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May obs/discussion thread - Welcome to Severe Season!!


weatherwiz
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  On 5/3/2023 at 1:48 PM, dryslot said:

The people up here that were giddy back this winter when winter didn't show up until mid Jan or so are not so giddy now and as i told them then, Be careful what you wish for as it will end up being a late season and a crappy spring outside of that one good week last month.

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Word. 

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It's interesting looking over hi res vis loops... These convective explosions are actually capping below the cirrus altitudes.   Looks like more of those altostratus layer anvil types we saw yesterday.  

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'low confidence' hypothesis:  with all this onshore flow ( E, N of BOS latitude, and SE over the Bite Waters) we are plagued with, might this be an environmental ( lagged) feed-back to upping SSTs for mid and late summers around the horn...

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Telecon spread still favors, at minumum, a relaxation of this shit ... I'd call that a crucial staged improvement ... if for our own sanity alone LOL.   No but, the La Nina "firewall" (inhibition) is pretty much dead... That's critical in the analysis that the present powerful Marine sub-continental MJO presentation may actually have some success in dispersion/ R-wave modulation across the Pacific and eventually into the western Hemisphere.  The trick is, ...that term "eventually"

It is not clear if the [apparent] lack of coherency in doing so, to date, is merely because we are in the lag window... i.e., perhaps the physical forcing isn't getting into the framework quite proficiently enough. When/if it does ... somewhat of a wholesale correction washes over the guidance. Or, the relaxation discussed above, maybe that is all we get from it?

It is possible that a synoptic warm burst is embedded in that May ~ 10 to 20th time frame... if not a more obvious warmer look than what we are seeing now, too.  SO there's that....

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  On 5/3/2023 at 3:20 PM, CoastalWx said:

More rain.

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I have an idea that Thursday might sneak pepper some proper anvil height activity around, as this p.o.s. circulation mutes to just being a residual shearing mid level cold pool by then, but we are warming beneath via more sun penetration.  Friday too -

not a big deal, but BL will destabilize more than guidance shows if we get better near solar max sun intensity before noons...

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  On 5/3/2023 at 2:45 PM, Sn0waddict said:

OKX radar down again? Ugh it was finally working again yesterday too.

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extremely frustrating, cant get a damn baseball in for the kids 5 of the last 6 rained out.. today borderline with the infield currently under water and no idea if another heavy shower is imminent

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  On 5/2/2023 at 10:31 PM, dryslot said:

This one for the Andros this year is not even in the top 10 but shows the magnitude of how devastating 1987 was when it was second all time to 1936's devastation being 13' is flood stage.

IMG_2449.jpg

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The 1936 event included ice jams on some Maine rivers.  None of the current USGS sites for the main Kennebec stem go back to 1936 but both the Sandy and Carrabassett do.  1987 peak flows were 1/3 greater than 1936 on the Sandy and 2/3 greater on the C'bassett, so the Kennebec peak flow was undoubtedly above 1936.  Below Augusta, however, the marks on the Cobbossee bridge in Gardiner show 1936 as about 1.5 feet higher than 1987, thanks to a major ice jam downstream at Richmond, hung on both the Richmond-Dresden bridge and Swan Island.
May precip thru this morning was only 0.10" below the month avg; it may be AN by now.

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  On 5/3/2023 at 4:19 PM, CoastalWx said:

Remember when some said it will only be a day of bad weather and it will warm as we get closer? :lol:    #someknew

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This wasn't one of those really weak ULLS with like 2 closed geopotential height lines that you sometimes can have fall apart a bit as you get closer or not have as much instability. This was pretty deep, cold, and advertised pretty well in advance.

Maybe we can flip the pattern toward mid-month.

 

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  On 5/3/2023 at 5:52 PM, ORH_wxman said:

This wasn't one of those really weak ULLS with like 2 closed geopotential height lines that you sometimes can have fall apart a bit as you get closer or not have as much instability. This was pretty deep, cold, and advertised pretty well in advance.

Maybe we can flip the pattern toward mid-month.

 

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I was hoping so, but getting a little nervous. This is a pretty impressive omega block and while there are some signs it relaxes a bit next week, there are emerging signals it may re-develop. And these intense omega blocks can be a PITA to get rid off. 

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  On 5/3/2023 at 4:19 PM, CoastalWx said:

Remember when some said it will only be a day of bad weather and it will warm as we get closer? :lol:    #someknew

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It actually did exactly that. Instead of 30’s/40’s and rains and wet snows that some Mets and circles had on here ..it was was 50’s/ low 60’s with one bad day yesterday that at least had thunderstorms and hail. 

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