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May obs/discussion thread - Welcome to Severe Season!!


weatherwiz
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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

None knows you.. cares about what you post . Let’s keep it that way by having you make more posts like this . Keep wearing your mask outdoors alone, while driving in your car alone , and getting your boosters . 

The smoke from those fires isn’t that thick yet, certainly not enough to warrant a mask. <ducks>

37/32 at 10pm, should be a hard freeze. 

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4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Any takers on the D10 Euro blue bomb

A GFS long range fantasy run the other day had snow showers down to Long Island. Long range ensemble guidance is in good agreement, with the caveat that it probably won’t snow. Several days of double digit negative temperature anomalies do seem probable later next week.

 

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28 minutes ago, Quincy said:

A GFS long range fantasy run the other day had snow showers down to Long Island. Long range ensemble guidance is in good agreement, with the caveat that it probably won’t snow. Several days of double digit negative temperature anomalies do seem probable later next week.

 

TPV incoming? We can't do Alberta Clippers but we do Alberta Smokers very well. Nothing better than 30s and 40s in late May

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31° for the low here.  My boiler stays on year round.  I turned it off one summer and the seals all dried out and it started leaking all over the basement floor.  The thermostat is off when the windows are open but I closed them last night and set the temp to 64°.  It didn't feel like the radiators were warm so the house didn't get too chilly.

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Stein must have some sort o built-in algorithm that won't display any products indicating precipitation potential. I don't know how one can be concerned with a "dry pattern". There should be ample precipitation chances over the next few weeks and potential should be more synoptic then convective. Hoping we switch things going into June and we can get more convective chances with any synoptic rains tied into northward advancing warm fronts with advecting EML's where we go from 7-9 AM rain/thunder to full sun and 90's over 70 by noon.

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9 hours ago, Quincy said:

A GFS long range fantasy run the other day had snow showers down to Long Island. Long range ensemble guidance is in good agreement, with the caveat that it probably won’t snow. Several days of double digit negative temperature anomalies do seem probable later next week.

 

Yeah, not that you asked me personally for this but ... I'm not sure it reaches the extremeness of those GFS operational runs. 

There's two "model correction vectors" I bear in mind, and they are both formulated from personal observation stemming the last 10 or so years of transition season guidance performance - and also...admittedly a soupcon of climate change may be involved in that but won't get into that aspect ...

The first is that the models tend to seasonal regression beyond D7's  ... It gives me the impression they don't "move the chains" ?  It's like the season is changing ... but they try to correct it out of the runs, out in time, and end up two weeks to a month behind climatology by the end. This seems to be the case more so in the GFS...

The second is that the models tend to have an amplitude bias out in time, regardless of season ...

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31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's just an excuse for those who didn't install. They act like their freezing when reality is they're melting in a puddle of sweat. 

Says the weenie that posted for years about being cold all of the time and wearing winter jackets in summer. Getting some meat on those bones with age?

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

31° for the low here.  My boiler stays on year round.  I turned it off one summer and the seals all dried out and it started leaking all over the basement floor.  The thermostat is off when the windows are open but I closed them last night and set the temp to 64°.  It didn't feel like the radiators were warm so the house didn't get too chilly.

We use ours for domestic hot water, so it runs all year

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Says the weenie that posted for years about being cold all of the time and wearing winter jackets in summer. Getting some meat on those bones with age?

I wish. 

I still hate A/C but the house gets insanely hot and I have no clue why. I'm going to try and hold off putting it in the window as long as possible, but I know my girlfriend will want it soon. But even yesterday...it was a good 10-15F hotter inside then it was outside. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I had the heat on last week. Didn’t have it on this morning. I think the latest I’ve ever had it on was back several years ago when we were in the 40s in early June. One of those wheels of rhea.

2005…Jun 2015…2025 next?

I caved once in early July 2007. Too many low 40s that only recovered into the mid 60s. 

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