weatherextreme Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 Mesoscale Discussion 0646 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Areas affected...parts of central and north Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 281725Z - 282000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon with convective initiation expected between 2-3pm near the triple point. Large to giant hail (1-3 inches in diameter), severe gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes are possible over central TX. Large hail and severe gusts are possible farther north over North Texas. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a stratocumulus field near and east of I-35 from San Antonio northward through Waco. This cloud feature is located within a plume of richer low-level moisture (ranging from the lower 60s north to upper 60s south) advancing north in association with a warm front. Strong heating is occurring near and south of a triple point 35 mi east of Abilene to areas southward along and east of a dryline where temperatures are rising through the 80s. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs by mid-late afternoon near the warm frontal zone with a very unstable airmass (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) located from the warm front south-southwestward into the Hill Country. As the cap erodes from the early into the mid afternoon, explosive thunderstorm development is expected initially near the triple point with storms rapidly becoming supercellular. Large to giant hail is forecast with this initial activity with a tornado risk probably developing before additional storms and convective coalescence lead to upscale growth into the early evening. The tornado risk will probably lessen upon full transition to linear modes. Farther north near the Metroplex and areas along I-20, weaker buoyancy and less favorable hodographs according to forecast soundings, will limit the severe risk to large hail and severe gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 One tornado and one severe watch, and a tornado warning already. Radar confirmed near Comanche. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/bob.pack Bob is close to the Tornado warned storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 The blue part on the CC is not tornado damage here, and probably doesn't represent damage from the confirmed tornado, which is apparently already over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 This might be the main show of the day, as mainly linear storms could be coming up in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 Think it was mentioned from Reeds stream that they have a rain wrapped Tornado or wall cloud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 Tds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 Just now, weatherextreme said: Think it was mentioned from Reeds stream that they have a rain wrapped Tornado or wall cloud Bob Pack said he may have caught a glimpse of it but it's definitely rain wrapped. Strong couplet with a CC drop beginning to show up. Likely TOG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 Pidcoke had a tornado warning two days ago, now this one is hopefully not next to populated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 Reflectivity looks like it's trying to form an eye... like a hurricane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 Looks like the RFD may be taking over. The velocity was pretty classic for the last few minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 Reed just confirmed TOG on stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 I can't see it, but on YouTube, Reed Timmer thinks he sees a hail and rain wrapped tornado. I don't know why his cell signal is always worse than others. Edit to Add: I know he'd go through 5 or 10 windshields a season for hail, but he has the money to replace them when they get this bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 Bob has some nasty looking clouds on stream https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/bob.pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, weatherextreme said: Bob has some nasty looking clouds on stream https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/bob.pack Very green hail core headed that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 The line is getting linear. Reflectivity still shows a lot of hail. I know VIL is very 2005, but if that is any guide, hail will be reaching Austin/I-35 in the next two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 Reed believes the storm he is on could possibly produce a Tornado 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 My son graduates in 3 weeks from Texas State. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TXZ191&warncounty=TXC209&firewxzone=TXZ191&local_place1=3 Miles E Woodcreek TX&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Warning&lat=30.034&lon=-98.0629#.ZExGz3bMJFQ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 How old are you? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 It looks like the northern supercell has tried to redevelop rotation near Hearne. This might not really lead to anything, as this system seems to be dominated by the linear features. The larger cell by San Antonio could track into town with large hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 28 minutes ago, WaryWarren said: How old are you? lol 59. Old enough to miss school for the Blizzard of '78. Nowhere near as old as Jerry from the New England forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 Judging by radar, decent hail core into NW Bexar County, will affect N Side San Antonio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 Got ping pong ball sized hail 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 41 minutes ago, Chargers09 said: Got ping pong ball sized hail Noticing #txwx on Twitter and this forum die for Houston or San Antonio weather. East Coast biased forum, and here, very much DFW based. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 17 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Noticing #txwx on Twitter and this forum die for Houston or San Antonio weather. East Coast biased forum, and here, very much DFW based. That's because there really isn't anyone on here from San Antonio or Houston. You're the only one that posts regularly. Everyone else is from North Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 I’m in San Antonio lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted April 30, 2023 Share Posted April 30, 2023 On 4/28/2023 at 6:48 PM, Chargers09 said: Got ping pong ball sized hail Did you have any damage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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