidance.  Twitter does not count as looking at model guidance.

GFS/GGEM/RGEM/3kNAM/HRRR all westward shifts at 12z.

GFS:

GGEM went west.

 

RGEM went west.

 

Only hi res shifted west. CMC / GFS/ 12k nam favor SE areas. And 6z euro and gfs went east . We’ll see what 12z does. Fish laid it all out there for you. This favors 95 and SE for heaviest . I’m thinking .25-.50 here give or take. Not sure what you’re not understanding.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Only hi res shifted west. CMC / GFS/ 12k nam favor SE areas. And 6z euro went east . We’ll see what 12z does. Fish laid it all out there for you. This favors 95 and SE for heaviest . I’m thinking .25-.50 here give or take. Not sure what you’re not understanding.

I can't.  I give up. 

Can only show a horse where the water is but can't make him drink it.  

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I can't.  I give up.

Can only show a horse where the water is but can't make him drink it.  

I don't get it either.   Western CT went from fringe to getting 1-2 inches on most models-some even as far back as NJ now...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I hope we don’t end of Stein here with everything so far west 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Toss in the Hirpes too as a big shift westward.

Weird all the mesos like 3km NAM, HRRR, HRDPS, etc are so big way west.  Must have identical algorithms or something.

The finer meshed model types have averaged on the western side of the envelope from what I've been seeing.

This also has some convective aspects to it - just scoping the region LI's they are down to -1..-2 range, so a lot of that probably is also "convective smear" - what's likely to really happen is a generalize .75" along a conduit that's ...say 30 to 40 mile's wide/core of a PWAT plume lifting up EC from subtropics NE of Florida, but within that axis ...a couple of training orange lightning producers with short duration rain rates stripe a 2.25.  I don't see this event as being >3.0" over that large of an area though

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The finer meshed model types have averaged on the western side of the envelope from what I've been seeing.

This also has some convective aspects to it - just scoping the region LI's they are down to -1..-2 range, so a lot of that probably is also "convective smear" - what's likely to really happen is a generalize .75" along a conduit that's ...say 30 to 40 mile's wide/core of a PWAT plume lifting up EC from subtropics NE of Florida, but within that axis ...a couple of training orange lightning producers with short duration rain rates stripe a 2.25.  I don't see this event as being >3.0" over that large of an area though

Yeah agreed.  Usually that stripe means a narrower area of heavy rain training totals, amid a more general widespread rain.  I like your layout... say a narrow stripe of 2-3", among a more widespread 0.75-1.25" or something.

Either way, should be a nice widespread drink.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah agreed.  Usually that stripe means a narrower area of heavy rain training totals, amid a more general widespread rain.  I like your layout... say a narrow stripe of 2-3", among a more widespread 0.75-1.25" or something.

Either way, should be a nice widespread drink.

Need it here-almost nothing since 4/30.   Pollen is thick on everything...

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah agreed.  Usually that stripe means a narrower area of heavy rain training totals, amid a more general widespread rain.  I like your layout... say a narrow stripe of 2-3", among a more widespread 0.75-1.25" or something.

Either way, should be a nice widespread drink.

god I f'n hopes so... 

I mean it won't stop the stein nimrodery but it's like a fetish to try - lol

[weatherwiz]

After tomorrow doesn't look like there is any chance for rain until perhaps next weekend. The drought monitor guru's going to have a field day this week.

[Brian5671]

12z Euro is well east.   Not biting at all.

[Damage In Tolland]

Oh boy 

[powderfreak]

That is a drastic difference than everything else.

That won’t help Kev move off forecasting through fear.

[Typhoon Tip]

Not sure why others are a fighting the westward trend/versions? 

is there something particularly at stake in having it rain or something?

I mean ... it rains the most of what rains ... at night.  So who the f cares.   You can't run humanity on a planet that doesn't rain, so consider yourselves lucky that by 10 am on Sunday it's already 70 with d-slope light tepid breezes under periwinkle blue skies ... with at that time, life nourishing water put back in the bank. 

I don't get it...  Is it maybe because people are seeking some sort of dystopian jerk off over a drought?  You're not getting that anyway

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure why others are a fighting the westward trend/versions? 

is there something particularly at stake in having it rain or something?

I mean ... it rains the most of what rains ... at night.  So who the f cares.   You can't run humanity on a planet that doesn't rain, so consider yourselves lucky that by 10 am on Sunday it's already 70 with d-slope light tepid breezes under periwinkle blue skies ... with at that time, life nourishing water put back in the bank. 

I don't get it...  Is it maybe because people are seeking some sort of dystopian jerk off over a drought?  You're not getting that anyway

Not here-models have it come in at 8am or so and go all day. And outside of this event what else interesting is there to discuss?

[weatherwiz]

51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The finer meshed model types have averaged on the western side of the envelope from what I've been seeing.

This also has some convective aspects to it - just scoping the region LI's they are down to -1..-2 range, so a lot of that probably is also "convective smear" - what's likely to really happen is a generalize .75" along a conduit that's ...say 30 to 40 mile's wide/core of a PWAT plume lifting up EC from subtropics NE of Florida, but within that axis ...a couple of training orange lightning producers with short duration rain rates stripe a 2.25.  I don't see this event as being >3.0" over that large of an area though

I'm a little surprised the interaction with the low tracking north and the front progressing east isn't resulting in a widespread blossoming of precipitation. This is almost like a winter phasing event in a way. The dynamics all around are pretty good with great ulvl divergence across the region. Only thing I'm thinking of is maybe some shortwave subsidence between the two systems? But I 100% agree with you're assessment on this. 

I'm also wondering if the degree of dynamics will result in either a westward shift of QPF axis or a wider QPF axis.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure why others are a fighting the westward trend/versions? 

is there something particularly at stake in having it rain or something?

I mean ... it rains the most of what rains ... at night.  So who the f cares.   You can't run humanity on a planet that doesn't rain, so consider yourselves lucky that by 10 am on Sunday it's already 70 with d-slope light tepid breezes under periwinkle blue skies ... with at that time, life nourishing water put back in the bank. 

I don't get it...  Is it maybe because people are seeking some sort of dystopian jerk off over a drought?  You're not getting that anyway

It’s like a Stockholm Syndrome… don’t want their captor to let them go free.  Need to have a reason to discuss “Stein” and worship it.

An inch of rain is immensely boring as it removes that dialog for at least 7-10 days.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm a little surprised the interaction with the low tracking north and the front progressing east isn't resulting in a widespread blossoming of precipitation. This is almost like a winter phasing event in a way. The dynamics all around are pretty good with great ulvl divergence across the region. Only thing I'm thinking of is maybe some shortwave subsidence between the two systems? But I 100% agree with you're assessment on this. 

I'm also wondering if the degree of dynamics will result in either a westward shift of QPF axis or a wider QPF axis.

PWATS are very high--1.75 or so, as soon as lift comes in should pour one would think

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

PWATS are very high--1.75 or so, as soon as lift comes in should pour one would think

Yeah PWATS pretty impressive for this time of year for sure

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure why others are a fighting the westward trend/versions? 

is there something particularly at stake in having it rain or something?

I mean ... it rains the most of what rains ... at night.  So who the f cares.   You can't run humanity on a planet that doesn't rain, so consider yourselves lucky that by 10 am on Sunday it's already 70 with d-slope light tepid breezes under periwinkle blue skies ... with at that time, life nourishing water put back in the bank. 

I don't get it...  Is it maybe because people are seeking some sort of dystopian jerk off over a drought?  You're not getting that anyway

Nothing wrong with discussing what’s east and what’s west. In the end no one knows . Either way Stein will get lots of discussion as folks enjoy it 

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I hope we don’t end of Stein here with everything so far west 

[Torch Tiger]

Yeah east areas may Stein, we'll see. Not shocked at the models mostly west now.

[Go Kart Mozart]

With the DGZ centered at about 450mbs, what kind of ratios can we expect?

[SouthCoastMA]

Just give me an inch for the lawn. 

Though some of the models look pretty convective overnight..wouldn't be surprised with some localized big numbers in the areas worried about stein. 

[Spanks45]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nothing wrong with discussing what’s east and what’s west. In the end no one knows . Either way Stein will get lots of discussion as folks enjoy it 

Well either the Euro is onto something or on something. I hope it's wrong, we need the rain here. No rain here for almost 2 weeks, it was like mowing the Sahara this week....

[Sn0waddict]

18z has NAM finally made the move west.

[CoastalWx]

east steins 

[CoastalWx]

This favors west imo. Maybe an arc of downpours moves east in evening. I could also see an arc of WAA rains moving in during the aftn.