cheese007 Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 Got a set of SPC 15% risks lined up for late week. Nothing wild as of yet but something to watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 Today was mostly a cap bust, aside from a couple storms near the Kansas/Nebraska border. Wednesday is a complex setup. That’s an understatement. Upper level troughing across the Rockies with several disturbances impinging on the central Plains during the second half of the day. Models are having issues with low pressure placement tomorrow, which will be rather important. In typical 2023 fashion, the NAM and HRRR are on opposite extreme ends of the spectrum. NAM is juiced and shows May-like moisture in central Kansas. The HRRR wildly mixes out. The truth will likely be in the middle. If moisture leans toward the more robust progs, you’d expect the triple point(s) to be the main focus for convective initiation. The southern Plains dryline may stay capped again, although moisture quality for Wednesday will be at least somewhat better than it was today. CAMs were much more aggressive last night into the 12z suite today. Most recent 00z CAMs are subdued with capping winning out, until near or after 00z Thursday. I’m not even going to pretend I have a confident forecast on this one. Going to sleep on it and see how observational trends look in the morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 NAM has the moisture farther west than the previous runs. I think the CAMs are more aggressive with firing storms near the front, or even on the cold side of the front. There's not a lot of agreement between the HRRR and the other ones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 Honestly I still have no idea if there will be a lot of severe weather reports, but the pattern seems right for several storms, and the CAMs have varying solutions, with some storms that might be elevated, but still capable of large hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 Storm is tornado warned now moving into the south OKC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 tornado confirmed near I-240 at about 7:00 central Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Reed Timmer has a tornado with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 20, 2023 Author Share Posted April 20, 2023 Bigtime tor on Reed's stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Debris ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 About to be another to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Shocked this thread isn’t exploding. That was a big tornado heading into OKC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Storm south of OKC is cycling. Also holy cow that cell west Emporia has that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 A good bit of CIN in place I think keeping a lid on things. Energy, shear and helicity are all through the roof. All could easily support a violent tornado, we’ll see if the Emporia one could break thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 20, 2023 Author Share Posted April 20, 2023 Ryan Pitt has a good size lowering on his stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Etowah OK, confirmed tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 The Sometimes Weather Channel just gave KS and OK the bird. Airheads Go to Peru has just preempted the 2 ongoing tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 It doesn’t get much more classic than this earlier tonight. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Those tornado warning boxes are covering like three counties... but there are 6 different ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 20, 2023 Author Share Posted April 20, 2023 Shawnee about to take a direct hit from a pretty nasty circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Uh oh Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 945 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 OKC125-200315- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-230420T0315Z/ Pottawatomie OK- 945 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY... At 945 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Tecumseh, moving east at 25 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Shawnee, Tecumseh, Earlsboro, and Bethel Acres. This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 191 and 194. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, an extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room, or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3524 9700 3532 9703 3536 9696 3540 9678 3524 9678 TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 255DEG 23KT 3529 9697 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Norman Twitter is fascinating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 1 minute ago, yoda said: Norman Twitter is fascinating 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 This storm's entire life has been filled with weirdness, mesocyclonically speaking. The cell splitting in two and then having the two mesos dance the Fujiwara before actually recombining back to a single cell is just par for the course, and also totally insane. Watched the whole development on radar from far far away, unfortunately... But what a storm - simply amazing evolution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 It's becoming predictable where the next rotation will be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 42 minutes ago, ct_yankee said: This storm's entire life has been filled with weirdness, mesocyclonically speaking. The cell splitting in two and then having the two mesos dance the Fujiwara before actually recombining back to a single cell is just par for the course, and also totally insane. Watched the whole development on radar from far far away, unfortunately... But what a storm - simply amazing evolution. It's like Grand Island's Night of the Twisters for central Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Well today was quite the day to say the least. First photo is the monstrous supercell and large tornado near Cole OK in the bottom right. This was, hands down, the best storm structure I've ever seen. At dusk prior to producing the Etowah OK tornado. More phenomenal structure. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Uh... what kind of watchbox is this supposed to be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Damn 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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