Severe Weather 4-25 through 4-28-23

[Quincy]

A sustained storm is developing near Abilene, but composite outflow/frontal boundary to the east continues to drift south.

Better low level moisture remains displaced to the south and east, out toward Waco and into southeast Texas. 

Hail would appear to be the main threat in the short term. If any supercells develop in the warm sector, and/or storms closer to the surface low encounter better moisture, a more substantial tornado threat could be realized. 

[weatherextreme]

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 169
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   250 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Central Texas

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 250 PM
     until 1000 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
       inches in diameter likely
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Supercells capable of producing multiple tornadoes, very
   large hail, and damaging/severe winds are expected to develop and
   spread southeastward this afternoon and evening. Some of the
   tornadoes could be strong, and damaging winds will likely become a
   greater concern this evening as thunderstorms grow upscale into a
   bowing cluster.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 20 miles west southwest of Brownwood
   TX to 50 miles north of Huntsville TX. For a complete depiction of
   the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU9).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 168...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean
   storm motion vector 28035.

[weatherextreme]

DFW been taken out of the main threat zone.  Shifted South

 

[weatherextreme]

Reed following the storm out towards Abilene.  On the boundary

 

 

[Quincy]

6 minutes ago, weatherextreme said:

Reed following the storm out towards Abilene.  On the boundary

 

 

It’s well north of the boundary, which is also continuing to move south. 

 

[radarman]

That cell SW of the metroplex headed generally toward Stephenville is a beast.  

[WhirlingWx]

pretty nice radar structure on the tornado warned storm west of Waco 

[cheese007]

Just now, WhirlingWx said:

pretty nice radar structure on the tornado warned storm west of Waco 

Tor warned now

[weatherextreme]

Jason Cooley stream showing some rotation 

 

 

[cheese007]

Nasty hook heading into Waco 

[cheese007]

https://www.kwtx.com/2023/04/26/late-day-evening-severe-thunderstorms-expected/ nasty wall cloud

[weatherextreme]

Brad might be on that same wall cloud

https://youtu.be/Fu5c9VYz4_I

[Quincy]

Chasing the storm near Waco:

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Has to be getting ready to do it, just south of Mart:

[weatherextreme]

Brad Arnold just stated he has a lowering on stream

 

https://youtu.be/Fu5c9VYz4_I

[weatherextreme]

Brett on the same storm

 

https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brett.adair

[cheese007]

Edited topic to reflect today's broad slight risk area and the D2 enahnced risk focused on NTX

 

[Sydney Claridge]

Might want to extend this thread into the 28th; we have another severe thunderstorm threat on Friday it seems. (cheese007 made the edits while I was posting this)

SPC is mentioning a large hail threat (30% hatched, hence the ENH), along with some tornado potential especially in north TX if storms don't get undercut (currently 5% on the outlook). DFW dodged a bullet yesterday (4/26), so we'll have to see if we can do it again tomorrow (4/28) or if our luck will run out; I know some of the model runs in the run-up to yesterday were showing the activity closer to and over DFW.

I always get a little concerned when there's a localized severe storm threat centered on DFW.

[Powerball]

My suspicion is that tomorrow will be a repeat of the past 2 events, in that the best potential ends up just SE of DFW.

These shortwaves have a tendency to end up less compact (thus the fronts also move through faster) once we're in the range for CAMs. Besides, this is one of those setups where while there might be better daytime heating, moisture will be more limited and it will take the entire balance of the day to break the cap for widespread activity (the front is currently proejcted to move through mid-afternoon)

Waco and Tyler have both been on a role this season though.

[Chinook]

This one is just for Quincy, our resident storm chaser- tornado warning for Quincy, Florida

 

[Chinook]

the tornado was confirmed near Havana, which is near Quincy

[Chinook]

we have a NASA tornado warning going on. supercell FFD over Cape Canaveral

[Chinook]

I hope these storms don't hit anybody, or a launchpad

 

[Chinook]

The 18z HRRR today has a supercell starting up over Fort Worth tomorrow. Other CAM models seem to agree on a squall line forming at some point, before 00z, with the cold front. 18z models have some 3500J/kg-4500 J/kg before the front. The NAM-12km shows shear values of 30-40 kt but there's some disagreement on that. Storm relative helicity may be increasing, even without any really high winds at 850mb.

[cstrunk]

Today looks to me like a south of DFW I-35 hail special. 

[weatherextreme]

 Southward shift in severe with the latest outlook (From DFW) 

 

[weatherextreme]

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

On 4/26/2023 at 5:44 PM, cheese007 said:

Nasty hook heading into Waco 

How that didn't produce a tornado, I do not know.  I was watching Ryan Hall's YouTube stream, an I thought ACT was in trouble.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

4 hours ago, cstrunk said:

Today looks to me like a south of DFW I-35 hail special. 

The HRRR seems to suggest I-20 itself may be the effective boundary, which might put some of the bigger Metroplex cities like Arlington in play.

[Powerball]

On 4/27/2023 at 12:11 PM, Powerball said:

My suspicion is that tomorrow will be a repeat of the past 2 events, in that the best potential ends up just SE of DFW.

These shortwaves have a tendency to end up less compact (thus the fronts also move through faster) once we're in the range for CAMs. Besides, this is one of those setups where while there might be better daytime heating, moisture will be more limited and it will take the entire balance of the day to break the cap for widespread activity (the front is currently proejcted to move through mid-afternoon)

Waco and Tyler have both been on a role this season though.

Just as I figured, that's exactly how it's evolving.