Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 54 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: 12z Euro looks wet late Sat/Sun. When it’s the outlier and wild and wound up in winter what usually happens?Hope it’s right . Doubt it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When it’s the outlier and wild and wound up in winter what usually happens? Yeah not jumping on wet/wild outcomes, just hoping there's a few decent showers. gfs has a wound up/closed ML low as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 7 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah not jumping on wet/wild outcomes, just hoping there's a few decent showers. gfs has a wound up/closed ML low as well. But not nearly as much rain in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 17 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah not jumping on wet/wild outcomes, just hoping there's a few decent showers. gfs has a wound up/closed ML low as well. True, in winter folks would be trying to focus on mid-levels at this point, while QPF queens get weenied. If anything QPF maps in the warm season will be worse given the convection and forcing mechanisms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 Probably the best Mayorch of our lives minus no rains. What a spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Anyone else noticing a lot of smoke in the air this evening? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: Anyone else noticing a lot of smoke in the air this evening? It’s coming down to the ground next 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 24 minutes ago, dendrite said: Anyone else noticing a lot of smoke in the air this evening? Haziest sunset yet here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Probably the best Mayorch of our lives minus no rains. What a spring The lack of rain this early isn't great. A lot of smokey skies, dead vegetation, and brush fires if it doesn't change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 MEX with 26° at CON Thu morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 30 minutes ago, dendrite said: MEX with 26° at CON Thu morning. Ktan 29. Hope all those who rushed to plant veggies cover up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Hopefully we freeze and break some records! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Ktan 29. Hope all those who rushed to plant veggies cover up. BML and HIE 17° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Burning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2023 Author Share Posted May 16, 2023 I'd really like to take some time someday and dig around to see how well the NBM fares compared to MAV/MET. Tomorrow night could be a real fun example to look at. Tomorrow night all about radiation I suppose. Here are some differences MAV, MET, NBM BTV: 31/32/35 BDL: 36/32/36 BOS: 41/42/43 EWR: 42/43/47 CON: 27/26/32 TAN: 29/30/36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2023 Author Share Posted May 16, 2023 Actually this is probably where the NBM probabilities come in huge. Tomorrow would certainly be a night where you probably go with the lowest percentile of the temperature forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 If this smoke keeps up, toss those lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2023 Author Share Posted May 16, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: If this smoke keeps up, toss those lows. I was just thinking that...I wonder if the NBM is factoring that in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I was just thinking that...I wonder if the NBM is factoring that in? I don’t think it specifically models smoke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Ktan 29. Hope all those who rushed to plant veggies cover up. only things not in a tunnel are garlic and sugar snap peas. we know better. --- looking like a good chance at some beneficial rains here this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2023 Author Share Posted May 16, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: I don’t think it specifically models smoke? does it factor into the sky cover percentage maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2023 Author Share Posted May 16, 2023 Doesn't even seem like the HRRR is picking up this smoke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Was it smoky yesterday? It was definitely not as nice as forecast with temps struggling through the low 60's, but it felt chillier. I wonder if the smoke contributed to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2023 Author Share Posted May 16, 2023 Pretty soon all of North America will be covered in smoke. This is what the dinosaurs must have encountered before they went extinct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Doesn't even seem like the HRRR is picking up this smoke... There is a HRRR smoke model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2023 Author Share Posted May 16, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: There is a HRRR smoke model. I was checking that and it wasn't showing anything. I checked the Vertically Integrated Smoke and 1000/6000 AGL products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2023 Author Share Posted May 16, 2023 Saturday does look pretty decent for some widespread precipitation within the region. Some folks will get lucky with some heavier rains with convection. Pretty decent dynamics aloft and strong shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If this smoke keeps up, toss those lows. In cases where it’s thinner…doesn’t it affect shortwave rad more than longwave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supernovice Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Interesting paper on the impacts of the Australian Wildfires in 2019-2020. Interesting how the smoke doesn't get into the stratosphere but still impacts sensible weather. good read. TLDR- Contributed to the 3 yr long (unprecedented) La Nina. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01588-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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